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notes for next year
General Divisional Playoff Round Trends Although the home and road teams split the four wildcard games of a year ago, the hosts were only able to beat the Vegas number in one the games, that being Green Bay over Seattle. Those results extended what has now become a significant run of 9-1 ATS dominance by the road team in the Divisional Round. Of this years home teams, Carolina, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, only the Steelers have hosted a Divisional Round game in the last five years. Home teams have won 47 of the 64 Divisional Round playoff games since 93. The ATS results are exactly split 31-31-2. Road teams have been the hot bet of late, on runs of 9-1 ATS the L10 Divisional Round playoff games and 14-6 ATS in the L20. Of the last 12 Divisional Round playoff games with pointspreads in the competitive +3 to -3 range, home teams are just 7-5 SU & 5-6-1 ATS. Double-digit Divisional Round favorites own a low 10-5 SU & 7-7-1 ATS record since 93, and are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS over the last three seasons. The higher the pointspread, the better the chance for a high scoring game in the Divisional Round. In games with a favorite line of -6.5 or more, the OVER is 24-13. #1 Seeds in Divisional Round playoff games are 7-3 SU since 04, but just 2-8 ATS. AFC #1s have lost five straight games ATS. UNDER the total is on a 9-2-1 run in #1 seeded games. Since the 00 season, there have been seven occasions where one team has gone into the playoffs with the leagues best record. That team is 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in the Divisional Round. This year that team is Tennessee. #2 Seeds have split their last 10 games outright and are 4-6 ATS. OVER is the more common total occurrence in those contests, 7-3. The top two seeded AFC teams have been more prone to upsets lately than their NFC counterparts. Since 04, AFC Divisional Round hosts are 5-5 SU & 2-8 ATS. Those from the NFC are 7-3 SU & 4-6 ATS. The last four teams to pull an upset in the Wildcard Round own a 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS record in the Divisional Round. As strange as it sounds, the home teams in the Divisional Round with 12 wins or less are upset less often than those with 13 wins or more. Those with 12 wins or less are 25-5 SU & 16-13-1 ATS since 93, compared to 22-12 SU & 15-18-1 ATS for 13+ win clubs. Eleven regular season wins seems to be the magic number for success by road teams in the Divisional Round. They are 14-13 SU & 17-10 ATS since 93. Those teams that won 10 or less games in the regular season but won their wildcard game are just 3-34 SU & 14-21-2 ATS in that same span. The more extreme the posted total, the better the chance of the Divisional Round playoff game going OVER the total. In games with totals of 37 or less, the OVER is 11-5. In games with totals 49 or higher, the OVER is 7-3-1. The secret to the NFC road underdog upset has been defense. In fact, in the last seven NFC Wildcard Playoff games where road teams pulled upsets, the total result has been UNDER, and the home team has averaged just 10.7 PPG. In terms of scoring, 27 points is the magic number for home team success in the divisional playoffs. In games where they score 27 or more, they are 29-5 SU & 26-8 ATS (76.5%) since 93. In games where home teams dont reach 27 points, they are a flip-of-the-coin 15-15 SU but an awful 5-23-2 ATS (17.9%)! For the road team in the Divisional Round, success hinges on the modest 18-point mark. Those scoring 18 or more are 14-13 SU & 21-6 ATS, those producing 17 or less are 3-34 SU & 10-25-2 ATS Like the Wildcard Round, the home team essentially dictates the total result. In past Divisional Round games where the hosts scored 23 or more points, the OVER is 27-9-1 since 93. In games where they fail to reach 23 points, the UNDER is 22-5. NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis For those of you who may have missed last weeks Wildcard Article, I introduced some reasons as to why statistics are an important piece to the puzzle that is NFL playoff handicapping. But which stats matter the most to playoff success? To help answer this question, Ive taken the results of past postseason games, all rounds, and cross-referenced them against the statistics of the teams playing going into that game. The statistical categories considered were some of the most common found at places like StatFox.com and other websites covering the NFL. Here is a list of the categories I studied: Won-Lost Records Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game Scoring Differential Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Attempt Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Game Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play Turnover Differential Here are the records from that article, updated to include the 09 Wildcard games Trends of Teams from Stats Recorded during a Playoff Game In looking at the stats that teams generate in postseason games and their relationship to winning or losing, Ive decided to stick with the longer range study, since 93. I firmly believe that the recipe of how teams win hasnt changed. They still need to make big plays through the air, win the turnover battle, and put the game away by running the football. Both theoretically and statistically, these three factors have proven most vital to winning playoff games. Take a look. Turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 119-24-3 ATS (83.2%). Strangely, three teams last year turned the ball over fewer times and lost ATS. Teams that rush for more yards in a playoff game are 127-40 ATS (76.0%). The team that is ahead typically will run the ball more, but still it is important to know which team can better control the line of scrimmage. Keep in mind though, that the record of this trend last January was just 6-5 ATS. Teams that average more yards per pass attempt, or those that create more big plays through the air, have compiled a mark of 118-49 ATS (70.7%) in playoff games. Big plays via the passing game give teams leads, which in turn allow them to run the ball more and avoid turnovers. When you combine the factors and find teams that have edges in all three key statistical aspects, the records go to 76-2 SU & 68-7-1 ATS (90.6%). In fact, home teams that have enjoyed edges in all three have a perfect record of 54-0 SU since 1993 in the playoffs! New England was the one home winner to do it last January vs. Jacksonville, but ironically, the Patriots failed to cover a lofty 13-1/2-point spread. With this recipe in hand, forecasting the games is a snap using the FoxSheets Game Estimator. StatFox employs back tested methods to project points, rushing yards and average, passing yards and average, total yards and yards per play, as well as turnovers, everything you need to fit the winners into the angles above. Statistical Angles of Teams Heading into a Playoff Game Taking the statistical categories I listed above and comparing the figures for the teams heading into their playoff games, I was able to come up with 33 different playoff betting systems that produced either better than 55% or worse than 45% results. If you consider that these are just pure raw statistics that are available to the average Joe bettor in the newspaper, this is a pretty extensive list. Be sure to jot down some of the teams that qualify in this years playoff games and take advantage. Won-lost Record Road teams with an even or better record than host are 12-11 ATS (55%) Record in 09: 1-2 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Scoring Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-20 ATS (41.1%) Record in 09: 2-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST NY Giants Road teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are 9-5 ATS (64.3%) Record in 09: 1-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: San Diego, Arizona, Philadelphia Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 21-16 ATS (56.8%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Pittsburgh, Tennessee Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 18-11 ATS (62.1%) Record in 09: 1-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%) Record in 09: 1-2 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Home teams outscoring opponents by more than 11.5 PPG on the season are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS (10%). Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Road teams outscoring opponents by more than 11.5 PPG on the season are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS (0%). Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Rushing Stats Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season are 46-40 ATS (53.5%). Record in 09: 1-3 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Tennessee, San Diego, Carolina, NY Giants Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 25-18 ATS (58.1%) Record in 09: 1-2 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: San Diego Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) Record in 09: 1-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Pittsburgh Home teams that average 136 RYPG or more are just 7-13 ATS (35.0%) Record in 09: 0-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST Tennessee, AGAINST Carolina, AGAINST Tennessee Road teams that average 136 RYPG or more are 12-10 ATS (54.5%) Record in 09: 1-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 48-38 ATS (55.8%). Record in 09: 3-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Philadelphia Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 29-20 ATS (59.2%) Record in 09: 2-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia Home teams that allow more than 4.35 YPR on the season are 7-12 ATS (36.8%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST Carolina Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 24-11 ATS (68.6%) Record in 09: 2-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia Road teams that allow 4.15 YPR or more are just 11-19 ATS (36.7%) - Record in 09: 0-2 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Road teams that allow more than 125.0 RYPG are 9-6 ATS (60.0%) Record in 09: 0-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 23-14 ATS (62.2%) Record in 09: 2-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, Philadelphia Passing Stats Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 19-14 ATS (57.6%) Record in 09: 1-2 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, San Diego Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-16 ATS (36.0%) Record in 09: 2-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST Carolina Road teams that gain 6.10 PYA or less on the season are 12-6 ATS (66.7%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 20-15 ATS (57.1%) Record in 09: 1-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: San Diego, Arizona, Philadelphia Teams that allow fewer passing yards per attempt on the season are 39-47 ATS (45.3%). Record in 09: 2-2 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST Baltimore, AGAINST Philadelphia Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 10-16 ATS (38.5%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST Pittsburgh Yards Per Play Stats Home teams that gain less than 5.1 yards per play on offense are just 3-8 ATS (27.3%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Home teams that gain 6.15 or more yards per play on offense are also just 3-8 ATS (27.3%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 15-5 ATS (75.0%) Record in 09: 2-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, Philadelphia Home teams that outgain their opponents by 0.25 or less yards per play (differential) on the season are 6-15 ATS (28.6%) Record in 09: 0-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards per play are just 1-9 ATS (10%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: AGAINST Pittsburgh Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 12-6 ATS (66.7%) Record in 09: 2-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: Baltimore, San Diego, Arizona, Philadelphia Turnover Stats Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%) Record in 09: 0-0 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None Statistical Combination Angles Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing are 26-21 ATS (55.3%) Record in 09: 1-3 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: San Diego, Carolina, NY Giants Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing and yield fewer rushing yards per game are 11-6 ATS (64.7%) Record in 09: 1-1 ATS - Qualifiers for 09 DIV: None
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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." |
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Thus far home teams are taking on the chin, despite the raucous crowd support these teams enjoy. Homers are 3-5 SU and against the spread, having been placed in the role of favorites a rare five times in eight games. (Fewest in eight years) As favorites, these home teams are 2-3 ATS. Though weather was more a factor for the division games, the Under has been a solid 6-2 to this point, tying the most in three years, when we also had a sixth seed (Pittsburgh) in the conference finals. In the last five years of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Under is 25-15.
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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." |
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63-0-2 ATS trend for Conference Championship games
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Since 1970, in Conference Championship games where the line is less than 10 points, the winning team is a perfect 63-0-2 against the spread. So based on this trend for Sunday's games, if you like the favorite don't worry about giving the points, and don't play the ML. But if you like the dog, you should play the ML instead of taking the points.
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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." |
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"defensive hog index". The better "Defensive hog" went 4-0 this week and 10-1 last year apparently
DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX UPDATE Data is current through Week 17. * Indicates playoff teams. Defensive Hog Index (through Week 17) Team YPA rank NPP% rank 3down% rank AVG 1 Steelers* 3.29 1 12.2 1 31.4 1 1.0 2 Eagles* 3.51 4 11.0 3 32.2 2 3.0 3 Ravens* 3.56 5 10.7 5 33.5 3 4.3 4 Vikings* 3.31 2 9.9 8 33.5 4 4.7 5 Titans* 3.73 7 10.3 6 35.0 6 6.3 6t Cowboys 4.23 19 11.8 2 35.6 8 9.7 6t Bears 3.42 3 7.7 21 34.9 5 9.7 8 Jets 3.73 6 9.0 12 38.6 15 11.0 9t Giants* 3.97 12 11.0 4 40.7 21 12.3 9t Dolphins* 4.17 18 9.7 9 37.8 10 12.3 11 Buccaneers 4.31 22 10.1 7 37.9 11 13.3 12 Redskins 3.83 9 6.9 26 35.6 7 14.0 13 49ers 3.78 8 7.1 25 37.9 12 15.0 14 Packers 4.6 26 9.0 11 38.1 14 17.0 15 Jaguars 3.99 13 8.5 17 41.0 22 17.3 16 Patriots 4.15 15 8.9 13 44.4 26 18.0 17t Cardinals* 3.96 11 8.0 19 44.4 28 19.3 17t Bills 4.29 21 6.6 28 36.1 9 19.3 19t Saints 4.24 20 7.8 20 39.8 19 19.7 19t Panthers* 4.43 23 8.2 18 39.7 18 19.7 21 Rams 4.94 29 8.8 14 39.6 17 20.0 22 Chargers* 4.02 14 6.8 27 40.6 20 20.3 23t Texans 4.47 24 7.5 23 39.4 16 21.0 23t Falcons* 4.92 28 7.5 22 38.0 13 21.0 25 Colts* 4.17 17 8.8 15 47.4 31t 21.0 26 Raiders 4.71 27 9.5 10 44.4 27 21.3 27 Bengals 3.91 10 5.5 31 42.7 24 21.7 28 Seahawks 4.16 16 6.5 29 42.3 23 22.7 29 Browns 4.49 25 8.6 16 45.9 30 23.7 30 Lions 5.14 32 7.2 24 45.7 29 28.3 31 Broncos 4.98 30 6.1 30 44.1 25 28.3 32 Chiefs 5.0 31 4.3 32 47.4 31t 31.3
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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." |
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NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES 1970 - 08
Season Date Result 1970 Jan. 3, 1971 Dallas 17, San Francisco 10 1971 Jan. 2, 1972 Dallas 14, San Francisco 3 1972 Dec. 31, 1972 Washington 26, Dallas 3 1973 Dec. 30, 1973 Minnesota 27, Dallas 10 1974 Dec. 29, 1974 Minnesota 14, Los Angeles 10 1975 Jan. 4, 1976 Dallas 37, Los Angeles 7 1976 Dec. 26, 1976 Minnesota 24, Los Angeles 13 1977 Jan. 1, 1978 Dallas 23, Minnesota 6 1978 Jan. 7, 1979 Dallas 28, Los Angeles 0 1979 Jan. 6, 1980 Los Angeles 9, Tampa Bay 0 1980 Jan. 11, 1981 Philadelphia 20, Dallas 7 1981 Jan. 10, 1982 San Francisco 28, Dallas 27 1982 Jan. 22, 1983 Washington 31, Dallas 17 1983 Jan. 8, 1984 Washington 24, San Francisco 23 1984 Jan. 6, 1984 San Francisco 23, Chicago 0 1985 Jan. 12, 1986 Chicago 24, Los Angeles 0 1986 Jan. 11, 1987 New York 17, Washington 0 1987 Jan. 17, 1988 Washington 17, Minnesota 10 1988 Jan. 8, 1989 San Francisco 28, Chicago 3 1989 Jan. 14, 1990 San Francisco 30, Los Angeles 3 1990 Jan. 20, 1991 New York 15, San Francisco 13 1991 Jan. 12, 1992 Washington 41, Detroit 10 1992 Jan. 17, 1993 Dallas 30, San Francisco 20 1993 Jan. 23, 1994 Dallas 38, San Francisco 21 1994 Jan. 15,1995 San Francisco 38, Dallas 28 1995 Jan. 14, 1996 Dallas 38, Green Bay 27 1996 Jan. 12, 1997 Green Bay 30, Carolina 13 1997 Jan. 11, 1998 Green Bay 23, San Francisco 10 1998 Jan. 17, 1999 Atlanta 30, Minnesota 27 * 1999 Jan. 23, 2000 St. Louis 11, Tampa Bay 6 2000 Jan. 14, 2001 New York 41, Minnesota 0 2001 Jan. 27, 2002 St. Louis 29, Philadelphia 24 2002 Jan. 19, 2003 Tampa Bay 27, Philadelphia 10 2003 Jan. 18, 2004 Carolina 14, Philadelphia 3 2004 Jan. 23, 2005 Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 10 2005 Jan. 22, 2006 Seattle 34, Carolina 14 2006 Jan. 21, 2007 Chicago 39, New Orleans 14 2007 Jan. 20, 2008 New York 23, Green Bay 20 * 2008 Jan. 18, 2009 Philadelphia at Arizona AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES 1970 - 2007 Season Date Result 1970 Jan. 3, 1971 Baltimore 27, Oakland 17 1971 Jan. 2, 1972 Miami 21, Baltimore 0 1972 Dec. 31, 1972 Miami 21, Pittsburgh 17 1973 Dec. 30, 1973 Miami 27, Oakland 10 1974 Dec. 29, 1974 Pittsburgh 24, Oakland 17 1975 Jan. 4, 1976 Pittsburgh 16, Oakland 10 1976 Dec. 26, 1976 Oakland 24, Pittsburgh 7 1977 Jan. 1, 1978 Denver 20, Oakland 17 1978 Jan. 7, 1979 Pittsburgh 34, Houston 5 1979 Jan. 6, 1980 Pittsburgh 27, Houston 13 1980 Jan. 11, 1981 Oakland 34, San Diego 27 1981 Jan. 10, 1982 Cincinnati 27, San Diego 7 1982 Jan. 23, 1983 Miami 14, N.Y. Jets 0 1983 Jan. 8, 1984 L.A. Raiders 30, Seattle 14 1984 Jan. 6, 1985 Miami 45, Pittsburgh 28 1985 Jan. 12, 1986 New England 31, Miami 14 1986 Jan. 11, 1987 Denver 23, Cleveland 20 (OT) 1987 Jan. 17, 1988 Denver 38, Cleveland 33 1988 Jan. 8, 1989 Cincinnati 21, Buffalo 10 1989 Jan. 14, 1990 Denver 37, Cleveland 21 1990 Jan. 20, 1991 Buffalo 51, L.A. Raiders 3 1991 Jan. 12, 1992 Buffalo 10, Denver 7 1992 Jan. 17, 1993 Buffalo 29, Miami 10 1993 Jan. 23, 1994 Buffalo 30, Kansas City 13 1994 Jan. 15, 1995 San Diego 17, Pittsburgh 13 1995 Jan. 14, 1996 Pittsburgh 20, Indianapolis 16 1996 Jan. 12, 1997 New England 20, Jacksonville 6 1997 Jan. 11, 1998 Denver 24, Pittsburgh 21 1998 Jan. 17, 1999 Denver 23, N.Y. Jets 10 1999 Jan. 23, 2000 Tennessee 33, Jacksonville 14 2000 Jan. 14, 2001 Baltimore 16, Oakland 3 2001 Jan. 27, 2002 New England 24, Pittsburgh 17 2002 Jan. 19, 2003 Oakland 41, Tennessee 24 2003 Jan. 18, 2004 New England 24, Indianapolis 14 2004 Jan. 23, 2005 New England 41, Pittsburgh 27 2005 Jan. 22, 2006 Pittsburgh 34, Denver 17 2006 Jan. 21, 2007 Indianapolis 38, New England 34 2007 Jan. 20, 2008 New England 21, San Diego 12 2007 Jan. 18, 2009 Baltimore at Pittsburgh
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