Week 8 NFL

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 50-37 (+19.10 units)
dog ml's 15-20 (+5.00 units)
overall 65-57 (+24.10 units)

DET +8
NE -8
PHI -9
ARI +5.5
NO +3 (+100)
NO/SD u46.5
BAL -9 (+100)

JAX -7 (-115)
PIT -3 (+100)
SEA +5.5 (+100)

2 units each

ARI ml +210
DET ml +260
NO ml +135
SEA ml +200

1 unit each

Yes, that is Detroit moneyline LMFAO

In all seriousness though, i want to say a few things about 2 of the games i DID NOT play.....

These are the kind of games that are dragging my ats record (excluding the dog ml's) under 60% (which is my goal), as I seem to lose every single game that I have conflicted thoughts about for some reason.....even if i feel maybe 75% sure that one of the sides is the right one and i go ahead and make the play. That's why I'm trimming these 2 games completely off today's card.

BUF/MIA - Seems the public is all over BUF and there is sharper money on MIA....although I must say MIA seems like a sexy home dog pick amongst many here from what I see in reading over some threads this morning.

Normally just judging by the public % and line movement, I would be all over MIA in this spot, but I feel BUF is the far better team. I think MIA won a few games convincingly using gimmick formations, but still have a long way to go to be up to par with where BUF has gotten themselves, imho, and these are the games where champions win on the road.

It's one of those damned if you do, and damned if you don't situations. If i go against my thoughts that BUF is far better and take MIA due to the public %/line move/oddsmaker opinion and then BUF wins, I'm an ass for going against my thoughts.

Likewise, if i take BUF and go with my thoughts and ignore all the signs I normally use to handicap that point to MIA, and MIA wins, then i'm kicking myself in the ass for doing that too.

Gun to my head, i would take BUF....but like I said, not the world's best spot to play them. I DO NOT like MIA, however, so I did what is the more intelligent thing for me, and passed.

DAL/TB - How is this line not SCREAMING for DAL money? These guys were penciled in for the super bowl before they even played a game!! Now they are laying -1 point at home?

Sadly enough, the public isn't falling for it, as I see a slightly higher % on TB. I don't trust TB as much on the road as I do at home, and i honestly think this could come down to weather DAL shows up or not on the offensive side of the ball.

If they don't, it's TB in a romp....and they certainly have the personnel capable of not showing up.

Even if DAL does show up, I'm not convinced they can stop TB...or anyone else. That D SUCKS.

With that being said, gun to my head, I'd be on TB. But like BUF/MIA, my thoughts are conflicted, and I think it was better for me to pass on this one too.

The reason i even posted these thoughts is because I think there are a few games like this where all of us are on the fence with every week (not necessarily the same games for everyone)....and by bringing it up, i thought maybe we could get some discussion going about it and all avoid some potential losers for ourselves by strengthening our discipline. I know discipline is not a problem for some, but for many it is the biggest key area where we can improve our handicapping.

[Stifler's Mom]

adding one more:

BAL/OAK o34.5

2 units

I know I'll be kicking myself in the ass for adding this one, as I'm not a big totals player, but I agree with U-dog's assessment of this game in the discussion thread 100%, and asking for a combined 35 pts really isn't asking much, especially when Raider penalties and mistakes could very well set BAL up with some short fields.....

[BoilerBacker]

GL Stif.

For what it is worth....

Going against fishy lines works much better for me than using my head.

I took Miami and Tampa. I really do not think Buffalo is as good as their record. I think Miami has been playing better since the beginning of the season.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, the Bills didnt play too well today and Miami made the plays in the 2H to get it done, mostly on defense.

I can't help but wonder when anyone is going to give the Bills any respect for being a good team though

I mean they're solid in all 3 phases of the game, and have shown the ability to both close out games when leading, and come back and win them when trailing late. Contrary to what they did today, they don't take alot of penalties, nor do they commit alot of turnovers. Maybe they don't lead the league in guys with impressive sack dances or wild TD celebrations, but they do play solid football, and if they don't suffer from too many injuries, are going to be there at the end of the year in contention, and i guarantee they will be a team no one wants to play come playoff time.

Not the best showing for them today however, but ****, you can't win every game....and MIA has to be given the credit for making plays today...but BUF is still a very good football team. Without a doubt a top 10 team in the NFL, weather anyone wants to believe that or not is up to them, but I think you'd be real hard pressed to find 10 teams in the NFL that are better.

I'll give ya TEN as better than BUF since they're undefeated
Maybe PIT....they're experienced and solid
TB, WASH & CAR gave been good in the NFC, but i don't see how any better than BUF
BAL & NYG are also solid, but like BUF have both had some major clunkers.

That's about it.

3-5 SD who BUF already beat doesn't count. I don't care how many "playmakers" they have. They're 3-5 and giving well over 30 ppg. That's awful.

Until INDY can stop the run and run the rock themselves, forget it.

Oh well, that's my no respect for BUF rant for the day, lol....but seriously, I think BUF is going to keep improving every week and learning from their mistakes, and be a solid contender and make some real noise come playoff time, if they can stay healthy of course.

[Stifler's Mom]

CLE +6.5 2H

2 units

Oddsmakers taking a stand on CLE here, imho....thought I'd get AT LEAST +7 a SIA.....

[Daws1089]

nice day stiff. I didn't add it all up but it looks like you ended on the + side. I completely agree with your point about discipline. Its so easy to lose track of things with so many games at our fingertips. I been working on my discipline for awhile now and I think it is the most important thing.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Yea, the Bills didnt play too well today and Miami made the plays in the 2H to get it done, mostly on defense.

I can't help but wonder when anyone is going to give the Bills any respect for being a good team though

I mean they're solid in all 3 phases of the game, and have shown the ability to both close out games when leading, and come back and win them when trailing late. Contrary to what they did today, they don't take alot of penalties, nor do they commit alot of turnovers. Maybe they don't lead the league in guys with impressive sack dances or wild TD celebrations, but they do play solid football, and if they don't suffer from too many injuries, are going to be there at the end of the year in contention, and i guarantee they will be a team no one wants to play come playoff time.

Not the best showing for them today however, but ****, you can't win every game....and MIA has to be given the credit for making plays today...but BUF is still a very good football team. Without a doubt a top 10 team in the NFL, weather anyone wants to believe that or not is up to them, but I think you'd be real hard pressed to find 10 teams in the NFL that are better.

I'll give ya TEN as better than BUF since they're undefeated
Maybe PIT....they're experienced and solid
TB, WASH & CAR gave been good in the NFC, but i don't see how any better than BUF
BAL & NYG are also solid, but like BUF have both had some major clunkers.

That's about it.

3-5 SD who BUF already beat doesn't count. I don't care how many "playmakers" they have. They're 3-5 and giving well over 30 ppg. That's awful.

Until INDY can stop the run and run the rock themselves, forget it.

Oh well, that's my no respect for BUF rant for the day, lol....but seriously, I think BUF is going to keep improving every week and learning from their mistakes, and be a solid contender and make some real noise come playoff time, if they can stay healthy of course.

I wasn't really trying to bust on Buffalo, just saying I don't think they are a 'typical' one loss team quality wise. The teams they have beaten this year are quite bad in general... Sea, Oak and St L and they were fortunate to survive Oak. SD has NO defense and Jax is a mystery. I think CLE stinks and they just went to JAX and beat them soundly.

The fact that Miami off a horrible season is quite competitive says something to me. Denver is the worst division leader I can remember in quite some time.

JMO. I think Buff is going to contend for the AFC championship, but I think they are quite beatable on the road vs. mediocre teams.

I root for Purdue and Cleveland teams so I know what it feels to not get much respect... lol.