~~ BIFF'S NDFL - WEEK 8 ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Here's the first 2 this morning...


2% TOTAL ($650) - RAMS @ PATRIOTS - UNDER 43 (-120)

Rams will be back under 20 points like they should be, and Cassel should continue to take hits. 4 named 4th stringers in the backfield. Light cross field wind. Yeah, I'd take any number in the 40s.


2% SPREAD ($650) - BUCCANEERS +2 (-110)

Terence Newman, Pacman Jones, and Roy Williams are all out in this game, and Garcia is completing close to 70% on the year. Hilliard and Galloway both practiced Friday giving him a bunch of solid options along with Bryant and Clayton. He gets Jerramy Stevens involved as well.

Felix Jones being out is a much bigger hit than Dunn being out in this game. Felix is a spark plug for that offense. Johnson could be the dagger this week playing against his old team. Cowboys have lost straight up as favorites on the road in back to back weeks, scoring their lowest point total of the year last week with Johnson. He's the anti-Romo, and this offense is clearly worse off without it. O-Line has been gettin beat by speedier defensive fronts. TB fits that bill and could have success if Johnson is in the shotgun all day. Bucs only being 10-24 on the road since 2004. Well only thing I care about is how the QB is on the road. Garcia is 4-7 on the road with TB since last year. This year he's lost to the Saints by 4 and the Broncos by 3. Kept his team in the game against good home teams. He likes the turf with his scramble improv passing technique.

I've heard Dallas fits a lot of bounce back systems, but fact is, for a team to bounce back they need to be healthy. The opposite is true for Dallas. Bucs haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all year so if Johnson struggles, Marion should as well. I see an advantage for the Bucs in every aspect this week including coaching.


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If one of the moderators wants to fix my title I'd appreciate it. A little quick on the trigger this morning I guess.

[Biff_Tannen]

Tough split to start the day. Lines are pretty tough this week. Best crappy game I've seen in awhile. Just this one next up... may have a 2nd half bet in these afternoon games.


2% SPREAD ($650) - 49ERS -5 (-120)

[Biff_Tannen]

Last play for NFL today... working on my WS pick now.


1% 2nd HALF SPREAD ($375) - STEELERS -2 (-105)

[Biff_Tannen]

Well it really was the NDFL today for me... the NO DICE Football League.

Hope to rebound next week and get back to having winning weekends. I like the MNF game, but going to look closer at it to see if I want to make a play. Good luck in the WS tonight everyone!

[Biff_Tannen]

Here's my MNF play.


2% SPREAD ($650) - COLTS +4 (-110)


Playing the Colts tonight who have some very strong trends in their favor. I listed a few of them below. While I don't think the Colts are being underrated at all, I think the Titans have been overrated quite a bit. I see the game as being much closer to a pick'em. The Colts have Saturday back in the middle of that O-line calling the blocking audibles along side Peyton. Kerry Collins isn't a magician, he's been the benefactor of an opportunistic rushing attack and staunch defensive play. Not to mention he hasn't played a team with a winning record yet. Colts could surprisingly get the running game going this week I think, even w/o Addai. We'll see... good luck tonight!


>Colts are 8-0 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning pct. of 75+% over the last 3 seasons.
>Colts are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons.
>Colts are 6-0 ATS vs. teams rushing averaging >=4.5 yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.
>Dungy is 11-2 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.
>Dungy is 14-1 SU and ATS in his NFL head coaching career in games off a SU favorite loss when his team's win-loss percentage is .500 or less, including 10-0 as a dog or favorite of less than 4 points.

[Q-Unit]

great work so far this season man, keep it up

bounce back tonight

[Underdog88]

Nice to see you on the Colts! GL to us

[tampayay]

Yeee Haaa

[Biff_Tannen]

I'm coming off my first sub .500 week with a 1-4 mark in week 8, only my 2nd "losing" week this year. Hope to rebound in week 9. Good luck to everyone the rest of the season!

Just did my mid-season recap, so I figured I'd share a snapshot.


Home Underdogs ATS (2-3)
Home Favorites ATS (10-2)

Away Underdogs ATS (5-2)
Away Favorites ATS (2-3)

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Underdogs ≤ 3 pts. (3-2)
Favorites ≤ 3 pts. (7-3)

Underdogs ≤ 6.5 pts. (5-4)
Favorites ≤ 6.5 pts. (11-4)

Underdogs ≥ 7 pts. (2-1)
Favorites ≥ 7 pts. (1-1)

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OVER ≤ 41.5 Pts. (0-0)
UNDER ≤ 41.5 Pts. (2-1)

OVER ≥ 42 Pts. (0-0)
UNDER ≥ 42 Pts. (1-0)

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1st Half Spread (2-0)
1st Half Totals (0-0)

2nd Half Spread (0-2)
2nd Half Totals (2-0)

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Teasers (1-1)
Parlays (1-0)

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MNF (2-4)

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Top 2 Teams (ML & ATS)

PANTHERS (4-0)
PATRIOTS (2-0)

Only two with multiple wins and 0 losses.

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Bottom 2 Teams (ML & ATS)

LIONS (0-1)
BEARS (0-1)

Only two with 0 wins. I have not lost with the same team twice this year.

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