Kroyrunner's Week 1 NFL Thread

Only two nights until football and I feel like a child before Christmas. Although it's only my third season of betting football, the highs and lows I've experienced my first two have me confident that I've got a great year ahead of me. Once my system kicks off in Week 8, well let's just say my expectations are through the roof. Once I have my system running I will also be posting second half plays, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm better known for those at the end of the year! I'm steering clear of betting Thursday night's game, although I have a slight lean towards Steelers -6. I just don't see enough value to consider it a worthwhile investment though. I'm going to take a couple more days to sort out the best plays for the weekend, good luck to any of you who decide to wager Thursday Night! Let's make some money this season!

First play: 49ers +6.5

Week 1 Plays:

* San Francisco 49ers +6

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

* Atlanta Falcons -4

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

* Arizona/SF UNDER 46

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

* Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

* New Orleans Saints -13.5

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

* Saints/Lions OVER 48

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

3-0 so far with SF/ARI unfolding like I'd hoped so far... could be a very good weekend!

[akatdrake]

Good work so far bud!

Originally Posted by akatdrake

Good work so far bud!

thanks man! looks like a 5-0 start! hopefully the packers can make it a perfect weekend!

[akatdrake]

With ya on the Packers! Let's smash 'em!

[daft_picks]

Dude you're on fire!

Let's keep it rolling, I'm on the same side as you tonight. BOL

[rawhide]

Welcome "K"

Very nice start

6-0 to start the weekend, I'd like to thank the Packers for the lucky cover. I'm sure breaks like that will even out along the way, but nice to have one go for me. I may have a play for tomorrow, I haven't decided yet. I'll post it up tomorrow afternoon if i decide on something!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Nice!

[bluedevil12]

Great job congrats!

After some consideration I've decided I will not be making any plays on tonight's games. I have absolutely no read on the Oakland vs. San Diego game, so obviously that's one I'm staying away from. The other game, Patriots vs. Bills, is a much tougher one for me to avoid. Over 47 is a very tempting play for me, but I just don't feel like I know enough about these teams yet to go ahead and make it a play. In the end, I just have too many unanswered questions so I'm going to pack in the 6-0 week and get to it next weekend!