Week 5

[Stifler's Mom]

ats 25-19 (+7.40 units)
dog ml 6-12 (-3.50 units)
overall 31-31 (+3.90 units)

1pm games:

Philadelphia Eagles -6

Eagles are real strong at home, and this is a must win for them. Tough spot for Washington off the rivalry win as a DD dog at Dallas. I have respect for what the Skins have accomplished, but this is pick the winner, and I like the spot for the Eagles a whole lot more. That's it.

New York Giants -7

Who are they trying to fool here? So Plaxico is out (suspended), and they move this line from -9, into pick the winner range at -7? I almost **** my pants when I saw that this game fell into pick the winner!! Like the Giants can't beat one of the worst teams in the NFL @ home by running and throwing to other guys than Burress.

Seattle stinks!! They got decimated in their one other trip to the east coast @ BUF, although they did manage to beat the Lambs at home. Maybe that win impressed someone? I guess they got some WR's back, but they still are weak everywhere else imo, and their running game that they so called established against STL is a farce, since STL is a complete joke, even more so on the road.

Well i'm not impressed, and no one is going to convince me that the NYG are going to lose this game SU @home, off a bye week and a scare vs the Bungles (a game in which imho they overlooked), just because Plaxico Burress is out. Plax is a fine receiver, but c'mon....

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-125)

Bet not too many expected to see me on these guys, but I am....and I even got a bad line in the process. Obviously not every public play loses, and backing HOU just because the public is pounding Indy is idiotic. I am just failing to find evidence that HOU is the better team here, which you'd pretty much have to think they are in order to take them to handle 1-2 Indy in a must win spot off a bye week, i'd think. If the Colts were 3-0, i might feel differently about this play....but at 1-2 and off a bye, there is no doubt the focus needs to be there, and this is a game in which i believe we will see the real Colts, weather that be a good team or a bad team, and I'm not ready to declare Indy dead and buried yet....

I'm stepping out here against this anti-public play because I don't believe Indy is as bad as they have looked. They have started slow on offense before, and I think a bye week is probably just what Manning needed to get their offense in full motion.

I know the Colts defense is a concern without Sanders, and HOU may move the ball and put up some points, but their defense seems to be so bad that I believe the Colts can match any and every score HOU can muster. I also believe INDY will be able to run the ball and use a short/medium passing game to control the game, and the clock, and give their defense time to rest and limit the time they have to defend.

All that is well and good, but in the end, picking the winner of this game all comes down to 3 things for me:

1. Turnovers. I don't believe Indy's offense is going to commit them today, and HOU has made their fair share of them. Teams that lead the turnover margin in the NFL win at an astronomical margin.

2. Getting the ball IN the end zone. I don't really see this as being a game where FG's are much good. If both teams can move the ball, which i think at the very least most people are conceding here, I think there's a much better chance INDY converts red zone possessions into TD's today than HOU.

3. If it comes down to their final possessions, I'd rather be on a proven winner in Manning and the Colts going for the winning score against a porous HOU defense he should be able to pass all over if necessary, than Schaub and the Texases who have yet to prove anything.

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (+105)

Rodgers in, Rodgers out, who cares. If he's this much of a game time decision, he's hurt. GB is going nowhere without him. How any team in the NFL can not have an acceptable backup at QB is beyond me. GB is an above avg team with Rodgers, not an elite one, and certainly not one who can win games with Matt Flynn at QB or whoever they plan on parading out there today when either Rodgers can't go, or when he gets hit once and has to leave the game.

The Packers defense also appears a bit banged up, and I feel like Atlanta should be able to run the ball effectively today.

Backing the Falcons on the road is far from easy, but it's the right choice here, imo. At least they've had a steady week to prepare.

Carolina Panthers - 9.5

When it comes down to it, KC is still a bad team, and the Panthers should be able to put up plenty of points to cover this number, as I don't see this game being a real nail biter come the 4th qtr....

Detroit Lions +3.5 (-105)

Backing the Lions is not quite as scary as backing the Bears on the road. Lions off a bye, and should come to play here against a Bears secondary they should be able to throw the ball on. Maybe this is the week the Lions start on their way to 11 wins or whatever Kitna has predicted every year since he's been there

Honestly, I didn't look too deep into this game, because I made up my mind on this one when one of the guys in my bowling league who is a complete know nothing about sports said "Did you see the line on the Bears and Lions this week? What idiot came up with that?"

That was enough for me. If you knew this guy, you'd understand....

Miami Dolphins +6.5 (+100)

I don't believe SD is nearly as good as advertised. A lucky -9 or so point cover for the public last week in a game SD probably should have lost SU, has them all with big healthy boners for L.T. and the Chargers again. But i can't help but ask myself what this team has done? Beat the Raiders and the Jets? Super....

Not.

This SD team has shown me nothing yet this season except that they have taken a step back, or more. In addition, this is a 2nd straight road game for them, once that involves cross country travel, and they also sport a defense that hasn't really been too impressive....and now must face a Miami team coming off a bye week, finally feeling good about themselves because they whacked NE and more importantly PLAYED WELL in the process, and with the confidence of believing Bill Parcells is leading the organization in the right direction.

I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say Miami is the better team, because they're not, but dare i say the incorrect team is favored today by how good/bad these 2 teams have been respectively for the last few years, and not by the players who are taking the field today....combined with situations surrounding each one as far as this week's game is concerned.

2 straight SU wins for Miami? I think so....

Baltimore Raisins +2.5

I suppose I'll never learn, but I'm going against Tennessee again. They have handled the challenges (or cupcakes....depends how you look at some of them) that have been put on their plate so far, but that was at home and this is their first road test (forget CIN).

TEN has shown me something, and they are definitely better than I thought, but this is just a spot I'd fade any team in, not to mention as a road fave against a Raisins team who looks to be for real again with Flacco finally giving them an acceptable QB, and will no doubt be looking to wash a bad taste from the Steelers loss on MNF out of their mouths.

Lets see if the completely immobile Kerry Collins and the TEN offense can move the ball on the first real defense they have faced, and if that TEN defense is really as good as advertised in what SHOULD BE a tough game for them to continually hold the BAL offense, since their own offense's time on the field should be limited more so than in previous games....

2 units each

Miami Dolphins ml +240
Baltimore Raisins ml +110
Detroit Lions ml +165
Atlanta Falcons ml +165

1 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

4pm games:

Arizona Cardinals pk -110

I hope this play loses, but I think odds are it doesn't. Not much to say about this one other than that this is just a real tough spot for the Bills, and I think Arizona is a good enough team to pick up the win here. This is just a really bad line. Arizona should be laying at least -3, if not more....

Tampon Bay Bucs +3.5 (+105)

I'm not sold on Denver, and I've been getting paid on TB just about every week. No real reason to change now. Forget the fact that they lost to KC....I won't base my opinion of anything strictly on 1 game, but how about the whole season? If there's one thing the Broncos HAVE proven, it's that their defense is bad. They have also proven that the really SHOULD be a 1-3 football team, including 0-2 @ home (so much for that mile high homefield advantage??), if not for a very makable distance missed fg by the 'Aints, and a horrific call by Ed Hoculi that I believe everyone knows about, lol.

SF 49ers +3.5 (-120)

The best (and only, i think) reason I've heard to play the Patriots in this game is because Bellicheat has had 2 weeks to prepare, a situation in which he has done very well in the past. So if i was playing QB for the Pats, and we had 2 weeks to prepare, we could win today? Huh?

Hey, NE used to be a great team. They used to have Tom Brady at QB. They used to be alot younger, and had alot of hidden talent. But the fact is Cassel stinks, and the Pats are a declining team, and they just don't seem to be pulling guys out of the woodwork this year to fill in when someone gets hurt. Hell, Cassel couldn't even do **** in the preseason against 3rd string defenses, nor has he done anything worth noting against any of the first strings he has faced this year.

Troy Brown knew when it was time to get out. The public apparently doesn't. Bellicheat is a coach, not a magician, and I don't think NE is a very good team at all right now. NE as a road fave against anyone right now seems a bit incorrect....let alone in a cross country travel situation and against a team with a beast of a running back that I have no idea how NE is going to stop today.

A bye week is a good thing, but not a cure all, and I don't think NE has a very good shot of winning SU today, let alone covering any points.

Denver/Tampon Bay under 47
Buffalo/Arizona under 45

2 units each

Tampon Bay ml +160
SF 49ers ml +155

1 unit each

I see the Atlanta line is up to -5.5 and counting now. The public must really be pouring in the money on GB with the announcement that Rodgers will attempt to play, lol.

Maybe i'm the dope here by taking Atlanta to win SU on the road, but do you guys (whoever you are....i haven't looked over the threads here since the beginning of the week) really think Rodgers is even close to 100%? Or even 50%? If the guy was feeling ok, he would have not been listed as a game time decision....and from what I understand he didn't practice much this week either.

Valiant effort, and lotsa courage, but probably not where I'd want to be putting my $$$ right about now.

I mean in contrast, i saw a bunch of people citing the "questionableness" of Big Ben tonight (which i'm not buying....Ben will be IN and ready to go if you ask me) as one of their reasons to take JAX tonight. I guess when you're playing the ****ty Falcons, it just doesn't matter who plays QB or how beat to hell he is, but when you play JAX it does

[birdsfan5]

GL Stif

[Biff_Tannen]

On the G-Men and Panthers with you this morning as well... I agree with you on the Cardinals, they are "due" to pick up a win here, but the Bills are flat out talented and can stay in any game. Best of luck Stifler!

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL @ the Indy win. HOU is a side I would have been on 99 out of 100 times....and for some reason I just felt differently this week.

Sure not saying I was correct....but it's nice to have one of those weird endings work out to my liking for a change

Now the Raisins on the other hand

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

LOL @ the Indy win. HOU is a side I would have been on 99 out of 100 times....and for some reason I just felt differently this week.

Sure not saying I was correct....but it's nice to have one of those weird endings work out to my liking for a change

Now the Raisins on the other hand

I lost both.

[gsad]

close to a monster day on the early games, good luck at 4

[Stifler's Mom]

Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Steelers ml +195

2 units ats/1 unit ml

I actually read this somewhere...

"Do Steeler fans read the injury reports or do they just start up their 85 Camaros, stroke their mustache, crank up Journey and throw their money away on the Steelers? Take the Jags!"

Jags haven't done **** this year, and after watching that ****fest between Indy and Houston today, I value the 2 wins they do have even less.

Guess I'll head out and buy an 85 Camaro, and try to grow one of them there mullets....hell, and an ultra cool peach fuzz mustache too, LMFAO

Oh yea, I won't jam to Journey though....but maybe I could dig up an old Whitesnake cassette

[hodown]

solid wknd stif!