Titans @ Texans

[daft_picks]

Being a Titans fan I think they are the team I have the best read on. I see some people out there who like the Texans as a homedog this weekend and I just want to warn I DO NOT think this is a good spot to bet against the Titans.

I'm not exactly sure what the Titans ATS record is this season, I wanna say it's around 10-2 or 9-3. But with this spread as a pick the winning type situation, what is their that points to the Texans?

Surely it's not the Titans' 7-0 record against the texans in their seven most recent. Or the 5-1 record Titans own at Reliant stadium. Or the fact that the Titans are playing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they win this game and Pitt loses then it is secured and they don't have to worry about the Steelers or the Colts game.

What do the Titans do best? Run the ball. Where does Houston rank against the run? 24th, even lower (or higher if you play fantasy) if you count TD's. Sure Schaub was great against the Packers weak secondary, but check out Schaub's stat line when the Titans met last and he was healthy:

17 37 45.9 % 188 yds 0 TD 3 int (1 for TD) 2 fumbles 27.8 rating

Collins threw 1 TD and 1 pick, titans won that game 31-12. Titans will win the turnover battle this game, and that usually translates to winning the game. Nothing is a guarantee in this league, but I think the smart play is Titans -3 @ -120. I'm laying 5 units on it myself. Regardless I think it should be Titans or no play.

BOL to all this weekend

[Stifler's Mom]

Schaub's stat line really is all the farther you must go to tell the story behind the 31-12 game last time these 2 met.

5 turnovers for HOU, vs 1 for TEN. No team in the NFL is going to compete with a -4 turnover ratio, especially not on the road vs a team better than them.

Otherwise, it was an evenly played game for the most part, and the final TEN TD was a worthless 100 yd INT runback with little/no time left in the game. HOU knocked on the door all day, but couldn't get in, and didn't even kick FG's, but rather kept going for it on 4th down and not succeeding.

If TEN wins the turnover battle by 2 or more turnovers again, then I'm sure the result will be similar to last time, but if not, i'd be shocked if this isn't an evenly played game down to the end.

This is alot like NYJ @ SF last week to me...where it looked just way too easy.

GL with your play, even though I can't help but disagree with which side the value is actually on for the reasons i stated above.

[daft_picks]

I understand entirely what you're saying, but winning the turnover battle is one the things the Titans do best and why they are having such a great season. Our defense creates lots of turnovers and our offense rarely gives the ball up. I have no doubt this will be hard fought, I think both these teams are pretty even offensively but defensively it is no contest.

I watched that first game between these 2 teams, and while yes they did stop kicking field goals it was because they felt threatened enough to have to score big or we would just run away with it. Even if you take away the INT return and give Houston another TD it would have still been enough for a cover. Some people see a letdown game here, I see an opportunity for this team that hopefully they will not let get away. Again a pick the winner situation. BOL either way!

I think the Texans could win this game.

[tdawgmd]

agree with bettor and stiff--texans are a very good team, and much better than their record indicates. I think the titans are a solid team, but not nearly as good as their gaudy record. Daft--you really can't cap turnovers. You can factor it in to the equation, but you can't count on them. Houston with Schaub is much less likely to turn the ball over than with Rosenfels. If houston turns it over twice or less, I think they cover. If it is more than that, the titans win and cover. I am betting on the Texans to turn it over less than that this go round. Moneyline on the texans looks like a solid play at this point.

[FlyersFan]

GL!...daft....

i personally think this game is a close game.......but hopefully you get to the window with your team...

[tampayay]

angles, stats and trends out the window, the game is pretty damn close...

[daft_picks]

For the kids! If the Titans prevail -3 in this game expect a $20 donation! If not

BOL all...