Week 2

[Stifler's Mom]

sides 6-7 (-3.90 units)
dog ml's 1-3 (-0.80 units)
total 7-10 (-4.70 units)

Bungles +9

There's no way the Bungles offense can be as inept as it was last week, is there? I gotta believe they will be able to do better today, and carrying over from last year, their defense looked pretty decent, all be it against Denver whose offense will probably not be very good this year.

The Pack on the other hand was the beneficiary of a huge turnover margin in their favor, yet still needed a late bomb TD to win vs CHI, so I'm not sold on them being a superbowl contender just yet, while it didn't take long for the world to get down on the Bungles again after betting them up as faves last week (myself included), but I'm not gonna jump off the bandwagon yet, as I still think they have a decent D and that Palmer will start putting up some yards and points, hopefully sooner rather than later, and i think they are undervalued here against a team coming off a tough fought divisional win.

Carolina +6.5 -105

The world is down on Carolina after last week's dismal performance against what is probably a pretty good Eagles team this year, and many probably remember back to their ugly home playoff loss to ARIZ last year too, in which Delhomme was also a turnover machine as well.

The fact that Carolina always plays solid fundamental football every year, and still has a big time playmaker with Steve Smith is being ignored because of those things.

Atlanta on the other hand, struggled most of the game last week to beat up on what I feel is going to be a pretty dismal Dolphins team this year, especially when on the road facing playoff contenders.

I think this line is just begging for people to lay "less than a td" for the Falcons, in a spot where I feel Carolina will bounce back, show up, and play solid football today in an important divisional game. I have a hard time seeing Delhomme throwing 3 or 4 picks AGAIN today...

Philly +2.5 -105

Let me get this straight.....Philly lost McNabb, the whole world is on the 'Aints who hung a gazillion points on the Lions last week, and the line isn't really moving (except at the square type books like SIA where I got this line). Philly is +1 @ Pinnacle, -1 @ Olympic and a pk +115 at 5Dimes, amongst others hanging in the same range, despite pretty much everyone being on the 'Aints?

Maybe it is because the 'Aints didn't do too much "marching in" on the road last year, at a pretty dismal 2-6 SU. Those wins were against KC and Detroit, if anyone is interested.

Maybe it's also because teams with a good offense/avg to poor defense are almost always poor on the road too. For an example, think back to the Colts teams prior to the year that they won the SB. When Manning was lighting it up but the D couldn't stop anyone. Solid at home, but not too many big road wins.

I'll admit that it's sort of a scary play to make, going against that 'Aints offense and backing a team with an unproven QB taking the snaps, but using history as an indicator, the 'Aints are gonna have to show more than beating the Lions at home before I will back them as a road fave, especially against a good Eagles team who is fully capable of beating anyone.

Detroit +10

Last season, MIN beat Detroit by 2 at home (12-10) and by 4 at Detroit (20-16), while pretty much everyone else on the planet beat Detroit by double digits. You would think that MIN/Peterson should (of all teams) be able to run all over that porous Lions defense (since just about everyone else did), but apparently that's not the case. Maybe something about the rivalry brings out a good effort from a ****ty Lions team, I guess? Or maybe it was all just Tavares Jackson's or Gus Freroote's fault, or whoever MIN was playing at QB then....and Favre will make it all better? I don't know, but I'll stick with that trend today, as I just think this is too many points against a hungry Lions team looking to win for the first time in ages.

Tennessee -7

I seem to be in the minority here at Predictem (although not with the public who seems to be backing Tennessee pretty strongly), but using pick the winner, I come up with Tennessee in this game.

Houston disappoints every season after high expectations from publications and experts, and not surprisingly, they got off to the same type of start this year, getting embarrassed at home last week.

Tennessee had extra time to prepare for this contest, and after the disappointing loss @ PIT, they should be good and ready to pick up their first win of the season here in their home opener. I think they will have a good plan in place today to stop the run of Houston, not turn the ball over, playing solid special teams, and controlling the clock/field position with their offense.

I'm all for backing teams who looked bad the week prior because it often creates line value, and maybe it will burn me here not doing so, but I don't really see Houston regrouping enough to stroll into Tennessee and take the SU win here, so I'm sticking with my pick the winner system and taking the Titans, as i could see HOU making some critical mistakes with the ball costing them this win/cover, while i don't think that is as likely to happen to the Titans.

KC Chiefs -3 +100

OAK looked pretty good Monday night, but I think that was in part to the fact that they were at home, and also because SD probably isn't as good as most everyone thinks.

KC on the other hand went to Baltimore, who I think is a serious contender, and put up one hell of a fight, surprisingly, and that impressed me enough to lay the minimal -3 here against a Raiders team that is improved, but will probably still make a bunch of mistakes as long as Russell is at QB.

On a side note, I never thought i'd see the day anytime soon where there were 75-80% on OAKLAND, lol.

New England -3.5 -105

Dirty Sanchez got it done last week, but historically Bellichick eats rookie/inexperienced QB's for breakfast, lunch and dinner, and despite their D looking porous last week at times vs BUF, I think NE will have a plan in place here to slow the Jets.

Brady has a game under his belt now and should be more confident in his knee and in his reads, as he looked shaky as hell for much of the game vs Buffalo, but did come on strong at the end.

As much as I hate them, I think NE will steamroll the Jets here, as despite their possible deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball, cause I can see the hoodie coming up with enough defensive schemes to slow the run of the NJY and then confuse Sanchez when he has to throw, causing possible turnovers, or at at least good field position for the offense, who normally doesn't need it anyway.

Maybe I'm a fool, but given the rookie QB thing alone, getting NE at pick the winner here looks like a gift....

Buffalo -4.5

Maybe I'm being a homer, but I see a strong effort from a disappointed Bills team here today, not a let down because of blowing a game they should have had at NE. I was high on the Bills to start the preseason as a playoff contender, and despite them then blowing in preseason and making me feel like I was dead wrong, they showed me why on Monday night vs NE. Maybe TO DOES make that much of a difference on the offense?

In any case, TB is a team whom any decent team should be able to beat at home, and I think the Bills will get it going early and often here in the 1st half with their ton of playmakers on offense, and the D should be enough to slow what is by most indications a dismal TB offense led by a far over the hill QB, so I'm using pick the winner again here, despite the fact that I think the -4.5 looks like a bit much.

If the Bills revert back to that team who was doing nothing offensively in preseason, or if I get beat by Byron Leftwich, then I guess so be it.

Chicago +3.5

Free hook at SIA here, if anyone is interested...

PIT defense is a completely different unit without Troy, and they cannot run the ball for ****, especially in short yardage. I think that might bite them today.

Same can be said for the Bears D without Urlacher, but despite a ton of turnovers and losing Urlacher part way thru the game Monday night, Chicago keep competing at GB and almost won. Normally a team with that many turnovers gets blown completely out.

Something tells me that Cutler won't repeat that poor performance today, and i also think one of the main things here is that PIT won't be able to run the ball (again).

The superbowl champs are getting their due respect here, but imo this is the wrong fave, and CHI should win SU.

Raisins +3 (-125)

I think SD is overrated again this year and this week because they made a run to make the playoffs last year after a horrible start, and now beat the rough Raiders last week, and due to those reasons and home field advantage, we get an incorrect fave here.

Baltimore's D has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in seasons now, and with LT out, I somehow don't see Sproles as a feature back being the guy to break that streak. Rivers is a solid QB, but normally that's with a good run game to compliment him, and I just don't think he's gonna carry SD to a win today if they are unable to establish a solid run game.

Big games on the road are nothing new to a veteran Baltimore team (even if Flacco is still young, he's been there) and I certainly don't think they will be shaken by having to go to SD and play an overhyped SD team.

If it's a close game, I like the Raisins chances of making the big play late than I do those of a beaten up SD team.

2 units each

Eagles ml +115
Carolina ml +220
Bears ml +140

1 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

To clarify and be accurate, I did the NO/PHI write up over an hour ago, and now i do see the line is moving up to the 2.5 range at most places.

Doesn't change how I feel about the game though

[BUNK MORELAND]

I think they are itching to get back on the field and get a win .. put that debacle from last week behind them !!!!

No Antonio Bryant today for Tampa !!!

That's BIG !

Good Luck Stif

[GMoney]

GL Stiff

I like your card. I wanted to jump on the iggles and bills too but I'm trying to narrow down my plays.

I'm on the Jets because I love their Defense and think NE is too one dimensional. Going against a lot of trends there but I think they do it at home today...

Get money.

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by GMoney

GL Stiff

I like your card. I wanted to jump on the iggles and bills too but I'm trying to narrow down my plays.

I'm on the Jets because I love their Defense and think NE is too one dimensional. Going against a lot of trends there but I think they do it at home today...

Get money.

Thanks, and you may be right. The line movement would indicate sharper money coming in on the Jets. I just am not sold on a Dirty Sanchez led offense being able to beat a Bellichick defense yet, even if it's not one of his best ever units, and I think they will be able to force him into turnovers at some point.

Bunk - yea, I feel the same way. Hopefully we're right. GL to you as well

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL 4-6 and -4.10 units, and it serves me right for backing the TITANS and PATRIOTS, and not going against the horrible BROWNS on the road at such a low line. With a futile running game, pressure in Brady's face all day and a questionable defense, it looks like the PATRIOTS might be in for a very mediocre season.

At least the 3 late games all came in after that nasty 1-6 start and the dog ml's as well....and wtf was up with the CHIEFS? Last I saw they had outgained the Raiderettes by like 300 yards. Don't know if that number got skewed by the final Raiderette drive to win or not, but wow.

And the Raisins defense about blew today, giving up 400+ passing yds to SD. At least they got the stops when it counted.

After a shaky start last week with I believe 3 losses, it looks like pick the winner was 13-1 today, with the only loss being WASHINGTON, which didn't qualify anyway beings that it was over -7, so officially it was 11-0 on sides under +/-7 with CIN/GB, STL/WASH and DET/MIN not qualifying.

I will be interested to see the line for NEW ORLEANS/BUFFALO next week. I think that's a game BUFFALO can win SU, and I think they will be dogged by about +4, give or take a hook. I guess we'll see....

In any case:

SNF:

Dallas -3

2 units

I think DALLAS steps it up a notch tonight, and NYG's lack of experienced wide outs might show here tonight more so than last week. I was impressed with NYG's win over WASH last week, until WASH took a **** all over the field against the pathetic LAMBS today, now I'm not so sure.

Big opening night for the new stadium too, although that momentum can only really last a few plays, i guess....