NFL Week 4

[Stifler's Mom]

ats 18-16 (+1.90 units)
dog ml's 5-11 (-4 units)
overall 23-27 (-2.10 units)

Trying to keep the reasoning rather simple today, as I'm going to be on practically every side and I don't want my fingers to fall off from typing....

New Orleans 'Aints -4.5

SF seems to be a sexy pick this week as a road dog, and I hear much talk about how they have improved. But lets look at the teams SF has beaten. Seattle and Detroit. Between them they have 1 win, against the absolute worst team in the NFL, the St Louis Lambs.

Therefore what do the 3 of these teams have in common (SF, DET and SEA)?

All 3 of them have beaten exactly NO ONE.

I'd say 1-2 against Tampa, @ Washington and @ Denver (a game the 'Aints should have won), is far more impressive than SF's phony 2-1.

SF has Al Gore, yes, and the guy is a beast, but until I see them do it against a legit NFL team, I'm not convinced SF is any good, and their numbers vs these NFL door mats doesn't prove poo in my book.

IMO this is a classic situation of perception vs reality, and the reality in my book is that the 'Aints have a better shot to win this game than SF does.

So I'll just pick the winner.

Carolina Panthers -7 (-105)

See above. Atlanta has beaten KC and Detroit. So freakin what. Going on the road to Carolina is a bit different. So I'll just pick the winner.

If you're gonna play Atlanta here, you have to ask yourself....do you really see Atlanta upsetting Carolina today? If so, then by all means go for it. I do not however, so this is an easy choice to lay the -7.

Tampon Bay Bucs -1

I think the wheels just officially fell off the GB bandwagon from everyone jumping on it.

Green Bay is a .500 team, and that's exactly where they will be after today.

This line is WAY OFF, and TB @ -1 is a complete gift.

KC Chiefs +10

I know, i know, the Chiefs suck. But 3-0 Denver has benefited from a somewhat favorable schedule, and are VERY lucky to be 3-0. I mean on the field both SD beat them (the Hoculi incident) and so did the Aints (missed fg and all the close calls went Denver's way in that one too), even if the final score didn't indicate as much.

KC may suck, but the bottom line is Denver doesn't seem to be able to stop anyone, and 10 points is a big mountain to climb on the road when your defense isn't shutting people down because it not only increases the points needed to cover, but it also limits possessions for your offense, and makes a back door cover all the more likely as well.

Minnesota Viqueens +3 (+105)

I don't mean to keep picking on Tennessee, but I'm just not sold on them, while i think Minnesota is a better team than their results indicate to this point.

TEN has been without a doubt the beneficiary of a cupcake schedule so far.

In week 1, they caught a really banged up JAX team. TEN did nothing on offense in that game worth speaking of, but they won because JAX did even less.

Then in week 2 they got a CIN team who isn't very good and, who TEN is better than, and whom they could physically dominate, which led to a convincing victory.

Then in week 3 they get HOU, and on the surface, the 31-12 win looks rather convincing. The final score last week vs HOU was nowhere near an indicator of how that game was played, however. HOU could just as easily have won that game outright as they did lose it by 19 points.

The Texases were forever in the Tennessee red zone it seemed, and racked up well over 300 yards of total offense, and over 100 on the ground. Not outstanding numbers, but they are very good, and HOU isn't exactly the 49er's of the late 80's on offense either. I also believe there was a late defensive TD for TEN, making the game look even more unrealistic on the scoreboard.

Now Kudos must be given to the TEN defense for keeping HOU out of the end zone on all those possessions, but it also has to be considered that HOU got the ball there, seemingly with ease for most of the game, and not everyone is as bad/dumb as HOU and will either get the ball in the end zone, or be smart enough to kick the short fg's and keep themselves in the game.

Which leads me to my point that the TEN defense is IMO overrated, and obviously can have the ball moved on them. In addition, I believe MIN actually has the better defense, and is the better team.

The final straw that made this a play for me today is that the oddsmakers seem to agree, as 3-0 Tennessee is only giving the standard -3 for home field advantage to 1-2 MIN, and while 71% are laying the measly fg for the undefeated home squad, the line has not moved to +3.5 or beyond, but rather they are just juicing the -3.

NY Jets -1

The Jets aren't very good, granted, but they ran into a SD buzz saw last week on MNF, and the week prior in the first game NE was without Brady. These was no way those 2 very talented teams were going to allow the Jets to beat them in the situations they were in.

Wins over SF (a game in which ARIZ benefited from a PLUS 5 turnover ratio and still didn't win very convincingly) and Miami do not thrill me, and I see this Cardinals team as just more of the same. Talented in some areas, but not a complete enough team to win on the road in the NFL.

Like I said last week, Kurt Warner has always been a turnover machine (even when he and the Lambs won the super bowl, they led the league in turnovers), and that just might be the difference today, as it's not often Favre gets to go up against an opposing QB who is capable of committing more turnovers than him on a regular basis.

Bottom line is that getting anyone as a pick em at home vs ARIZ is always worth a shot until they prove otherwise, which they have not done to this point.

2 team teaser @ -120:

Cleveland/Cincinnati under 51
Buffalo -2.5

As if it wasn't enough that the Lambs are a bad team, now they've apparently quit on their lame duck coach. I'm really doubting the Lambs had a solid week of practice and are ready to right the ship this week with all the distractions that are going on with them.

I gave them pass for getting hammered by PHI, and then again by NYG, but there's just no excuse for getting pissed all over by the Seachickens, who everyone knows are without most of their team an their QB is playing injured.

Buffalo would really have to fall down a real **** spiral to lose to these guys, imho.

And, i think the public is looking for another shootout between the God awful Browns and Bungles. Now what exactly has either of these teams done on offense this year to lead anyone to believe they are going to both pile up points in this game? That's right, nothing. They are both different offensive teams from when that game happened, and I think this will be a close boring game, with both teams struggling to reach 20.

I also just now got an update from Sports Insights (long after I made this play earlier this morning) that Carson Palmer is OUT. So take that for what it's worth, although I now see both this total and the CIN -3.5 tanking down everywhere, so it must be official....

Oakland Raiderettes +8.5

I'm not sure what to think of Oakland, to be honest, but one thing I do know is that they played hard last week, on the road, and against an above average Bills team (no, i'm not going to go praising the Bills as the best team on earth just because they are 3-0). I think the Raiders are big enough, strong enough, and talented enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game close @ home, against a SD team who is having obvious problems getting off the field defensively. SD is giving up over 31 ppg (29 to even the Jets, lol), and if that holds true today, they will require 40+ to cover.

I don't think chances are all that great that OAK will hit 31, but I do think they can get into the mid to high 20's, and still, if you can get a home dog in the NFL of this size who you think can put up 20 some points, it's usually a good play.

Chicago Bears +3 (+105)

Running out of time here to get this posted. I will try to give my thoughts on this game sometime later today....

2 units each

Minnesota Viqueens ml +140
Chicago Bears ml +150

1 unit each

[Underdog88]

GL Stif

[Stifler's Mom]

When do I get to benefit from a backdoor fave cover?

I sure get ****ed by em often enough

[hook11050]

good week stif, by the looks of it, its a positive sunday..GL with whatever you play monday night..

[Underdog88]

great day

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks man. Would have been even nicer if the Raiders weren't such a bunch of douche bags. That was probably worse when freakin some stupid college hoops team is getting like +11.5 and they're back and forth the whole game, until the fave finally takes a 4 or 5 pt lead with about a minute to go and they foul like 17 times and end up losing by like 18 points. I mean that was just plain old "i quit. I'm on the Raiders and we suck, so just go ahead and run free and score another meaningless TD L.T."

Wishin i had played Houston too like I was going to also, although something about a team playing in their 3rd straight road game just doesn't interest me. I think that's a path that will lead to alot more losses than wins in the long run....