***NFL Week 10 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Had a busy week 9 so I didn't contribute as much as I had hoped to. Have some free time this week, so let's break down these games


This deep into the season already? Homedogs were 2-3 last week, but were 8-6 the weeks previous. I'm looking into those more in depth this week....


Also going to focus on 1sth moneylines yet again. Went 2-3 for a nice profit, but missed out on a couple too. Blindly playing 1sth ml on every dog Week 9 would have netted 6-7-1 +7.2 units! I am not saying this will happen every week, but by eliminating some 1sth teams & narrowing them down, you could really profit. Last week I automatically eliminated the Texans, Rams, Dallas, Oakland & the Pats as I leaned to the fave on each of them. Had I played every other dog ml, I would have went 6-2-1 & +12 units give or take. So let's get crackin'......

[Underdog88]

This week's homedogs


Falcons+1 vs NO

Bears+3 vs Ten

Raiders+9 vs Car

Lions+6.5 vs Jax



Initial thoughts....


Saints are favored vs Atlanta despite being 0-3 on the road & ATL being 3-0 @home. Is this a line driven by public perception or are the books telling us something? not sure yet- I am not impressed by the Falcons home wins so much given they were vs KC, Detroit & the Bears. 1 real quality win. The Saints lost on the road to Wash, Den & Carolina. One thing is for sure, their defense is terrible. Not a fan of playing road chalk when they have a bad D. Total is high, but IMO warranted. Ryan is still somehow flying under the radar, but looks pretty damn solid to me. Would be tough to play against a Saints team that needs a road win badly, but not out of the question. As of right now, I think the over could be a better option.


Bears/Tenn- not too sure. Titans find ways to win. I am still kicking myself for passing on GB+5 last week & then opting for the ML over the 3.5. Not too sure I want to fade them this week for a couple reasons.

One is the Bears defense IMO is severely overrated. They are 3-1 at home, but have been outgained in every contest. The difference for them has been turnovers, something the Titans do not forfeit easily. Orlovsky threw for 280 2tds. Ferrotte 298 2tds. McNabb 262 1td & Greise lit them up for 407 yds. I think the Titans will test the pass D, with Collins. Besides Donovan these are average passing qbs that were able to find the holes & exploit them.

Second is the run game. Minny was also able to establish the run vs the Bears. The Titans should also be able to. That in turn opens the pass game. Defensively this will be a struggle for Orton. He seemingly regressed last week after putting up solid numbers in the weeks previous. Tenn will bring the pressure, that's for sure.

Another thing that sticks out to me is the high scoring in Bears home games. 3 of 4 have been over 50 points combined, with the lowest total being 44. This week's total is set at 38.5. I would have set it at 42, so I see value in the over. As I stated before there is often value with the over when 2 "defensive" teams face off.



Raiders- Can't make much of a case for them just yet. I will say that laying 9.5 on the road with a team that is 1-2 so far this season (with the sole win being a last second TD when they trailed the whole game) doesn't look like a wise investment. Then again neither does backing the Raiders. Looks like the type of game that I will likely avoid altogether unless something is brought to my attention.


Lions+6.5- Now that's the stuff! Lions playing better than ever, but seemingly can't close the deal to save their life. The Jags are playing horrid football, having lost to the Brown & Bengals. I like it more if Orlovsky starts, bad thumb & all. Don't know if I can back Culpooper is he goes...

[Underdog88]

Favorites that I like & would likely exclude the dog from any consideration (ie 1sth moneylines)


Minnesota-2. Bad spot for GB here IMO. Minny with revenge & GB off a very tough ot loss to the Titans. I would think the Vikings are chomping at the bit to rough up GB. Peterson will probably run for 150+ & this one could be high scoring.


Philly-2.5. Back to back divisional games for the Giants. Since the loss @Clev they have seemingly been coasting, with a 12 pt win vs SF (closer than the score indicates), a dominating road win over Pitt & a comfortable win over Dallas. However, this is a Philly team that will not hesitate to bring pressure vs Eli. Big lean to Philly to stop the streak of losses to the Giants & get the home win/cover.


Other faves that at first glance I would lean to for the su win would be Zona & SD.....

[Underdog88]

This is an area that has really been the turnaround of my season.... I like playing overs better because once they go over, you can't lose



Want to try & discuss these this week as well. First glance leans to.....


Ten/Chi over 38.5

KC/SD o48.5


I tend to think the Den/Clev & Sea/Mia totals are set too high, so would lean under, again just at first glance with no real research into it.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Haven't really looked into this week hard yet, but one play I'll be on for sure is fading those Seahawks again this week. lol. Still no Hasselbeck or Kerney? No chance. Especially on the road with West/East travel, where they've now been outscored 98-26 in three games in that situation. Some crazy North/South travel too...lol. They have virtually no offense with Wallace, and were only mildly competitive on defence with Kerney causing trouble. He's out again this week, and Lofa is questionable as well. But the real fade is Seattle's offense.... even in that win against woeful San Fransisco, they were outgained by 127 yards. I'm not sure how that is going to change in this road spot against a Miami team playing well.

Miami is right in the thick of a divisional race, and are coming into this home game with a boatload of confidence after beating Buffalo and Denver on the road... both easily. I'm happy the early percentages are right down the middle...looks like they enticed Seattle bettors just enough with 9.5 points...but I have no clue how anyone could play Seattle in this spot getting less than double digits, or play them at all. It's not like you can use the home field angle. Thats just me.

Other interesting lines... STL +8. That one almost writes itself. Giants +3. Better team getting a FG in the week's marque matchup, interesting. Not sure about that game just yet. Tenn -3. Grossman fade? I might like that.

Not the best week, IMO...

[hodown]

rex will be starting, not orton. bears defense is absolute ****, but they did shut it down in the second half. no reason not to play overs in every bears game, theyre offense is more than serviceable.

when looking at lines, especially games involving road dawgs, i think its important to look at good teams that are getting points, and bad teams that are giving points. bad teams giving points are:

Jax -6.5 @ Det

A pretty good team getting points is:

Tenn -3 @ Chi

I think Balt winning 3 in a row all on the road might be a difficult test. Also think the Vikes at home getting less than a fg is a nice play, they are tough at home

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

This week's homedogs


Falcons+1 vs NO

Bears+3 vs Ten

Raiders+9 vs Car

Lions+6.5 vs Jax

I agree with all your thoughts UD...the Lions would be the only HD I'd look at, but I wish I was getting better than a pick-the-winner line playing a team that doesn't win. 8 points, and I'm there...lol.

I was looking early at a Chicago play (last week), but agree with your points...and it's Mr. Mistake Sexy Grossman this week, not Orton. Nuff said.

Raiders...no way that can be a play...even with Carolinas struggles on the road...the difference is this week Carolina is off a bye going on the road...oh, and they're playing the Raiders! lol. Likely a no-play.

Falcons I can't cap, and stay away from them every week...lol.

[Underdog88]

Somehow completely missed Grossman starting. I won't be on the Bears. I may be on the Titans.


At first glance I lean to the Ravens on the road yet again. My thought is that if you like the Texans to win, than the over is the better option. the Ravens will put up 20+ points. Houston has done nothing for me to think they could beat a good defensive team.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

And it's Sage starting for Houston as well. Don't like that game either. Might be a short week for me...

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

I agree with all your thoughts UD...the Lions would be the only HD I'd look at, but I wish I was getting better than a pick-the-winner line playing a team that doesn't win. 8 points, and I'm there...lol.
.

If I were to guess, this would be the game that could be the dreaded teaser killer. Another could be the Jets. Some stats that put me at ease with +6.5

6 of 8 Jags games have been decided by less than 6 points. They lost by 7 to Ten & won by 7 @Denver. Their other two wins were a 2 pt last second win @Indy & a 3 pt ot win @home vs Houston. I also kind of like that this line is dropping. I would be wary had it been +7.5-8 but it seems as if they want some $ on the Jags. I don't see why I wouldn't play the 1sth Lions ml again, seeing as they cashed the last 2 for me

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

But who's playing QB for Detroit? Drew Stanton? Not sure I can back an already bad team with a QB making his first NFL start. Culpepper? lmao.

[hodown]

Bears/Tenn over may be the best play in that game. Rexy is always good for a big play and good for two big plays for the other team. Bears defense cant stop ****, and the x-factor is always the Bears special teams. And good call on Miami, didnt notice the west/east thing

[Furashu]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Philly-2.5. a dominating road win over Pitt & a comfortable win over Dallas.

the Pitts game was @ Philly
if that makes a difference.

I am considering going for NYG +3, even thoug Philly looks good.. they struggled vs seattle( didnt score too easy and seattles offense sucks), atl (that blown call), though ill probably stay away.

I am considering playing San Diego -15 or -14, though it is a home play for me so this is completely biased, ron rivera is the new D -cord and LT is healthy again. KC only has 1 rb left in jamal charles( Larry johnson is suspended and kolby smith is out with some bad injury) KC is completely horrible vs the run. Cant say much for San diego's defense, theyve been pathetic but Ron river and a home game in a long time could make a big difference.

One question im wondering is
Why is the line Houston -1.5?
i know u guys said home teams are given -3 usually, but shouldnt it be ravens -3 or -2.5 or something...


Anyone consider STL +8?
i still think the jets suck... they coulda lost vs the bills but trent edwards had about 3 turn overs all by himself, thigpen threw 2 tds in a close game, nyj lost to the horrible raiders. i think NYJ will win by 3 or 4 but not 10.

[Daws1089]

sd-14 made no sense to me. Maybe -10, but 14? SD is STILL getting respect on their lines from last season. KC is a scrappy bunch and are not playing terrible right now. Rivera calling the plays is going to make a difference? No way, still the same guys out there and its tough to get any sort of noticeable change in during a bye week. Thigpen is doing way better than expected and kc is running the ball well. kc or nothing there.



linesmakers are taking a stand on philly. They could have easily made nyg -3. Only thing that worries me as an eagles fan is jacobs. NYG running attack will cause problems for the eagles.

[Daws1089]

I wanted to talk about the STL/NYJ a little. NYJ -8.5? Here is one of the lines where I think the public will be remembering last week a little too much and the line is anticipating that I think. Rams come back to earth and got blown out and the NYJ win at buffalo. Still the fact remains that Favre has been a turnover machine and did nothing in that game last week worth mentioning. They won the game solely on turnovers and some poor coahcing on buffalos part imo. I don't think the Jets are worth being more than a td fav to another team who I consider on their level despite NYJ being in the hunt for the division which is baffling to me. I would be inclined to take the rams or nothing in this game.