***Week 9 NFL Discussion***

[FlyersFan]

stepping on chalkdog's toes here and starting this thread early. been a great too this year, IMO. going to be gone later in the week so wanted to start this while im still around....

DEN -3...............really like this play. DEN coming off of a bye and MIA off of a couple big wins.

BUF -5 1/2.............maybe im getting suckered in here but i agree with stiffy that the Jets suck ass. And i honestly still don't think BUF is getting the R-E-S-P-E-C-T they deserve this season. Favreau is a turnover machine and i would expect BUF to be hungry to get back in the win column after last weekend's loss.

KC +9 1/2 (would buy up to 10)......i think that KC hangs in here. TAM is 1-3 on the road and playing B2B road games. They have only scored 69 points including just 16 vs. an awful Denver defense......in those 4 games for an average of 17/game. Gotta score more than that to cover a 10 point line.

CLE -1..........just have that feeling.

CLE/BAL Over37...............Both of these offenses have been getting better as the season goes on. Wouldn't surprise me to see BAL defense jump in on the scoring act here. Big game for CLE and i would expect a game effort. Just don't see a low scoring game here.

SEA/PHI Under44.................think this number is about 4 points too high. Been doing pretty well each week isolating one of these totals that is off by a little. SEA defense has stepped up recently and the offense i don't think will do much vs. a good PHI defense. I think last week's offensive fireworks were due to a SF team that is deplorable right now.

Bears Team Over...............put 34 up on DET the first time and has scored 29, 17, 24, 24, 34, 20 and 48 this year. Number should be about 28 1/2 or so.


Best total to tease this week IMO.....JAX/CIN Over33

[Underdog88]

Love the Bills over the Jets. Off a divisional loss away, NY will be walking into a hornets nest. Favre has thrown 7 ints in his past 3 games played, & the jets have lost 2 of 3 on the road. Last week they were lucky to squeek a win out vs a lowly KC team, Thigpen threw for 275+ & 2 tds! Nice bounceback spot for Trent. Bills team total over probably a good play as well

[Daws1089]

I already played the bills. Favre just blows and he won't get away with all of those turnovers against a good team like buffalo. Jets on the road in a pick the winner situation is almost automatic for me to fade.


The problem I have with Denver is their defense. They can certainly score, but I don't have any confidence in them to be able to stop anyone they play. Their defense is that bad so I can't play them.


Bengals +7.5...i know i know, but what exactly has jax done to deserve this line? Lose at home as 6 pt fav or so and now on the road and become an even bigger fav? I think the over could be a good play here too.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree with Buffalo...they are going to put a whipping on NYJ this Sunday in a great spot...all I was hoping is that line would be under a TD. 5 is great.

I'm also looking at playing Philly again...this time in Seattle. The Seahawks are still a bad bad football team, and a blowout win over the embarrasing Niners lets us lay less than a TD. SF played an atrocious football game, and handed Seattle the win with turnovers and bad QB play. Against a good team like Philly, they'll lose by 20+. I agree with FF that I don't see how Seattle scores much at all on this Philly defence, especially after blowing their wad last week.

Looking at playing Arizona on the road this week, but not on the East coast. They lost in Carolina, but showed well in a tough stadium and West/East spot. At least I got a push with CAR with a good number. I think their Warner and their offense puts up some big numbers on STL and gets an easy win. The Rams recent OK play gives us a really low line, IMO. I also like that Hightower will get first team minutes this week as well. That guy is more explosive than James. Add in their passing game with Bolden healthier another week with the trio of Fitz and Breaston...and look out...I think they put up 40 in the dome.

As for the Broncos...I'm fading them this week against the Dolphins. I guess people are buying this Denver team, as everyone seems to like them this week (72%?), but I have them as one of the worst teams in the league, over-rated, with a horrible defence. I guess it's because of big names Cutler and Marshall that people would lay 4 with that defence, but this team has lost 3 of 4 including convincing losses to hapless KC, under-performing Jax, and a blowout loss to the Matt Cassels. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS and have not covered once in 4 games at home. Going back to last year, Denver cannot stop the run (30th), and should surely have trouble against the duo of Brown/Williams. Denver also lost their best cover guy for this week, Champ Bailey to their already weak secondary (28th). Say what you will about noodle-arm, but he's played well, with a QB rating over 100 and a surprisngly 6th ranked passing game. Him and the RB duo will move the ball on this ****ty Denver defence all freaking day. If the Miami defence plays anyway half decent like they did against Buffalo, they win outright IMO. Miami's defence is 12th in points against, Denver 29th.

It's not the best spot in the world for Miami, granted, on the road after a big win over Buffalo (they're coming off only one big win FF), but I still think they aren't getting much respect from the public here, and are the better team. They have some confidence after that divisional win, and haven't played horrible on the road (win over the Cassels and a 1 point loss in Houston). Both teams will likely score points, but I am essentially fading the Bronco defence laying points. Hopefully Cutler's hand is less than 100%! lol...

I also might finally jump on the Bungals bandwagon this week, as I think thats a close game at home. How can the public be all over a Jax team that has done absolutely nothing this year, and like a few teams this year, is living off past results. They are no good, and lost another OG last week. Big receiver Matt Jones might be out this week on a suspension as well. I have stayed away from backing teams like the Lions and Bengals so far, and I hate to do it...but Jax laying 8 on the road against anybody is asinine. I might not be able to pull the Cinci leaver when the time comes, but I think finally there is some value in their side. lol.

Those are my early looks anyway....looking forward to others thoughts as always...

What does everyone make of the Cowboys getting so many points in NYG? If Brooks Bollinger starts I might have to grab the 9.5...

[hodown]

Cle -1.5 and Buf -5.5 are the best plays of the week imo. Was liking Denver but that's a little more of a risk there. The AFC West is junk right now. Also thinking about a 6 point teaser with Dallas -2.5 and a team to be named later. But who is the question??? And the four teams that are getting good lines every wk but are impossible to bet on are KC, Sea, Det, and Cinci.

[Bugly77]

I like the Vikings -3 or 4 at home vs the Texans, Bills -5 1/2 vs Jets.
Maybe the Titans -5 1/2.
Not liking many spreads this week, altho Pats + 5 1/2 @ Indy is intriguing.

I'll prob stick with the moneylines this week: Titans, Bears, Giants, Bucs.

Nothing ballsy, I know, it's that kind of week.

[Furashu]

is anyone looking at the GB @ TENN game?
its at -5 or -5.5

i know GB is coming off a bye and big win vs INDY, but if u look at the teams they lost to DAL, TB, ATL, those three are very good at rushing ( well dallas used to be when romo was qb). Tenn is great at rushing the ball and kerry collins showed he can help them come back! The teams they beat MIN, DET, SEA, IND all suck at running the ball ( outside of MINNY, tavaris lost them the game). If its up to rodgers to win the game on the road like it was in TB, i like the titans by 2 fgs at least. The TENN O-line and D-Line have been playing great they faced 3 pretty good pass rushing teams JAX, BAL, MIN (well JAX at the time) and INDY looked good. GB's d-line is soft and allows about 140ish yds per game to rushers. I think TENN still has a chip on their shoulder that everyone still thinks theyre a fluke at 7-0. GB's rushing attack has been dismal so far and they wont get anybetter facing the TEN defense. Rodgers will be forced to win the game for them and he hasnt faced a top 10 defense yet (well dallas at the time).

[Stifler's Mom]

Not the best spot for ten this week though, after finally getting "over the hump" and all but burying the colts as a contender in the division race.

That, I believe is why this line seems low. It seems to me the books want all the tennessee action they can get, assuming a letdown this week in a non conference game after beating (and like I said, all but burying) a division opponent they have struggled with forever.

I'm willing to bet ten will pull a bit of a fishy line @ chi next week too if they manage to cover this week vs gb. So, barring any team changing injuries, or chi being favored by more than a TD, I'll be all over chi in that game if ten remains undefeated and covers this weekend.

Its almost like a freebee to take a shot on gb as a dog this weekend, knowing you have a super shot at getting your money back next week with ten @ chi, should you not cash your gb ticket.

At least that's how I see it....

Buf rolls the favres too. The favre name is the only thing keeping that line under nyj +10

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree Stif. After the Titans win, I looked ahead for their losing week...and Week 10 @ the Bears was almost in lights. Assuming the Titans win/cover this week...they'll be laying FG-type road chalk, and the Bears will be live.

The line against GB looks about right to me...not low. GB is thought of as a good team, so I'm not sure you could give them a TD...i was guessing it would be 6.

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't know.....you're probably right as far as public opinion of GB, but to me that line looks low at anything that falls into a pick the winner scenario.

Any other week i'd be all over TEN as a fave of less than 7 against a GB team who is middle of the pack at best, imho

Seems a letdown is not a factor to the public, as they are hammering TEN -5.5 at a large 75% clip so far....as I expected they would be.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Any other week i'd be all over TEN as a fave of less than 7 against a GB team who is middle of the pack at best, imho

Seems a letdown is not a factor to the public, as they are hammering TEN -5.5 at a large 75% clip so far....as I expected they would be.

I agree...and that's going to be a no-play game for me...and I'll hope to catch a FG with the Bears in week 10...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GB off the bye as well...and Tenn on a short week...

[Furashu]

okay i guess i wont play that TENN/GB game.... all signs say no.

what about that NE/IND game?
NE's 5 wins come from pretty bad teams IMO KC,NYJ, SF, DEN, STL.
Indy is in a similar spot to SD, SNF, win or go even more below .500, their defense looked more active vs TENN compared to their first 7 games. NE barely beat STL, who had no sjax.

i know u can say the same about IND, they beat crappy teams in MIN(well not them),HOU, BAL(this was a surprise), but they didnt look like the same crappy team in the first half on MNF. Indy's o-line was also decimated at the beginning of the season and peyton was coming off his knee surgery so his timing was off and their o-line is healthy now, and rhodes showed he can run the ball pretty well. If BAL loses, then theyre tied with CLE in the division.

line is -5.5 /6


also..

how about fading cleveland? for bal +1.5?
Cleveland relies on its run game to develop the pass, stallworth is hurt and last week the only reason the cleveland offense had life was because the jags give up 120yds rushing per game. BAL ...not so easy on the run. the times stallworth was out, braylon was doubled and DA had no one to throw to. BAL has been playing some good defense which will let flacco and mcgahee have more opportunities to score or get a ton of fgs... i like BAL because the public is all over the brown's bandwagon and their win over an overrated JAX team.

[hodown]

I like indy in that one. Pats don't have an overwheling rush offense and I don't think cassel is good enough to take them into a playoff atmosphere environment and pull off a win. The chargers pounded them at home and I say the colts do the same, in what is an absolute must win for indy.

[hodown]

And unless tenn wins handily and chicago struggles, I don't see that line getting to 3.