Daft's week 4

[daft_picks]

Posting some plays I'm putting in, as well as one I put in earlier this week:

Bengals -3.5 over Browns (-105): (to win 1.5 units)
I think the home team gets it done in this pick a winner situation. The Bengals finally showed some heart last weekend and I think they get this win and cover.

Chargers -7 over Raiders (-110) (to win 1.5 units)
Sorry I didn't post this earlier in the week, but I jumped all over that -7 when this line came out. I think the Chargers are fired up and will lay the hurt on the Raiders. I think they cover this spread easy IMO.

Cards +1.5 over Jets (-105):
I think the Cardinals passing game will exploit the Jets questionable secondary and make Farve beat them in the air. The Jets are at home but still considered dogs if you take away the 3 for homefield. I think this is correct and they will be slightly overmatched.

Titans -3 over Vikings (-115)
Standard homer play for one unit, I think the Titans get it done this week at home in this pick-a-winner situation. Good matchup regardless.

Panthers -6.5 over Falcons (-105):
This was a tough play for me to consider making, but I think it is the right one. Again in a pick-a-winner situation, I have to go with the more experienced Carolina squad rather than the hot (but overall untested) Atlanta team. Atlanta's wins are versus Detroit and KC, until they beat a real team on the road I'll play against them.

Eagles -3 over Bears (-115):
Despite injuries I feel the Eagles cruise to victory over the bears. Two great defenses here, only one good offense. That's the team that gets my money.

Steelers -5 over Ravens (-105): Another game between 2 very good defenses where again I'll take the better offense with the more experienced quarterback at the helm.

*all plays to win 1 unit unless otherwise marked*


Dream 6 point teaser:
Browns/Bengals Over 38.5
Chargers(SanDiego) -1.5
Panthers(Carolina) -0.5
Jaguars(Jacksonville) -1
Steelers(Pittsburgh) +1

1 to win 4.5 units


GLTA this weekend, let's make the man pay

[daft_picks]

Can't find a total I feel solid enough about to lay on in the first round of games, but I did find one prop I like:

Will there be a score in the first 6.5 minutes of the Browns/Bengals game?

YES (-120) to win 1 unit

GLTA on sunday!! And go Titans!!

[daft_picks]

Prop was $$$, too bad about Palmer being out never would have bet on Cinci -3.5 knowing that. Oh well still has a chance. Adding plays for later:

Cowboys -10 over Skins (-110): 1 unit
I see a rout here, always a tough match but I think Dallas will win by DD.


Silly Rams parlay:
Rams ML +300
Total over 43.5
0.3 to win 2 units


BTW it's 34-0 Jets at the half...didn't see that one coming. So glad I was able to pick up Laverneous Coles on my fantasy team, 3 TD's!!

GO TITANS!!!

[daft_picks]

3-3 so far on this crazy NFL sunday. Some good reads and some terrible ones. Couple night game plays:

Adding one unit to Philly -3. I know Westbrook will be limited and that Philly is banged up but I still like them to win. Anything could happen though of course. Got this one at -110 so essentially laying 2.25 to win 2 units.

For some crazy reason I am also going to put a half unit on the over, I see some scores happening this game.

Eagles/Bears OVER 39.5 (-110) to win .5 units

2 prop plays:
Will Kyle Orton have more TD's or INT's?
INTERCEPTIONS +110 0.5 to win 0.55 units
Longest FG of game?
OVER 43.5 yards (-120) 1.2 to win 1 unit


Best of luck to everyone!

[akatdrake]

NIce win for your Titans over my Vikes today, turnovers killed us. Good luck on your late bets!

[daft_picks]

Seems the Titans win was the best thing that happened to me yesterday. That and I finally won my fantasy week! It seems I can't win in both wagering and fantasy however. Brutal losses last night, Philly has many chances (including not 1 but 2 FG chances to win my prop bet, I was counting on Akers). Oh well. Recapping:

Sides 3-4 -2.47 units
Totals 1-0 +0.5 units
Props 1-2 -0.75 units
Parlay 0-1 -.0.3 units

Total -3.02 units

1 unit pending on Pitt -5, what do you guys think about the total tonight? 34, so low, but under still could be the right play. Lots of props tonight for sure though:

First score of the game?
Any score but a TD +110 1 unit

Rashard Mendenhall first rush?
UNDER 3.5 yards (-115) to win .5 units

Will Willis McGahee score a TD?
NO -130 1.95 to win 1.5 units

Will the Ravens score a rushing TD?
YES +135 1.5 to win 2 units

My thinking with the last two is that if the Ravens score a rushing TD it will be someone else since McGahee is recovering from an eye laceration. Either way most likely will break even on those two but worth a shot here. May add a unit on Pitt later if I feel up to it!

GLTA tonight, will update YTD sometime this week!

[daft_picks]

OT is never good for a 5 points of chalk, glad the Ravens lost even though I was on the wrong side. Let them simmer until they face the titans next week

Luckily saved my week on tonight's props, especially lucky that my wish came true and McClain got the score! For the night:

Sides 0-1 -1.05 units
Props 4-0 +5.1 units

YTD will shortly reflect, congrats to all on the Ravens tonight a very smart play. BOL next week!