Divisional Round Discussion

[Stifler's Mom]

Now that I'm done being pissed at Minny for sucking and giving up that 71 yard TD on a screen play that basically cost me the cover in that game, lol, I was wondering what everyone thought of next week's games.

The only one I have a strong opinion right now is Pittsburgh. They should crush feeble SD. Playing on the road vs the best defense in the NFL who is also rested off a bye will expose the fact that they don't have a healthy LT or Gates, imo, plus they just blow to begin with. I assume Big Ben will play, but I don't even care if he doesn't. Leftwich is more than capable, and should have something to prove and a bit of a chip on his shoulder after catching what i feel was a bit of a raw deal in Jacksonville, so if he plays, then so be it. That wouldn't change my mind.

I want to fade TEN too after the way they laid down in week 17 cause history has proven that's nothing but a path to disaster, but it appears so does everyone else on earth, and that worries me a little bit. I'm completely undecided on that game. I wasn't terribly impressed with BAL today to be quite honest. They should have won by 30+ with all those turnovers, yet it was still only 20-9 in the 4th qtr with Miami driving. That's unacceptable, imho. Should have been 41-9 at that point if you ask me with all those picks Noodle Arm threw, plus however many lost fumbles Miami had.

Philly opened at +5.5 @ NYG and is now down to +4. NYG didn't exactly end the season too strong, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Eagles go to NY and take em out....although I'm not sold enough on that opinion to make a play yet. I still think the Eagles are a team that could go all the way. They played well today, and deserved to win. I guess I should have trusted my thoughts from a few weeks back when I said they were super bowl bound....just prior to taking a crap all over FedEx Field in what amounted to a must win at that time. In any case, Philly has all the pieces in place to beat anyone. The question is, are the Giants that team that couldn't be stopped for the first 10 or so weeks of the season, or the extremely average team that didn't really impress me at all down the stretch?

I don't get the other line @ CAR -10. It seems like far far too much, which almost makes me want to play it. I said in about week 4 that Carolina blew, and I still don't think much of them to be quite honest. Maybe I'm wrong? Maybe the idea of backing the Cardinals on the east coast is enough to make me want to vomit? But I do like their new found running game and the fact that they played something that resembled defense against Atlanta. Hmmmm....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Pretty much agree with all your thoughts.

Already have a Pitt -5 play in on Pinnys opening line, as I was glad to lay less than a TD, and it was the only side I was positive I would be on by weeks end. I didn't give SD much of a chance last week, but with homefield, a gamer of a QB, a career game by your backup RB, and a few fortunate calls...they squeaked out the home OT win. Props to them, but this is a far worse situation...going on the road into a cold weather stadium playing that defence, and a top 5 team overall, off a bye is a whole different story.

I'll be on Philly as well. My Philly play WC week had alot to do with momentum, and the fact I think by getting into the playoffs the way they did, it could be something special. They have all the feel of last years Giants. The current Giants laboured down the stretch, and don't seem as confident, and are not coming into this game with momentum. This is a team that got smoked by Dallas down the stretch in week 13, and we know how the Cowboys were playing everyone else. I don't know...mostly hunches here, but I'm going to continue to ride the Eagles.

I'll probably grab the FG with Baltimore. I never really bought into Tenn's early season run, fading them a few times in the second half, and I'm not sure I buy them right now either. They finished the season 3-3, with maybe one quality win. I think they are a good team, but still a bit over-hyped because of their start. I think this game is the closest of the 4 games this week, with Baltimore's defence being the difference once again. Much like they did against Miami, they are going to load up to stop the run, and make an OK, but questionable QB beat them. Kerry Collins had a decent year, but I'm still not sure I trust him in the playoffs against the Ravens D. Don't Collins and Pennington have similar skill sets? And what did the Ravens defence do to Pennington? Don't Miami and Tennessee both have a good 2-back running game that is the big part of their offence? I see a Ravens defence winning the game in similar fashion to WC week, probably by a closer FG type score b/c of a better Tenn defence.

I agree that Carolina game is a toughy. Laying DD in a playoff game against a respectable foe is always probably considered dumb...even if it is a Cards team that doesn't travel well. BUT, I think it might be the better of the two plays (although I'm not too excited about either side). To make a play on Zona, who were a 3-5 road team this year, and who were pretty much blown out every time they went East doesn't interest me at all....at ANY line. lol. Carolina was also a perfect 8-0 at home, which has to account for something...especially when combined with the Cards road woes. Also...and I usually don't care about this ****, but with a DD playoff line, aren't the books begging you to take the Cards? They looked good beating a good ATL team WC week, and 10 is ALOT! I thought it would be 7, books made it a big significant 2 score number like 10. They want Zona cash IMO. Early money coming in on Zona as well. hmmm. Might look a game or team totals in that one instead..., but if forced I'd lay the number...

GL

[homedawg]

minny ending sucked! Tjack gives a pick 6 1h, akers 4/4fgs, rocca kickin' the **** out of the ball, jackson returning punts back to kluwe, and minne was still in it, until the bottom half of the 4th!


pinny opened pit -6.5 +100, now down to pit-6 -109

[FlyersFan]

great teaser this week in PIT +1 and CAR -3 (-130) IMO.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by homedawg

pinny opened pit -6.5 +100, now down to pit-6 -109

]

how is JML getting -5 at pinny and you're seeing it open at 6 1/2 and down to 6

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

how is JML getting -5 at pinny and you're seeing it open at 6 1/2 and down to 6

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

how is JML getting -5 at pinny and you're seeing it open at 6 1/2 and down to 6

It's all about the juice. He doesn't follow Pinny's actual "-110" number just some sort of "official" number. Pinny just makes this official line a plus number, and moves it to keep away from bad teaser lines...but the actual "real" -110 is available too. That was -5 when it opened.

As a member, I log in and see the lines. It was -6.5 +105 or so, when I first saw it, but it gives you lines for 1.5 points each way. It was -5 -110. That's what I consider the actual number...whatever is closest to -110. If they listed -8 +140...I wouldn't consider that the actual number either. Pinnys always been like that...so reading official lines from a tracking site isn't accurate (IMO).

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Back to actual discussion instead of line-haggling...lol....

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

great teaser this week in PIT +1 and CAR -3 (-130) IMO.

Yeah...that's one option...teasing Carolina...and I'm sure that will be a popular option. Cause I certainly think the Panthers win that home game...

GL FF!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I assume the Titans D-Linemen and Centre are back this week?

[homedawg]

I'm getting..... pitt -5 @ -124
Why do people spend money on juice? You gotta pay to bet, and if you lose, you pay more? F'k that! I look for even or +$$$$!

[Daws1089]

Im thinking that Pitt -6 or -6.5 looks like its begging for Pitt money. Less than a TD off a bye week, to a team we all think (me included) has no business even being in the playoffs? I was thinking to myself during the colts/chargers game. What if SD just starts playing like they did last year and continue to step up and keeping playing good football. Because let's face it, they have won 5 in a row. Yea they beat **** teams, but the Colts aren't ****ty although aren't as good as I had thought. The Chargers could win this game even without LT and have a great revenge angle.

[Daws1089]

Im thinking that Pitt -6 or -6.5 looks like its begging for Pitt money. Less than a TD off a bye week, to a team we all think (me included) has no business even being in the playoffs? I was thinking to myself during the colts/chargers game. What if SD just starts playing like they did last year and continue to step up and keeping playing good football. Because let's face it, they have won 5 in a row. Yea they beat **** teams, but the Colts aren't ****ty although aren't as good as I had thought. The Chargers could win this game even without LT and have a great revenge angle.

[Underdog88]

My initial thoughts


SD@Pitt- I won't be laying pts with Pitt here, that's for sure. SD proved they could come into Pitt & hang (11-10 very tough loss, so a little revenge angle cooking too). 6.5 to me looks like "Pitt just has to win by a touch?". I see this as a fg game either way. SD's D looks like they have come alive, the question is can they do it on the road? For the record, LT out makes no difference to me, as Sproles has proven he is more than capable...


Ravens@Titans- Baltimore has been great to me this season, so it will be tough to play against them. However, the entire free world saw them dominate the Dolphins yesterday, & had they squeeked by in a close one, this line would be Tenn-4.5 imo. Titans still aren't getting any respect. The Dolphins couldn't protect the ball vs the Ravens D, & could generate absolutely no run game. 5 turnovers went the Ravens way, don't see the Titans doing the same thing. Flacco was 9-23 for 135 yards, & really got nothing going in the second half, despite the ground game getting over 150. He has another game like that, & the Titans win by 10+. The Titans were outplayed earlier in the season @Balty, but still managed a 3 pt win....


Thnking about an over play in the Carolina game. May throw them in a teaser because I don't see them losing su to Zona. Have to look into that one further.

Really not sure what to think in the Giants/Philly game, but it should be great. One thing I know is that Philly isn't facing Tavaris Jackson this time. Minny was able to run the ball, & IMO if Philly let's NY run for 148+, they won't win the game. Tough to go against a team that appears to have all the momentum going into this one though....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Minny was able to run the ball, & IMO if Philly let's NY run for 148+, they won't win the game.

I thought Philly did a great job against the run actually. This was supposed to be AP's big day, and if you take away that ONE 40 TD run, he was held to 43 yards on 19 carries. I think Minny was expecting more ALOT more from him, and I think Philly was more than happy with their run defence yesterday. Watching the game, it seemed to me AP was getting stuffed at the line all night. Yeah...Taylor had 48 decent yards, but I don't think Minny was planning on riding average days by him to the SB. Philly shut down AP, IMO...and that was a huge part of the win.

I agree...that game should be great!


Agree with the Zona/Carolina angle....might be looking at a Panthers/Over teaser myself...

GL UD

[Underdog88]

While overall I would say Philly did an ok job vs the run, they still allowed 148 yds. The fact remains that they did allow a big td run, & that's AP's style anyway- stopped for minimal gains & then he busts a long one. I do agree AP was getting stopped at the line, but the Vikings had no threat of a pass game to keep the Eagles honest! Taylor was getting in some nice runs, & I think between Jacobs & Ward the Giants will be able to move the ball. First meeting between the two NYG had 219 total rushing yards. Second time Philly was in a nice revenge spot & shut down the run for the road win. To me it comes down to whether or not the Giants establish a solid run game. Right now I'm leaning towards them being able to run @ home. The loss vs Philly was the only home game where they were shut down on the ground- I think they redeem big time.