Week 14 Discussion

[Furashu]

Havent seen a discussion thread lately...

Saw some early lines...
I like
ATL +3@ Saints
ATL plays well on turf/inside a dome! Saints are great at home, but ATL is a much better team. That game vs Packers was a fluke with dumb turn overs by the pack. I think Itll be a 3 pt game, I like ATL to win it since theyre running well, its a division game, Saints are a public loved team i guess.

Jets -4.5 @ 49ers
Wow what a low line. SF sucks. They only beat the bills cause the bills are horrible. Name the last game SF won. Mangini laid an egg with those dumb trick plays, but in the perfect weather @ cali, theyll stick to their normal gameplan. I know ive been hating on the jets all year that they suck, but i think theyll win by a TD or 6 at least...

Maybe..
Patriots -5 @ Seahawks
Hawks Looked OKAY vs the Boy's, but couldnt do anything offensively allowing what 6 or 7 sacks? Patriots will bounce back.

I hope for a PK game or DAL favored, steelers play well at home and DAL only beat SF and Hawks which are last place teams in NFC west.

[jd08]

Originally Posted by Furashu

Havent seen a discussion thread lately...

Saw some early lines...
I like
ATL +3@ Saints
ATL plays well on turf/inside a dome! Saints are great at home, but ATL is a much better team. That game vs Packers was a fluke with dumb turn overs by the pack. I think Itll be a 3 pt game, I like ATL to win it since theyre running well, its a division game, Saints are a public loved team i guess.

Jets -4.5 @ 49ers
Wow what a low line. SF sucks. They only beat the bills cause the bills are horrible. Name the last game SF won. Mangini laid an egg with those dumb trick plays, but in the perfect weather @ cali, theyll stick to their normal gameplan. I know ive been hating on the jets all year that they suck, but i think theyll win by a TD or 6 at least...

Maybe..
Patriots -5 @ Seahawks
Hawks Looked OKAY vs the Boy's, but couldnt do anything offensively allowing what 6 or 7 sacks? Patriots will bounce back.

I hope for a PK game or DAL favored, steelers play well at home and DAL only beat SF and Hawks which are last place teams in NFC west.

NFC South home teams are 22-2 this year FWIW. I'd be cautious of that attractive line.

[Underdog88]

IMO a Pats bounceback is a solid wager. Line is low because a very good Steelers team beat NE, but Seattle just doesn't have the defense to contend with the Pats here, IMO...


I would definitely be wary of the Falcons this week. Biggest thing for me is that the Saints are in a revenge spot, having lost @ Atl. Saints once again in a must win situation, at home off a loss. Falcons off a su win as a dog @ sd, usually really tough for a team to get up in this spot. IMO if you expect the Falcons to win su (as you would if you were to play on them), the over would be the better option. The Saints have been held under 27 pts @ home just once this season, TB held them to 24. Last meeting Brees threw for 422 yards, but also had 3 ints in a 34-20 loss.

Very interesting division here IMO. Looking at these team's remaining schedules, I could see this coming down to the wire....

Panthers have the toughest schedule in front of them, vs TB this week (with revenge), then vs Denver, @NYG & @NO.

TB has @Car, @Atl (Falcons revenge game), vs SD & vs Oak.

Saints would likely have to win out to have a shot, but they aren't out just yet. Big lean on the Saints here....

[Daws1089]

I know the raiders suck, but SD a double digit fav AGAIN? I don't understand how they can keep making this awful SD team a fav every week. I'm not saying Oakland should be favored by any means, but I think -7 or -6 would make for a little more even action. Even if SD wins this game, now they gotta win by 2 touchdowns? I don't like those odds. I could definitely see this game going under though. Both teams will be able to run the ball. The total is set lower and we could see a bunch of fgs in this one.



Because the Eagles played well last week and everyone thinks things are okay now, the public sees them getting 9 at NYG and think oh yea thats a lot of points and they only lost by 5 last game. No, the first meeting was dominated by the giants besides the 2nd quarter and should never have been a 5 pt game at the end. More like 12. The Giants are going to run the ball and there is nothing the eagles can do about it. I would expect a more concentrated effort by both teams on defense in this game as last meeting neither played much of it.

[Underdog88]

Titans -13.5 looks good to me, maybe Cleveland team under. Was on the Browns last week vs Indy, largely because the Colts can't stop the run. Now the Browns have no qb & are on the road vs a solid D. Shouldn't be close....

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

I know the raiders suck, but SD a double digit fav AGAIN? I don't understand how they can keep making this awful SD team a fav every week.

I think I'm done trying to figure out this team lol. I get the feeling that if I try fading them, they'll show up...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Agree with the Pats. They are going to throttle Seattle, IMO...who could be the 2nd worst team in football. The Steelers and Seahawks defences aren't exactly similar. Everyone was back in love with NE, and Cassell before they met Pittsburgh, and now they only lay 4.5 against a horrible Seattle team? The Steelers make alot of QBs/offences look bad....they will bounce back IMO.

Also think the Cowboys are back to being a little over-rated after two wins over the NFC West. To be able to get that Steelers defence at home only laying 2.5 seems good to me. Dallas defence still not great, IMO (except for Ware), and I wouldn't wanna back Romo in a hostile wintery December Heinz field being pressured by the Pitt defence all day. Playing a good team on the road for the first time in a while, I think Dallas gets exposed.

I also like NYG once again this week...laying a home TD. Going to keep riding that moneytrain. Public loved the +9 points right away, and have hammered the number down already (I can get NYG -7 -114 right now). I can't believe the public is fading the Giants at home to the tune of 63%. With the way Philly played last week, there seems to be an Eagles/McNabb love-in again. BUT...that was a great spot with over-rated Zona travelling East on a short week. I was on the Eagles too, because of the spot. But remember, before that game, Philly was stinking it up large, and now they play on the road against the leagues best in a divisional, rivalry game. They get smoked, IMO.

Also looking at backing Miami in Toronto against the reeling Bills. I expect the fans to be split in this one, so it's no real home field advantage. There is also no weather advantage like most years, with Miami coming North in December, with the domed stadium in TO. Buffalo's QB situation is a mess (Edwards hasn't been the same since his concussion), and the Bills simply aren't the better team here, and really should be dogged in this neutral site IMO.

Might take a look at playing a Cards 1st half play. IMO, they come out gunning at home against the Rams secondary after the embarassing loss last week, and get ahead early. Don't trust their defence/secondary to hold off a backdoor cover, so I think a first half play might be the best option there.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

I think I'm done trying to figure out this team lol. I get the feeling that if I try fading them, they'll show up...

Yeah...I agree, that Thursday game is a noplay...and just a small total play for me.....what a stinker of a matchup!!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Titans -13.5 looks good to me, maybe Cleveland team under. Was on the Browns last week vs Indy, largely because the Colts can't stop the run. Now the Browns have no qb & are on the road vs a solid D. Shouldn't be close....

I agree...at first glance I was thinking cover ....but how does Cleveland compete with nothing to play for...no QB, no TE, on the road.....could get ugly...

[Daws1089]

I think the over in the Houston/GB game is one to consider at 48.5. Neither team can stop the run, but both can run it. Unless there is snow in lambeau I think this one can get to 31-24 no problem. GB hasn't stopped anybody at all lately. Brees and co. get 51 on mnf and then the hapless Jake even succeeds on them and D williams runs everywhere. Gotta go over or nothing.

[Daws1089]

Well,

Charles Grant, Deuce McCallister, and Will Smith of the saints all suspended for the last 4 games as well as pat and kevin williams of the vikings. Huge blow to that defense of minnesota.

[FlyersFan]

i just want to know how Udog cheaped out a bye in the first round of the playoffs with the 5th most points in the league............

[Furashu]

DAL vs PITTS 40.5 U/O
i like the over on that game. DAL should score at least 21 and pitts 21...
tie game :)

but yeah i like the over. Pitts should have no problem running it and passing it. Hawks drove down what 5 times but had those dumb turnovers/fgs.

i wonder why the DEN line is so High 49 pts? KC barely scores 13 pts a game.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

i just want to know how Udog cheaped out a bye in the first round of the playoffs with the 5th most points in the league............

Just win baby

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

Well,

Charles Grant, Deuce McCallister, and Will Smith of the saints all suspended for the last 4 games as well as pat and kevin williams of the vikings. Huge blow to that defense of minnesota.

Man, I'd love it if the Williams' being out affected the line down to a TD or so. I'd still play the Vikings, as they are going to run all over Detroit. The early line (no suspensions) was -9.5 I believe.