The not-so-secret to our success

[Billy Barooooooo]

The not-so-secret to our success
January 11, 2009


Looking for a consistently reliable indicator of postseason success?

How about our Defensive Hog Index.

Since we introduced the indicator last year, it has correctly identified the winner in 18 of 19 playoff games – that’s a .947 batting average for those of you keeping score at home.

Hell, we didn't even realize how good it was until a CHFF Troll reamed us a new a-hole last Sunday morning, after the first two wildcard games. With Pittsburgh's win over San Diego Sunday afternoon, the Defensive Hog Index has now gone 8-0 identifying winners in the 2008 postseason, after posting a 10-1 mark last year.

If all goes according to plan, the Steelers (No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index) will beat the Eagles (No. 2 in the Defensive Hog Index) three weeks from now in Super Bowl XLIII.

The performance of the indicator highlights what’s been a pretty stellar run for our Quality Stats over the past two postseasons (the two years since we introduced our full suite of current Quality Stats).

In fact, our Quality Stats have taken a bit of a beating from some of our critics this year, who pounce on us every time we get something wrong. But maybe the critics need do what all our critics do best: prostrate themselves at our feet, bow in fearful worship of our greatness and beg for forgiveness.

Take a look at how our indicators stack up over the past two postseasons against two reasonably respected indicators of success: home teams and Vegas favorites.
Home teams are a humble 8-10 over the past two postseasons.
Vegas favorites are just 9-10 over the past two postseasons.
Seven of our nine indicators have outperformed the record of the home teams over the past two playoff seasons.

In addition, five of our nine indicators have performed better than the Vegas favorites all by their lonesome – that is, in five cases the team that our indicators said was better wins more often than the Vegas favorite.

Two of our indicators (Passing Yards Per Attempt and Defensive Passer Rating) have the same mark over the past two postseasons as the Vegas favorites (9-10).

And just two of our indicators (Offensive Hog Index and Bendability) have failed to perform as well as the Vegas favorite.

All in all, it’s pretty stellar rate of success. Let's put it another way: if you look at our indicators in a vacuum (that is, if you take into account nothing else but a single CHFF Quality Stat), they routinely outperform the teams the Wise Guys peg as winners.

Oh, and if you’re wondering about the one team to trip up our otherwise perfect Defensive Hog Index?

It was the 16-0 Patriots, who beat the Chargers last year in the AFC title game. But it was real, real close: the Patriots finished the 2007 season ranked No. 7 in our Defensive Hog Index. The Chargers ranked No. 5.

So, in other words, it took the only 16-0 team in NFL history to mess up the perfection of the indicator.

Here's how each CHFF Quality Stat stacks up over the past two postseasons, compared with home teams and Vegas favorites, when it comes to indentifying winners:

Defensive Hog Index – 18-1
Scoreability – 11-8
Big Play Index 10-9
Average ranking – 10-9 (how teams rank across the board in our eight main Quality Stats)*
Relativity Index – 10-9
Passing Yards Per Attempt – 9-10
Vegas favorites – 9-10
Defensive Passer Rating – 9-10
Home team – 8-10
Bendability – 8-11
Offensive Hog Index – 7-10 (two games featured teams tied on the OHI)

[Billy Barooooooo]

sorry didnt know they had a forum just was posting the article