~~ BIFF'S NFL - THANKSGIVING DAY ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

I've convinced myself this isn't a bad decision despite my new found belief against blanket betting and trying to time the market. I will stay at 1%, but I do like all these numbers. I know these are just a few games, but books know this day can be set to be a cash cow with the amount of money the NFL brings in. As for totals, the overs went 11-5 this past week with a 80+ point showing on MNF, 26-17 in the past month, 61-47 in the past 2 months, and 86-69 for the season. Those percentages are 68.8% ... 60.5% ... 56.5% ... 55.5%. Taking overs right now, no matter the circumstance is risky I think. Overs won't hit 70%, and I'm guessing they won't hit over 60% much longer if at all. I've concluded that a 3-0 day is much more likely than a 0-3 day given the teams and the situation. I did do some light capping and found at least one thing that I look for against each offense, and could see each of these games in the 30's. I don't think there is any value in the spreads, I can see covers in all 6 sides. For the free $50 parlay I received I just blanketed the home teams. I think they are all somewhat volatile teams right now. Sticking with the Unders, I like my odds at 2-1 or better day given the risk. Best of luck to everyone. Gooble Gobble.


1% TOTAL = TITANS @ LIONS - UNDER 44 (-110)


1% TOTAL = SEAHAWKS @ COWBOYS - UNDER 47 (-110)


1% TOTAL = CARDINALS @ EAGLES - UNDER 47 (-110)


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