***Week 17 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

So many meaningful games this season, great matchups & tons to talk about. This is the week that you usually have some out of whack lines because some teams have nothing to play for. Some lines already out, waiting on some.


Ravens- Not too fond of this huge number for Baltimore, especially when they are coming off a su win as a dog. Typically not the best spot to lay a ton of chalk. However, the Jaguars have lost their last two road games by 13 pts, @Houston & @Chicago. Also the Ravens win & they are in the playoffs.... I just don't see the Ravens choking this game away. No way that defense lets Garrard throw all over them, & I think there's a great chance the Ravens D puts up points here. Plain and simple the Ravens are too good of a team to not make the playoffs. Look at their losses this season...


Lost by 3 @ Pitt in ot

Lost by 3@ home vs Titans

Lost @ Indy bad

lost @ NYG bad

Lost by 4 @ Pitt


All losses to playoff bound teams. The Steelers games both could have went either way, & I would say the only really bad loss was to the Colts, who just have their number. The loss vs the Giants was bad, but they were in a very bad spot having to play their 3rd straight road game. I think the Ravens win rather comfortably, but 12 pts? One fluke td & they Jags could cover. Then again I don't think the Ravens would be dumb & take their foot off the pedal here. Strong lean to the Ravens here. Going to be a play in some form. With the current line I would think the team total comes out 23.5 juiced which is an option for me as well.

[Underdog88]

So do the Chargers somehow find their way into the playoffs by beating the **** out of Denver? Denver has been great to me as dogs this season, SD has sucked balls as faves, & I would think after the Bills beat Denver, they won't be getting too much public support. Someone talk me off of playing the Denver ML.

[Daws1089]

i looked at the denver line and thought the exact same thing. How the eff is SD back to being a -9 fav? They win one game and are now fixed? Do the books really think SD is back and kills Den? Weird line imo.

[tdawgmd]

The SD game is probably a layoff for me. I do think that SD is a much better team than their record indicates, and Denver is a much worse team than their record. Denver's defense is horrible, and their scoring margin going into last week was 23-26 in favor of their opponent. How you have a winning record with that average game score is beyond me.

Couldn't back denver at this point, but the Chargers scare me too--Denver certainly could make it a shootout against their D and keep it close in a high-scoring game.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

So do the Chargers somehow find their way into the playoffs by beating the **** out of Denver? Denver has been great to me as dogs this season, SD has sucked balls as faves, & I would think after the Bills beat Denver, they won't be getting too much public support. Someone talk me off of playing the Denver ML.

Udog- im a pretty "both sides" player in the NFL. Had 2 dogs yesterday, sometimes i have favorites....etc....i am not one of those who runs around looking to play only dogs or only favorites (both of which i think is just ludicrous). So that is a preface to my point:

how in the world can you play denver on the ML?? They have been outscored this year by 60 points for starters. That is like 4th worst in the AFC. They are going in the wrong direction and outside of what looks like a pretty phony win vs. the Jets on the road, what have they done? They have 1 respectable road performance vs. a decent team all year and that was versus the Falcons. I mean this "circle the wagons" stuff can only take you so far. If they were going to circle the wagons, i would assume that they would have done so versus Buffalo. bottom line is that their defense can't get a meaningful stop versus anyone. I don't necessarily like SDG all that much, though, i do think they win the game. I mean maybe take the points but i wonder how much confidence this DEN team can have right now. And SDG has all the momentum in the world coming into this one. I think you need to include that in the handicap of the game.

I think that this is the wierdest division race i can remember and it's capped off by one of the strangest lines i've seen. But if the oddsmaker wanted SDG money, i think they would have set the line more around -6 or so. -7+ is begging for DEN money and it won't be mine.

GL if you play it....

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

how in the world can you play denver on the ML?? They have been outscored this year by 60 points for starters. That is like 4th worst in the AFC. They are going in the wrong direction and outside of what looks like a pretty phony win vs. the Jets on the road, what have they done? They have 1 respectable road performance vs. a decent team all year and that was versus the Falcons. I mean this "circle the wagons" stuff can only take you so far. If they were going to circle the wagons, i would assume that they would have done so versus Buffalo. bottom line is that their defense can't get a meaningful stop versus anyone. I don't necessarily like SDG all that much, though, i do think they win the game. I mean maybe take the points but i wonder how much confidence this DEN team can have right now. And SDG has all the momentum in the world coming into this one. I think you need to include that in the handicap of the game.

1. This whole outscored by a huge margin thing is a nonfactor to me. Denver was pounded in 3 games, being outscored by 75 pts when you combine them. None were against the Chargers as 10 pt dogs.

2. What they have done to make me consider playing the ml is won su as dogs 3 times. (I was on them all 3 times, so admittedly there could be some bias).

3. SD has done enough this season to keep me from playing them as large faves. They are 4-8 ats as faves this season! 2 of those ats wins were vs the Raiders, & they beat the Jets & NE as faves @ home. If you discredit the Jets as a quality win for the Broncos, then you must do the same for SD. So you would say the Chargers only have 1 quality win as a fave, vs NE? What did this team do to get better- catch a reeling TB team sleeping? Capitalize on a horrid KC team after trailing the whole game? (for the second 1 pt win vs them this season.)



Why is it so crazy to consider Denver to win su? They have the #3 passing attack and are facing a pass D that is ranked #31 in the NFL. Denver can't stop the run, allowing 136 per game/ 4.8 ypc, but the Chargers have the #28 rushing offense (3.8 ypc 95 ypg). Denver has a better run game, averaging 4.7 ypc 118 per game. I think SD's weaknesses play into the Broncos strengths. Denver is ranked higher statistically everywhere but in run D.

I definitely include momentum in my capping, but it's definitely not the end all & be all. I guess I just think the line is wrong, & if I'm taking the points I am definitely playing the ml. The question is this... is the line inflated because of public perception, or because vegas is thinking SD rolls?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

how in the world can you play denver on the ML?? They have been outscored this year by 60 points for starters. That is like 4th worst in the AFC. They are going in the wrong direction and outside of what looks like a pretty phony win vs. the Jets on the road, what have they done? They have 1 respectable road performance vs. a decent team all year and that was versus the Falcons. I mean this "circle the wagons" stuff can only take you so far. If they were going to circle the wagons, i would assume that they would have done so versus Buffalo. bottom line is that their defense can't get a meaningful stop versus anyone. I don't necessarily like SDG all that much, though, i do think they win the game. I mean maybe take the points but i wonder how much confidence this DEN team can have right now. And SDG has all the momentum in the world coming into this one. I think you need to include that in the handicap of the game.

I think that this is the wierdest division race i can remember and it's capped off by one of the strangest lines i've seen. But if the oddsmaker wanted SDG money, i think they would have set the line more around -6 or so. -7+ is begging for DEN money and it won't be mine.

I agree 100%. Two pathetic teams, and neither deserves to be there. Saying that... I think SD wins this game fairly easy.

[Underdog88]

I also think that Dallas wins @ Philly. Haven't really looked into that one fully though...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

I also think that Dallas wins @ Philly. Haven't really looked into that one fully though...

Hardest game to cap this whole season, IMO.
I mean...how in the world can anyone predict how either of the jeckle-and-hyde teams play this week?

Books agree, essentially making it a pickem. They're stumped too.

I'm laying off that one I think...because my brain would hurt even attempting to try and make a play...lol.

GL!

[Drigger]

Does Indy have anything to play for? Can they improve their position?

Tenn -3 seems a little off to me. I would figure that Indy should have the edge but probably no playoff implications on this game?!?!?!

[PhillyFan3]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Hardest game to cap this whole season, IMO.
I mean...how in the world can anyone predict how either of the jeckle-and-hyde teams play this week?

Books agree, essentially making it a pickem. They're stumped too.

I'm laying off that one I think...because my brain would hurt even attempting to try and make a play...lol.

GL!

If TB wins, bet your bankroll on the Eagles, they are the kings of winning meaningless games
If TB loses, bet the Cowboys, Eagles are the worst coached team in the NFL....McNabb will give another choke performance, I dont understand the nerve of this guy to question him getting benched like he is bigger than the game itself, you know what Don, you have been humming nuts, and I am sick of watching you sit around in the pocket all day long and throw the ball at our wide reciever's feet...The Eagles have one of the 3 best running backs in the NFL, the biggest offensive line in the NFL that lives for run blocking, but Andy Reid who fails to address the need of WR, TE continues to throw the ball LJ Smith how the hell does that guy even see the field, I have never seen some one drop so many catches and miss so many blocks.......but anyways screw the Eagles even if they make the playoffs somehow, I had a Dallas ticket and I sold it earlier today, I am personally not wasting any more money on this team until they show they are looking to win, because if you ask me they strive on mediocraty, Lurie and his gold standard

both defenses have been looking good for each team, and both quarterbacks are known for ****ting the bed in big spots, and unless they play Barber more Dallas is going to struggle, because Choice will not do damage to the Birds....I think the safest bets would be under, and player prop bets on Jason Witten(over in receptions, recieving yds)....because you know these two coaches are going to do their finest jobs in trying to lose this game with terrible coaching decisions

[PhillyFan3]

anyone else think that ATLANTA wins the NFC South next week?? They host STL, Carolina plays at NO, and no one wins on the road in the NFC South

[Daws1089]

great points about the eagles flyers, but i think herm edwards takes the cake on worst coaches in the nfl.

[FlyersFan]

Udog- GL!...whatever you play. I just find it difficult to believe they are going to beat SDG in SDG on a Sunday night when they have no momentum and SDG has all the momentum. This has nothing to do with going into New York and beating an overinflated Jets team in the middle of the season. They let SDG back into this one and i don't think SDG lets them off of the hook. Just my opinion. And as i said last week, been doing pretty well with the initial thoughts and mine here is that SDG wins but doesn't cover.

But i mean ****....what teams this year haven't won as a dog. I mean to say DEN has won 3 times as a dog....so have the freeking bengals. Unless you're DET it's pretty much inevitable you will win as a dog sometime. Can DEN win...sure. Will they win, don't think so.

But as i said, GL!...i won't be anywhere near that game. 2 teams that should be home for the playoffs and neither one is worth a ****, IMO.


I also agree with JML on the DAL/PHI game. If you can tell which DAL team is going to show up then you have a crystal ball.

[PhillyFan3]

Denver lost 2 more rb's for this sunday, pope and young