***Week 7 Discussion Thread***

[hodown]

The more I think about the Pokes, the more I like the play. It's a pick-the-winner situation against one of the three worst teams in football. Johnson takes care of the ball and they still should be able to run. Not to mention every Poke fan is calling into sportstalk saying how they're season is done and I have no idea why.

[ONETIME!SPORTS]

Hi all, I'm new here, heres a few games I am interested in,

MIA -3, CAR-3, CHI-3

Miami was the better team in Houston, and I cant see the Raven offense being able to score enough points to win this game.

NO is a very streaky team, blowing your doors off one week, to stinking out the joint the next. very tricky spot going to Carolina, with them coming off a bad loss to TB

MINN is just downright awful, you struggle and almost lose to a team that has been vaporized by 70 points at the half the first 4 weeks, and has a QB who has 17 career attempts in the NFL under center. Chi should handle this team, like them coming home after a tough loss to ATL

[Billy The Kid]

Indy -1 Def agree with many with the Indy play. I am concerned that it is screaming for action on the Colts like Daws said. Green Bay was a dog last week to the Seahawks with Charlie Frye at QB. I know Rodgers was questionable throughout the week but there wasn't much doubt that he was going to play. Indy comming off a must win at home against a very good Baltimore D now playing a banged up Green Bay D. Will monitor the weather as the game approaches but IMO this is a line that you might want to jump on now if your planning on playing Indy as IMO its only going to go up.


Tampa Bay -10.5- public on the Hawks right now possibly after seeing all the big dogs cover easily last week. Don't see much of a let down for Tampa as it is a prime time game and Garcia is still fighting for a starting spot for the remainder of the season if he can continue to play well and win games. A banged up Green Bay D held Charlie Frye to 82 yds. passing and now Seneca Wallace is stepping in to face the number 2 D against the pass! Hawks on the road, I have no problem laying double digits.


Chicago Bears -3- Bears defensive strength is their run D witch plays right into the Vikings strength. Bears held Atl to 2.5 yds per carry last week. Vikes pass D is their weakness and dare I say Orton has actually looked pretty good. Like the Bears to rebound at home after a dissapointg loss last week to Atl.

[Underdog88]

Texans/Lions get the WTF line of the week. Houston opened at 10 & has dropped to 8.5. Houston off barely beating the Fins, while detroit is off blowing the upset vs Minny. Detroit trade away Roy Williams so there goes a chink of an already bad offense. Calvin likely to catch double teams now, & Orlovsky is now the man in charge. Detroit is bad, but that many points? I honestly expected a 5.5 or so. Bought it up to 17.5 in a teaser, but I'm hesitant to play it straight. Seems like the books want Lions money setting it that high.

[Underdog88]

This is normally a side I would never be on, but I'm considering the Saints to beat the Panthers. I'll give my thoughts later, off to the grind

[hodown]

i like Houston personally, dont think that Lions offense can keep up, and Houston will put points on the board. Detroit has gotten blown out every game save the last one, and Houston should have some positive momentum coming off their first win and they're still at home.

I think moneyline possibilities for small units are

Chiefs +320
Ravens +135
Vikes +162
Saints +142
Raiders +160

Don't think Cleveland can get the win here. Don't care for the Raiders but they have to cover sometime, and NYJ traveling all the way across country might make for a decent small ML. Something about the Bears just doesn't smell right. No way you should lose a game after taking the lead with 11 ticks left. I believe they are 1-3 this year with the game decided by 4 pts or less, and they've already choked off 3 fourth quarter leads. I know they're strength is rush defense, but this Minny line manhandled Chi's front four last year. Saints/Panthers is a toss to me, big divisional game that both want and need.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I really wanted to play Oakland at first glance, but they do not matchup well at all against the Jets. I was really looking for an angle to play Oakland, beacuse I do think the Jets are worse than their record, and with the cross-country travel.... but now it is either a no play, or I might even back the Jets...

The Jets weakness is pass defence...something I do not think Oakland can expose (Jets pass defence ranked 28th, but Oakland the 29th ranked passing team). Oakland is all about running the ball, but the Jets do a good job of stopping the run, ranked a surprising 3rd best in run defence! Plus Mcfadden is hobbled a bit. This means Oakland likely needs a consistant passing game this week to keep up with the points Farve will put up, to have any chance of winning, and I am not going to put my money on that situation!

On the other side, we all know Farve and the Jets are a passing team with virtually no run game...but that isn't necessarily a bad thing facing the 25th ranked pass defence of Oakland. The Saints lit up Oakland for 319 passing yards last week (Denver and Buffalo threw on Oakland easily as well), and I think Farve will be able to throw on them too.

[hodown]

good points on the Oak game. I think my ticket is going to look something like this:

Dal -7 (already have it)
KC +8
Buf +1
Hou -9
TB -10.5

and perhaps...

Wash -7
Minny +165
KC +305
NO +142

[Billy The Kid]

Leaning toward the Saints as well UD. At first glance thought I would def. be on the Panthers after a blowout loss to Tampa and NO having their way with the Raiders rather easily. After looking a little deeper IMO NO is the play. They rank 4th against the run and Carolina tends to struggle when they can't run the ball. The Panters have been terrible on 3rd downs and the Bucs may have exposed a Panther weakness last week. NO getting Colston and possibly Shockey back this week can't hurt an already dinamic offense and IMO Reggie Bush could cause lots of problems for the Panther D by comming out of the backfield catching short passes. Carolina won't be able to take away both Bush and the long ball.

[Daws1089]

jml not a big deal, but you know his name is Favre right? maybe its just a defence defense thing lol.

[Stifler's Mom]

I haven't even begun to look at these games (quite frankly i don't much like the card at first glance). Steelers as a 10 pt road chalk? Houston as a 10 pt chalk period? Give me one reason to play on either one of these teams this week, other than that they are playing the Bungles and Lions.

KC is in the same spot CLE was on Monday night. Oddly the line is similar as well. I like their shot at pulling the upset, and getting +9 seems like a real good deal.

BUF also started at +2 and has since moved to a pick em despite a pretty strong public backing on SD (neighborhood of 70%). Even through the years where the Bills weren't really very good, they were still a tough home team. SD beating what I still say is a below avg NE team, once again in a must win spot, has now gotten the public squarely in their corner again, but I look at what they've done this year overall, and it don't amount to much. BUF @ home off a bye and as a pick em due to pubic misconception that SD is better than they are looks like a good play. It seems sharp money likes BUF, and unless I find a reason not to, i do too.

The STL/DAL game is strange at a pick the winner now. I know Romo is out and pukeman is suspended (like the guy did shit anyway, they're probably better without him), but pick the winner? And still moving down? That REEKS of a set up....and quite frankly I can see where the oddsmakers are coming from. Dallas wasn't doing much WITH those guys in. They are clearly not as good as last year, and STL finally showed a bit of life Sunday @ Washington. I mean when was the last time STL beat ANYONE on the road outside of the other crap bag teams in their division? 2001? Tough to be convinced about playing STL too though, and I don't feel like being a sucker who falls for betting on (or going against) a team because of 1 game.

Honestly, i think alot of these lines are overreactions to last week's games. I think I'll read over the thread and see what some of you guys think....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

jml not a big deal, but you know his name is Favre right? maybe its just a defence defense thing lol.

Spelling police

Yeah...I'm aware it's Favre...he's been around...I just don't check spelling...I guess I'm typing phonetically? lol

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

I haven't even begun to look at these games (quite frankly i don't much like the card at first glance). Steelers as a 10 pt road chalk? Houston as a 10 pt chalk period? Give me one reason to play on either one of these teams this week, other than that they are playing the Bungles and Lions.

IMO, Steelers mainly because Pittsburgh played well coming off their bye week on the road in Jax, and seem healthier (a large reason of their early struggles)........ + they beat Cincy by 10+ both times last year, and generally own the Bengals (won 7 of last 9 games covering every one)........ + Cincy has Fitzpatrick at QB again, and he looked horrible against the weak Jets defence and I think he has even more trouble against the much, much better Pitt defence (ranked 2nd in most categories)....... + Pitt also gets Willie Parker back which should help out the offence facing a Cincy team that cannot stop the run this year worth a shit.

10 actually seems about right. If you give the Bengals with Fitzpatrick a 10 point spread last week (where they lost ATS easily to the very average Jets), then the Steelers line HAS to be close to that with Fitz in once again (it's actually down to 9, so it's now lower than the Jets line). No way I'd play Cincy at least, it's gotta be Pitt or no play.


I like the Bills too. That home team should be -3.5.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Love to hear the thoughts on this Saints angle. That game has me stumped, and is a no-play... seems like a good home team facing a questionable road team from afar...

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

KC is in the same spot CLE was on Monday night. Oddly the line is similar as well. I like their shot at pulling the upset, and getting +9 seems like a real good deal.

Already grabbed KC @9. Titans are a great defensive team, but i still think -9 on the road is an inflated line. Though off a bye, it's still their second straight road game. KC were shutout for the first time in 6 years last game, & were in a horrible letdown spot after their home upset win over the Broncos. LJ was shut down, & the Panthers ran at will. Despite that game, KC is averaging 4.6 ypc. The Titans are averaging a low 3.6 ypc, but are second in the league with 33.2 attempts per game. I just don't see how you lay 9 with a team that can't throw the ball & will have trouble scoring at all if you stop the run, on the road no less! The Titans have benefitted from turnovers in every game- 4 in Minny, 3 in Jax & Hous, & 2 in Cincy & Balty. IMO That's what it comes down to @KC. The Ravens lead most of the game & had 132 rushing yards. Houston was in the redzone like 20 times vs Tenn & had 146 yards allowed. I'm banking on KC getting a run game going...