***Week 8 NFL Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Figured I might as well get this started, even if I have no desire to look into the NFL right now. 3 plays jumped out at me at first glance....




SD/NO o46.5- two teams both in must win situations. Both teams are on a bye following this game, the Saints are currently in the basement. Not so good defenses & solid passing attacks on both sides of the ball. I have a hard time not seeing this turn into a shootout. Bush is out, but NO has enough weapons to keep scoring. Plus I think Deuce getting more carries could be a good thing. Both teams off pretty poor offensive showings, especially the Saints, who could only muster 7 points (SD just 14 vs Buffalo). IMO going into the season this would be a 49-50 point total easy, but because of SD's recent lower totals, the line has dropped. Both are horrible away from home- the Saints are 0-3 on the road, and play the next 3 of 4 on the road after the bye. As of right now I don't have a lean on the side, thinking the best option wouyld be to root for points.... 28-24 or so.


Pitt- home team laying 2.5. Giants really haven't looked that good the past 2 weeks, this could be the game where the Eli bashing starts. Would like to have Parker in the lineup, seems as though he'll play....


Colts/Titans o42- I think I'm done trying to fade the Titans. Maybe. Not trying to take anything away from what the Titans have done so far this season, but look at their schedule. The combined record of the teams they have faced? 12-26. I'll give you the Ravens & Jags @.500 as good teams, but the fact remains that they have yet to face a team with a winning record or a really good offense. One thing is for sure- they can run the hell out of the ball & the Colts can't stop the run. IMO the season is on the line for the Colts, & Peyton is coming off his worst performance of the year. I will not fade him. Last season's meeting in Ten the Colts edged the Titans 22-20. Peyton threw for 312 & the Titans ran for 141. Nothing to get out of the second meeting, as it was the last game of the season & Peyton played a little more than 1 quarter. The Titans run game is better than ever, & I think the only way the Colts even stand a chance is to score points. The best offense the Titans have faced was probably Houston, who had plenty of scoring opportunities but kept turning the ball over in the redzone. Looks to be the start of the toughest stretch for Tenn, as they are home vs Indy, GB, then @Chi, @Jax. After that the schedule looks fairly easy. Already played this big as I see more than a couple trips into the endzone for both teams.....

[FlyersFan]

Cincinnati +10 is rediculous and i will be on them for sure. HOU has no business being a 10 point favorite in that game. The game was 17-10 with CIN driving on Sunday in the 4th quarter and then they melted down. They are still playing hard, albeit not smart as usual. HOU struggled with an equally bad DET team and failed to blow them out on Sunday last week. The Bengals are a better team than Detroit and will hang within a rediculous number here.

SDG/NO Over46 1/2...........agree Udoggydog on that one. Only thing i would be worried about would be weather and field conditions. Some of those fields they play on are terrible over there and im sure it will be raining as it does as often there as it snows in buffalo....lol.

STL/NE Under43 1/2.................may be bad weather and i like the under here for a couple of reasons. Cassell is really not very good. He was throwing late the whole game vs. Denver, it's just that Denver quit in the 2nd quarter so you really got a false sense of how he was playing. They are down to the 3rd or 4th RB depending on the status of Morris. STL on the other hand has played well defensively the past couple of weeks and torched a bad Dallas secondary in the air and on the ground last week which i don't think they will do this week outside. I think this is a game where 20 to 23 points gets the W and has me liking the Under. I will say 23-13 pats.

Teaser of the Week is CIN +17 and SDG/NO Over 39 1/2

[Underdog88]

I agree with the Bengals, though I promised myself I was done backing terrible teams. I agree with all of you reasoning actually. Waiting to check on weather conditions before locking in the Saints over, but IMO those conditions may actuall favor the wrs over cbs.....

[Daws1089]

im not looking to back either team, but nyj -13 is absurd. KC is bad, but nyj is just as bad imo. After losing to a bad oakland team they come home as 13 pt favs? wow.


like baltimore a lot, but hate that the line has dropped from -7 to -6.5. Sharps really on oak? I'm confused there.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'll try and share my thoughts again this week...

With SD losing in Buffalo last week, West Coast teams playing a 1:00 start in the Eastern Time Zone are now 1-9 ATS. The Raiders and Cards are in that spot this week.

I'll jump back on that train after losing with the Bolts this week.

The Ravens seem to do well against teams that rely on running the ball (beat Miami easily last week...and lost very close games to top teams Titans/Steelers). When they played a passing team like Indy, they were smoked. Oakland is a running team, so the Ravens defence should matchup well. With the West/East thing and Oakland coming off a win, that's enough for me to back the home team.

Zona fits into that category too...and they have never played well in that situation. They have been money at home, but a fade on the road. Pretty tough going into a stadium where the Panthers have probably been the best out of anyone in the league at home this year. Also...Zona is a gunslinging team exclusively, and Carolina has the 2nd best pass defence in the league...including keeping the big bad Brees show in check last week. With the West/East thing...and what seems like a good matchup for Car...I like the Cats in this spot.

I also like the Steelers in that marquee matchup as I'm not sold on NYG as a road team...they have a win over STL (where the game was close through 3 quarters), and a blowout loss in Cle. Against a good home team like Pitt in essentially a pickem line, there's only one play there IMO.

I'm also looking at laying points with Philly as I think this is another time Atlanta lays an egg on the road. They've been good at home, but I think Philly's defence frustrates Ryan much like they did to OSullivan, and with Philly getting a couple offensive weapons back, I think they roll. McNabb and his returning weapons throw all over that suspect Falcons pass defence at home.

I'll probably put in my weekly fade of Seattle as well...only catching 4 on the road. Also very interested to see what the TB/Dallas line will be...

I agree that the Cincy and KC lines are whack...but these teams are bad...what are the books supposed to do? Many said the lines for these two were whack last week as well...but they were both blown out. And now they're on the road. I certainly won't lay points with NYJ or HOU, but I'm not backing the Bungles or Chiefs on the road just because they're getting DD again. IMO, there's just as good of a chance they lose by 2 TDs as there is that they cover.

Just my thoughts...they could be wrong

[Larry]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

I'll try and share my thoughts again this week...

With SD losing in Buffalo last week, West Coast teams playing a 1:00 start in the Eastern Time Zone are now 1-9 ATS. The Raiders and Cards are in that spot this week.

I'll jump back on that train after losing with the Bolts this week.

The Ravens seem to do well against teams that rely on running the ball (beat Miami easily last week...and lost close ones to the Titans and Steelers who like to run the ball). When they played a passing team like Indy, they were smoked. Oakland is a running team, so the Ravens defence should matchup well. With the West/East thing and Oakland coming off a win, that's enough for me to back the home team.

Zona fits into that category too...and they have never played well in that situation. They have been money at home, but a fade on the road. Pretty tough going into a stadium where the Panthers have probably been the best out of anyone in the league at home this year. Also...Zona is a gunslinging team exclusively, and Carolina has the 2nd best pass defence in the league...including keeping the big bad Brees show in check last week. With the West/East thing...and what seems like a good matchup for Car...I like the Cats in this spot.

My thoughts exactly. Carolina and Baltimore were the first 2 games to jump out at me this week

[Daws1089]

I think Miami gets a win at home this week. This is always a tight game, but buffalo is a different team on the road imo. Miami somehow finds a way to get this one.

[tampayay]

I really like Cincy, as FF stated Hou has no business laying 10. That 2nd half last week, man.

I also like saints.chargers over too.

Pats, Rams under is also looking great, after the showing this past week the line is a little inflated. Rams i think come back down to earth.

Colts ML also looking juicy, a must win game, and a chance to salvage themselves on MNF.

[hodown]

No choice but to play against the two teams that are heading east in the early games. That would be:

Oakland @ Baltimore -7
Arizona @ Carolina -4.5

I hesitate a little in the Carolina game b/c Zona is coming off a bye, and perhaps Car blew their wads last week in a big divisional game. Having said that I'm making the play due to the 1-9 record for west coast teams traveling east, and I think Carolina's d can check Az's o if it can check NO's o.

Buffalo @ Miami +1.5
Miami is worth a shot as well. You would think that a 5-1 team would be laying more than 1.5 to a team that's 2-4 but not the case. Buf also coming off a big win against SD at home, but I think Buf's defense can be run on, and Miami can run the ball. Its really the only anti-public game I can play that doesn't involve me betting on a real bad team.

Not to mention I like SD -3 in the other thread alot

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by hodown

No choice but to play against the two teams that are heading east in the early games. That would be:

Oakland @ Baltimore -7
Arizona @ Carolina -4.5

Having said that I'm making the play due to the 1-9 record for west coast teams traveling east

Maybe I'm overthinking things, but I would be wary of the west coast---->east coast travel fade. Things always have a way of evening themselves out. I'm sure the oddmakers are aware of this stat, & IMO they have responded by putting out some inflated lines. Baltimore-7? I had this set at 4.5. How do the Ravens go from a 3 point dog @Miami to a 7 pt home fave? Too big of a swing imo- teams that win su as a dog & are favored the next week don't have the best % of covering the spread (not sure of the #). I normally would be all about fading Zona on the road here, but I this could be a letdown spot for the Panthers....

[hodown]

I think the Baltimore line is high as well upon first glance, but if oddsmakers are going by the book and giving the 3 points for HF, then Balt is -4 on a neutral site and -1 @ Oak, which I think is about right. It's still a pick-the-winner scenario, and I can't envision Oak going into Balt and winning and that's what it comes down to.

To me the Car game is alot more appealing at -4 then it is laying the hook. I think the letdown spot is a good point, and Ariz coming off a bye is big too. However, Ariz is somewhat like Sea in that they notoriously suck on the east coast, and have shown nothing this year to state otherwise. Car's defense should be the best unit on the field, and I think a 7 point win for Car is in the cards. I think the Car line is right on.

And I'm seeing the Jets giving 13.5. That is a f*king joke, but i'm done breaking my rule of betting on brutal teams.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Arizona has lost 14 consecutive away games against a team with an above-.500 record.

Arizona has given up 80 points in the two Eastern games this year.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Arizona has lost 14 consecutive away games against a team with an above-.500 record.

Arizona has given up 80 points in the two Eastern games this year.

I'll give you the first stat, but the second one? Cmon, 56 of them were in 1 game- they Cards were in about as bad of a spot as they possibly could be in! 2nd straight road game facing a team who had just gotten blown out. 7 turnovers in the game, 20 pts off turnovers for the Jets in the 1sth! Zona put up 35 to their credit. Giving up 24 to the Skins is a reasonable score. I'm not saying that Zona is the play, just that this west to east coast trend will correct itself.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

SDG/NO Over46 1/2

Line has dropped to 45. Waiting to confirm weather. I feel like this line looks too easy, but I can't pass it up. Would be especially happy if Cromartie didn't play, he hasn't practiced yet this week. I have a feeling this one gets stupid high scoring.

Another totals that have me interested


Ravens/Raiders o36- The Ravens only average 3.7 ypc but 134 per game thanks to a league high 36 attempts per game. Bad news for the Raiders, who allow 4.6 ypg, & gave up 242 on the ground to the Jets last week. Oakland's right DT Warren hasn't practiced all week either. I think Baltimore will be able to establish the run, then play off it for an effective pass game vs the #22 ranked pass D. Good defense does not always equate to low scoring. Oakland has the #5 rushing attack (4.5ypc 143 per game) going up against the best team vs the run. Landry & Rolle are both out, & McAlister has a banged up knee, so I think that (provided the Raiders can run effectively) the Raiders may have success throwing screens & short passes. Oakland did have a clunker offensively vs the Saints, but put up 23 @KC & @Buffalo. I think this one ends up in the 40's.

SF/Seattle o41- Last meeting totaled 63 pts, & this total comes out at 41? Gore should have a field day facing this Seattle D, & OSullivan already torched them once. Seattle has the #29 pass D, & has allowed 10 tds & just 1 int passing. On the other side you have Morris/Jones facing a defense that has allowed 9 rushing tds. Seattle is averaging 4.9 ypc, & after facing some tough defenses I think they will be able to get into the endzone on SF. Revenge game & I lean Seattle, but I don't think I can play on them, IMO the over may be the best option....

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Line has dropped to 45. Waiting to confirm weather. I feel like this line looks too easy, but I can't pass it up. Would be especially happy if Cromartie didn't play, he hasn't practiced yet this week. I have a feeling this one gets stupid high scoring.

Another totals that have me interested


Ravens/Raiders o36- The Ravens only average 3.7 ypc but 134 per game thanks to a league high 36 attempts per game. Bad news for the Raiders, who allow 4.6 ypg, & gave up 242 on the ground to the Jets last week. Oakland's right DT Warren hasn't practiced all week either. I think Baltimore will be able to establish the run, then play off it for an effective pass game vs the #22 ranked pass D. Good defense does not always equate to low scoring. Oakland has the #5 rushing attack (4.5ypc 143 per game) going up against the best team vs the run. Landry & Rolle are both out, & McAlister has a banged up knee, so I think that (provided the Raiders can run effectively) the Raiders may have success throwing screens & short passes. Oakland did have a clunker offensively vs the Saints, but put up 23 @KC & @Buffalo. I think this one ends up in the 40's.

SF/Seattle o41- Last meeting totaled 63 pts, & this total comes out at 41? Gore should have a field day facing this Seattle D, & OSullivan already torched them once. Seattle has the #29 pass D, & has allowed 10 tds & just 1 int passing. On the other side you have Morris/Jones facing a defense that has allowed 9 rushing tds. Seattle is averaging 4.9 ypc, & after facing some tough defenses I think they will be able to get into the endzone on SF. Revenge game & I lean Seattle, but I don't think I can play on them, IMO the over may be the best option....

chalkdog- no interest in that NE Under?

and dan says he stopped by with wings and rang your doorbell like 14 times and you wouldn't answer......