CHICAGO LINE

[JoeyBallgame]

WHY IS THE CHICAGO LINE FLYING UPWARD? IT WAS AT 3 PRETTY MUCH BEFORE GAMES, AND NOW IT IS AT 5...ANYBODY KNOW?

I was leaning toward ChiTown but now im having second thoughts...help?

[redsfann]

Originally Posted by JoeyBallgame

WHY IS THE CHICAGO LINE FLYING UPWARD? IT WAS AT 3 PRETTY MUCH BEFORE GAMES, AND NOW IT IS AT 5...ANYBODY KNOW?

I was leaning toward ChiTown but now im having second thoughts...help?

when the line moves like that its most likely some worthless tout giving out Minny as their 20000 star 'Sunday night favorite play of the year" or some such crap, so....

Hit the Bears +5 really hard, the ML hard and the over 41.5 medium and thank me in 3.5 hours....

[JoeyBallgame]

I'm weary of lines that respond too much to public money...I actually played Chitown at +5, teased it with the over, and played the over too at 41...sometimes, lines respond more to sharp money than they do to donkey money...thanks for the advice though.

[homedawg]

the books will adjust the line due to "HEAVY-ONE SIDED ACTION", or may adjust for a"KEY PLAYER" from pos., doubt., to---> OUT. Most of the time, it's due to the $$$$$ on 1 side compared to the other side, trying to even it out!

GL

[Underdog88]

The refs are on the Bears, how could they not see that late hit


joking












kind of

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

The refs are on the Bears, how could they not see that late hit


joking












kind of

I like it, when the refs are on the team, I bet on!

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by homedawg

Most of the time, it's due to the $$$$$ on 1 side compared to the other side, trying to even it out!

GL

that is the biggest rookie myth in sports betting and it's not true at all. there have been multiple articles on that recently including one i posted this year. they don't want even money on both sides and most of the time take a position on the game. what they don't want is to get hammered by sharp money which will lead to line adjusting. but books don't move lines to get equal action. and that is a 100% fact from the mouths of the guys who run the sportsbooks in the casinos....

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

that is the biggest rookie myth in sports betting and it's not true at all. there have been multiple articles on that recently including one i posted this year. they don't want even money on both sides and most of the time take a position on the game. what they don't want is to get hammered by sharp money which will lead to line adjusting. but books don't move lines to get equal action. and that is a 100% fact from the mouths of the guys who run the sportsbooks in the casinos....

Dammit, read before you post! vegas line opened @ min-3, with heavy one sided action on minne they kept it there, then they moved off the 3 to 3.5, still happy :), late action must have been hard as hell to make them move, because I don't see any key injuries!

Right now Vegas is holding:
Chi +3
Chi +3.5
Chi +4
Chi +4.5
Chi +5


Don't ya think they evened out some action somewhere?

[homedawg]

chi on the 1, min 99yrd td, 14pt swing.

[Underdog88]

crappy bears D killing the under

[JoeyBallgame]

I agree that books take positions on certain games...and that's why I'm leery of line movements that adjust quickly in response to imbalance of the money on one side vs the other...and of course ladies and gents, when you see reverse line movement (i.e. movement begging for more action on a side already being bet heavy, or a line response that is particularly sluggish in responding to a heavy money difference, like the colts line today, we all know which side to take...

that said, even the books are just playing the numbers, and no one really knows what will happen in any game with a real degree of certainty...so when Chicago blows my bet today, who knows why...BOL all!!!