SUN NIGHT FB CHICAGO at GREEN BAY

[anjac]

SUN NIGHT FB CHICAGO at GREEN BAY

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Aaron Rodgers is becoming quite a field general, and the Packers overall seem to be a team on its way up. He threw for 4038 yds, 28 TDs, along with 13 INTs. The high side to this is that his comp % was 63.6( in the top 10 in the NFL). The low side to these numbers is that the GB offensive line allowed him to be sacked 34 times. The schedule is softer than one might think, while they only play 2 games with 2008 play-off teams in the first 11 games(that being Minn in week 4 on Monday night, and then Minn again in week 6). Rodgers has a couple of strong receivers in Gregg Jennings and Donald Driver, Ryan Grant runs the ball well, although his average was a bit low last season at 3.9 ypc, Mason Cosby has a good leg(3 for 6 over 50 yards). I like everything I see in this team except the defense, which was 26th in the NFL against the rush(allowing 4.6 ypc to the other guys) and 23.7 ppg.

These two teams mirror each other in many respects. Jay Cutler passed for 4526 yds for Denver last year, had 23 TDs and 18 INTs. He was only sacked 11 times, but Denver has a hell of a lot better offensive line than does Gr, Bay, but those particular stats has no meaning here. But Cutler needs someone to throw it to. Matt Forte mirrored Ryan Grant with his 3.9 ypc and had just 35 more total yard at 1238.

I think the difference in this game lies in the special teams and the receivers, where Gr Bay holds the better hand. Especially with Will Blackmon returning punts for an average of 11.1 yds and two TDs last year and Mason Cosby's strong leg. Gr. Bay only allowed 55.4 % pass completions to the oppinent, and Chicago allowed 61.6 %. Doesn't sound like much of a difference, but I assure uou it is.

I liked Gr Bay at the beginning line of -4, but I think that line has risen. So I will still wager on Gr Bay but maybe not as much. Some people say that when the line goes up it is a good sign that the favorite is going to win. I don't quite believe in that Chinese philosophy.

"Everybody plays the fool, sometimes....there's no exception to the rule."

[Details-Details]

My thoughts:

-Bears play well versus and at Green Bay ( Lovie's #1 Goal is always to "Beat Green Bay"

-Bears offense should move the ball against GB. Why? Cutler addition dramatically improves passing game (obvious) GB working out kink in new 3-4 scheme. Cutler is familiar with the 3-4 i.e. San Diego Chargers.

-Bears D, albeit bad last year should be much improved, YES i believe in the Rod Marinelli Effect!

- Bears hold special teams edge. Gould, Maynard, Hester, and KO and punt teams

- GB's passing game scares me, Bears defensive backfield is NOT GOOD

-I think this is a shootout that the Bears Win!

I AM A BEARS FAN, FYI, so use info at your own risk

30-23 BEARS WIN!


GL all