Week 13 Discussion

[Daws1089]

I wanted to get this going because I saw some lines I just couldn't believe.


Eagles -3

wtf? books backing the birds here makes me want to back them too. I mean everyones gotta be thinking who the heck can they be favored after the debacles over the last two weeks and the play calling and donovan etc. Eagles defense played really well on sunday especially the front 4 so I'm not really worried about that. Warner is easily rattled. Question is who is going to run the ball with buckhalter having a sprained mcl and westbrook hurt vertualyl all over, they can't turn to lorenzo booker can they? Also, westbrook has a short week so less time to rest. Despite all of this the iggles still favored? I'll try it at -3 +100.


SD-5.5

wtf again? Seriously this team favored again? Why? They do nothing every week and continually lay points to better teams. Only thing I see going for them is falcons off of a big win and maybe a let down going out west. I don't see it. SD sucks and thats about it.


Also, what a ****ty mnf game next week in JAX/HOU. I lean to over 48 there as both teams should run all over each other.

Would love to hear others thoughts on this short week for us and the players.

[Ray James]

Baltimore 9-2 at Cincinnati 6-5...The ravens have won 5 in a row...All my money is on them...

I like my money on Baltimore as well.

[Underdog88]

Initial looks for me....


Buffalo/SF over43- No reason to stop playing Bills overs- Trent should have a little more confidence heading into this one, & I think the offense has gained a little swagger as a whole. With Josh Reed back, they have more options, & Trent was able to distribute the ball evenly last week. This should come in handy against the #29 ranked pass D. Seems as if they have finally found their run game, hopefully they stick to the script there. They can't really stop anyone defensively either, & continue to go without a good passs rush. I can see Gore doing some damage in the run game. Also seems to me that the Bills LBs are straight up terrible when it comes to defending a decent TE in passing downs. Vernon Davis should be able to find some open holes in the middle of the field. Lean on the Bills, but I think I'll be on just the over, maybe Bills team total.

Denver/Jets over48- Jets in a letdown spot, off the Titans win. Everyone is now jumping on their nuts. Denver off a loss to the Raiders, nobody wants to back them. I faded Denver last week vs Oak, & backed them on the ml the previous two games..... I think that 9 is too many points in this spot, two very emotional games in a row for the Jets, a su win as a dog & now favored by 9. Cutler should be able to throw the ball all over the Jets, I am not buying the Jets Defense at all. IMO they could once again get exposed, but I don't know if I trust Denver's D to do anything vs the run! I think if a couple to's go Denver's way, they could get the upset here. JMO.

[Stifler's Mom]

Baltimore just got destroyed by the giants like 2 weeks ago....you butt pirate

[Daws1089]

lol I thought Harry and Sally were banned before?

[Larry]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

Eagles -3

wtf? books backing the birds here makes me want to back them too. I mean everyones gotta be thinking who the heck can they be favored after the debacles over the last two weeks and the play calling and donovan etc. Eagles defense played really well on sunday especially the front 4 so I'm not really worried about that. Warner is easily rattled. Question is who is going to run the ball with buckhalter having a sprained mcl and westbrook hurt vertualyl all over, they can't turn to lorenzo booker can they? Also, westbrook has a short week so less time to rest. Despite all of this the iggles still favored? I'll try it at -3 +100.

Remember also that this a very short turn around for the Cards. PST to EST in 4 days.

[SRN1985]

I think a lot of dogs are gonna make some noise this sunday. The ones I really like and will play so far are Seattle +13, KC +3, and ATL +5.5.

- Hasselbeck beginning to up his percentage and a Dallas secondary isn't something to brag about...possibly a break-out game from Engram would help the situation. Seabirds defense hasn't been all that shabby compared to their 29th ranking; taking the run game completely away from Zona (even though they prefer the pass). I see the ball in the air for the majority of the game from both sides. Seacocks +13 points....nice cushion, I'll take it.


- Good for Oakland ...they always play Denver hard (won a side bet with a friend for a SU Oakland victory; regardless). Of course I'm worried about the corners of the raiders shutting down Thiggy's spread offense, but I'm sure the necessary adjustments will be made and he'll continue to connect with Tony G & Bowe(very underrated WR IMO). Yes, they almost beat my dolphins, but they're a wild card against any match-up in the NFL. Personally, I just don't think the SEC produces NFL worthy quarterbacks in the least. KC+3 sounds good...lots of Oak games come down to FGs too.


- Matt Ryan is THE TRUTH, nuff said!...I've already seen enough from him to know he's the real deal. I don't care if you say "he's just having a good rookie season", this guy has potential to have a Favre type career God-willing.
However, even with 24th ranked defense, they've managed to make some impressive stops. If they can pressure Rivers to throw the ball and get him off his timing....then it's just up to the "Burner", Norwood(who can catch very well too), and my main man White to make it a show. HAWKS +5.5



One favorite I like is the Giants...simply because Campbell is completely lost under center and doesn't know how to make those quick adjustments...I seriously bet Randle El would do a better job. Between Eli & giants D, the skins look like they are in for a wear-down type game. Haven't placed yet, but most likely will.



GL to all this week

[COACH DITKA]

Titans(Tennessee) -11
+/- 44 12:35 ET
Lions(Detroit) +11

This game seems like it has stay away written on it. You would have to think Tennessee bounces back in a big way, esp. CJ and White on the ground b/c well, the Lions flat-out suck. Culpepper has been ineffective and there isn't much there besides Megatron and maybe Kevin Smith. While I don't know if I could back a DD fave on the road starting Kerry Collins at QB, I know there is no way I can back a DD dog at home named the Detroit Lions. Leans to Titans and the UNDER. 27-10 Tennessee

Seahawks (Seattle) +13
+/- 46.5 16:20 ET
Cowboys(Dallas) -13

Are the 'Boys back? Too early to tell I think as SF isn't exactly a juggernaut. However, you have to like the signs: Romo to T.O. and Barber controlling the 4Q behind that massive O-Line. Hasselbeck isn't yet into form but I could see him looking a lot healthier against that Dallas passing defense. Again, a side looks tough here but I think the Squawks can keep it close in a game that hits the OVER. 31-20 Dallas

Cardinals(Arizona) +3
+/- 47
Eagles(Philadelphia) -3

This game caught my eye right away. With the three points to the home team, Vegas is saying these squads are even? Not right not, that's for sure. The Eagles appear to be in disarray ... Westbrook heavily beaten up, the QB controversy, getting pasted by the Ravens, etc. On the other hand, Arizona, despite that loss to the G-Men, have had a surprising season and are on the verge of clinching the division. The passing game seems like it can't be stopped, with Warner torching every man, woman, and child in his path and Larry Fitz and Boldin haulin' in passes like they're goin' outta style. Every thing seems to point to the Cards to me (the public). Well, after last week, no way Joe the Plummer rapes Vegas again. Thus, the Eagles will somehow pull this one out. 31-27 Eagles.


Broncos(Denver) +7.5
+/- 47.5 16:20 ET
Jets(NewYork) -7.5

49ers(SanFrancisco) +7
+/- 42.5 13:05 ET
Bills(Buffalo) -7

Saints(NewOrleans) +3.5
+/- 47.5 13:05 ET
Buccaneers(TampaBay) -3.5

Panthers(Carolina) +3
+/- 43 13:05 ET
Packers(GreenBay) -3

Giants(NewYork) -3.5
+/- 41.5 13:05 ET
Redskins(Washington) +3.5

Ravens(Baltimore) -7
+/- 36.5 13:05 ET
Bengals(Cincinnati) +7

Colts(Indianapolis) -4.5
+/- 45 13:05 ET
Browns(Cleveland) +4.5

Falcons(Atlanta) +5
+/- 49 16:10 ET
Chargers(SanDiego) -5

11/30/08 407 Steelers(Pittsburgh) +1
+/- 40 16:20 ET
Patriots(NewEngland) -1

Chiefs(KansasCity) +3
+/- 41.5 16:20 ET
Raiders(Oakland) -3

Bears(Chicago) +3.5
+/- 42 20:20 ET
Vikings(Minnesota) -3.5

Jaguars(Jacksonville) +3
+/- 48 20:40 ET
Texans(Houston) -3


The rest of my thoughts to come tomorrow ...


Moose

[SRN1985]

Bored, can't sleep...figure I'd throw some more nonsense out there for your entertainment...these are strong leans


Saints +3.5 - Believe the saints roll here even though their coming off short week. However, it was a great win for them going into a division match-up. Should they win...it would shine some light back on their post season hopes. Tampa Bay's defense is known for not giving up the big play, but they almost blew it last Sunday showing their age(good ol' Ronde). All in all, looking at the lack of run game for the bucs and uncertainty of Garcia; I'm gonna ride the Saints train and take the points here. "Brees to Lance Moore...touchdown!!!"



Texan -3 - "Sage, just stay calm and don't panic...you can win this game!!"
Both teams coming in tied for last in their division with neither really showing any ambition, understandably given their rivals. However, this is a MNF showdown @ Houston! J'ville coming off 2 straight losses, gotta bounce back right? Well that depends on 2 major things: Sage's success under center (turnovers) & Jags weakening secondary ability to bounce back. Their defense has been on a steady decline suffering major injuries and with an OT revenge factor in play here, Texans have the green light. Running will be a vital part of each team's game and I expect decent numbers from MJD. With the Jags winning their last game out of 4 at Detroit, including a road loss to the Bengals, texans seem like the logical play here

...Owens, Johnson, Walter, Slaton....how can you not put up points?!?!

[tampayay]

Denver +9, KC +3, Chi +3.5, Buff -5.5

Thougths [on each tmw

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Titans. Gotta come right back with them after their first loss. They lay a beating on the Lions with the whole country watching IMO. How does Tenn not run all over the Lions all day long?

Sea/Dal OVER. Shootout. Rare total play, but it's better than either side IMO. Seahawks defense is weak, and Hasselbeck with another full week of practice, I think their offense is able to put up 20+ on Dallas. That leaves Dallas only needing mid-twenties for an over, and that is likely. They're back healthy and ready to explode down the stretch.

Eagles. Bad spot for Zona, with W>E travel, on a short week into cold weather. Books know it making the sputtering Eagles FG fave. Cards would likely be a 6 point fave at home in this same matchup....so I gotta play the situation.

Broncs/Jets OVER. Another shootout IMO. Denver's defense is atrocious, and will get lit up. But Denver should also score 20+ in a wide-open game. Two QB's with a rep for gunslinging, but ALSO a rep for bad INTs are facing each other...should be a wild one...which has me playing over in this carnival ride.

Packers. Panthers still getting decent respect because of their record, but I'll fade them on the road for the 2nd straight week. They looked ****ty in wins over bottom-feeders Oak/Det, and when they did go on the road and play a decent team like Atlanta, they were exposed. I think they get smoked this week in Lambeau. GB coming off that road prime-time loss will be ready. They've played well at home recently.

Giants. A must play for me every week...all they do is cash. It doesn't matter what spot or who they're playing. If I lay points last week with them on the road in Zona and win, how can I lay off only laying 3 in a divisional game against a Skins team that is falling hard...

Colts. A (usually) well-coached team against a ****-show of a team. Indy rolling, Cleveland a joke. How does Indy not light up that defence? Browns make too many mistakes to compete in this one.

Bills. Bills in a good spot coming back home after a big win...playing a Niner team doing the W>E travel with early start , as well as a Cali team into cold weather. All Buffalo has to do is hold on to the ball, and Edwards knows this by now, after that Cleveland debacle, he had zero TOs in KC. Also a good thing they're playing a team equally as bad with turnovers this year in SF. Bills roll at home in a good spot.

Chargers. God help me, but I love the Bolts this week. I've thankfully managed to lay off them for most of the year, and haven't gone near them in a while, but I'm jumping on this week. Atlanta riding a high, but are not as good on the road....Bolts in desperation mode, playing at home. They still suck, but I think they get it done at home.

Vikings. Bears on third straight road game, Vikings at home looking for revenge of loss at Soldier Field. In a near pick'em gotta go with Minny in a huge divisional game.


JMO. GL.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Tenesee Titans Despite the loss to the Jets
are still the second best team in the nfl playing the worst team in the nfl they should be able to control the clock with the running game and force some t/o on defense even though the public is on Tenn heavy I think they win big

Have a happy Thankksgiving All

Gl

[SRN1985]

Up 3-1 with Texans game pending, didn't want to make a new thread so just updated here where I posted my plays above.

I have Texans-3, along with Sage and Slaton on my FF team who I need a mere 7 points combined from to lock up the 5th seed for the playoffs...so this is a big MNF game for me tonite.


Good Luck & Go Fish!

I have my money on the Jags tonight.