***MNF Colts/Dolphins Discussion***

[GMoney]

Line:
Open: Colts -3.5
Currently: Anywhere between Colts -3 and -4. Find the right book
O/U 41

Lets aggregate thoughts here....Since we're all degenerates and looking for an angle on tonight's game. My thoughts:

-The Colts are an overvalued team. It's always scary going against Peyton and especially taking Chad's "noodle arm" (credit: Stifflers Mom) back, but some reasons why my gut is telling me Miami:

-Colts squeaked by Jacksonville at home in week 1. Their contests are hisorically close, but after watching JAX lay a turd at home on Sunday I'm not very impressed with their week 1 win.

-Public all over Indy. Wagerline has them as a 71% public favorite. We saw how well that worked out last Monday night.

-Bob Sanders is out...Sanders is great with run support from the defensive backfield, much like Polamalu for Pitt, and with Miami's running game this is not to be overlooked.

-Colts can not run the ball and Miami has a good rush D. As long as they keep giving the ball to Addai and not Brown I think their run game struggles.

-Colts pass protection is very good. Peyton's weapons limited vs. previous years with Harrison gone and Gonzalez out. I look for him to go to Clark or screen to Addai.

-If Miami holds on to the ball in week 1, they may very well win at Atlanta.

-I look for Miami to go to the Wildcat a lot, and if White can make good decisions and throw the ball decently, it could be a scary O. Can't be worse than McNoodle...

-If the weather acts up (30% chance of thunderstorms) I'd like to think Miami, especially with their run game, takes a huge homefield advantage.

And the "storyline' play:
-Last night it was new stadium=new win. That tanked. Tonight I think everyone is expecting Peyton to show up his little brother.

I can get Miami +3.5 -105 from my guy right now. I haven't placed a bet.

Lean towards UNDER 41 as Miami trys to control the clock and the run, and is successful at doing so. Look for a couple turnovers on each side too as Peyton might try to force some action at Wayne, and well the Dolphins are the Dolphins...

Let's put our heads together and find a winner

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Monday Night Manning against two rookie cornerbacks.

Freeney & Mathis against a questionable Miami O-Line (4 sacks and many hurries given up last week) and a slow-footed Pennington.

Rain.

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Monday Night Manning against two rookie cornerbacks.

Freeney & Mathis against a questionable Miami O-Line (4 sacks and many hurries given up last week) and a slow-footed Pennington.

Rain.

Is Will Allen out?

I look for the D to double Wayne and spy protect the obvious vulnerabilitiy over the middle with Clark. Can Garcon or Callie fill the Gonzalez void? I dont know...Tony Gonzalez had a nice game vs. this defense but Clark doesn't have that kind of size.

Freeney is very scary on the D-Line and could provide a ton of problems for the young Miami O-line. Great point

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by GMoney

Is Will Allen out?

I look for the D to double Wayne and spy protect the obvious vulnerabilitiy over the middle with Clark. Can Garcon or Callie fill the Gonzalez void? I dont know...Tony Gonzalez had a nice game vs. this defense but Clark doesn't have that kind of size.

Freeney is very scary on the D-Line and could provide a ton of problems for the young Miami O-line. Great point

I guess the 2 rookie CBs share one side, and Allen plays the other.

Not sure of my side yet, just read thos points somewhere else, and posted them...

GL!

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by GMoney

-If Miami holds on to the ball in week 1, they may very well win at Atlanta.

That's a pretty big if. If Indy didn't turn the ball over they would have won by 14+

First two Colts drives....


5+ minute drive starting on their own 20- 10 plays 76 yards resulting in an int

5+ minute drive strarting on their own 12- 12 plays 58 yards resulting in a fumble.


Could be that Peyton had to work some kinks out, who knows. What worries me about Miami is that they didn't even put up points until the last posession of the game. I do think there will be quite a bit of ball control at work, but with MNF games how can you be confident about an under? There have been like 100 straight overs on MNF lol. Leaning on the Colts to win....

[bookiekilla]

Originally Posted by GMoney

-If Miami holds on to the ball in week 1, they may very well win at Atlanta.

I was at that game last weekend, and if Matt Ryan doesn't over throw 2 passes that he usually always makes early in that game, that game would have been over in the 1st half... I know it has nothing to do with who wins this game, but that game last weekend in Atlanta wasn't as close as the score indicated...the Falcons O was not clicking early in that game..just didn't want anyone to make a decision about this game based on the final score in the Miami / Atlanta game last week...that game was not as close as the score indicated...

[bookiekilla]

with that being said.....I have a gut feeling that Miami is the play tonight....

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by bookiekilla

I was at that game last weekend, and if Matt Ryan doesn't over throw 2 passes that he usually always makes early in that game, that game would have been over in the 1st half... I know it has nothing to do with who wins this game, but that game last weekend in Atlanta wasn't as close as the score indicated...the Falcons O was not clicking early in that game..just didn't want anyone to make a decision about this game based on the final score in the Miami / Atlanta game last week...that game was not as close as the score indicated...

Flip side - ATL also was +4 in Turnovers but only came away with a 12 point victory.

Look, the Colts seem like the obvious play. I'm just trying to dig deep and figure out why the line is so low, and why Miami might in fact be the right side.

Miami/ATL stat line week 1:

1st Downs 16 19
Passing 1st downs 11 15
Rushing 1st downs 4 3
1st downs from Penalties 1 1
3rd down efficiency 4-11 6-15
4th down efficiency 1-1 0-0
Total Plays 56 65
Total Yards 259 281
Passing 163 213
Comp-Att 21-30 22-36
Yards per pass 5.4 5.9
Rushing 96 68
Rushing Attempts 22 27
Yards per rush 4.4 2.5
Red Zone (Made-Att) 1-2 1-4
Penalties 4-27 4-35
Turnovers 4 0
Fumbles lost 3 0
Interceptions thrown 1 0
Defensive / Special Teams TDs 0 0
Possession 29:07 30:53

Looks pretty even to me minus the turnovers. 4.4 yards per rush prety good, and the Colts are a smaller D that relies on Quickness. Any misdirection in the wildcat O could cause problems. Can they limit the turnovers? Good question, but 3 fumbles is not very likely to happen again.

Again. Why the fishy/low/looks too easy line? Perhaps these are some reasons. I dunno

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by bookiekilla

with that being said.....I have a gut feeling that Miami is the play tonight....

Me too. Trying to convince my brain which is currently giving my gut the stiffarm...

And the espn dot com has "peyton looking to feast" under a photo of manning on the front page. I mean, at this point its Miami or no play for me. Might have to wait until halftime

[bookiekilla]

I guess we'll agree to disagree on the Miami / Atl game...but watching that game, it didn't close at all...stats don't tell the full story of that game...BUT...this Miami game..I have no real reasoning or stats as to why I'm leaning towards Miami, but just have a gut feeling they win this game tonight...I've got +3 (+100) right now or +3.5 (-115) at a couple of my books...also seeing them at +2.5 and +2 for the 1st half, and thinking about maybe making a 1st half play and then coming back and for a 2nd half play...

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

There have been like 100 straight overs on MNF lol. Leaning on the Colts to win....

That has to be some kind of record

Seriously. Makes you think this o/u is a bit inflated...I see value in that under. Seems like 38 should be the number there.

[bookiekilla]

decided to go ahead and pull the trigger on the dolphins +3 (+100)....and made it a pretty big play too...hope my gut is right about this one..

[FlyersFan]

i have honestly spent the day looking at this game backwards and forwards and forwards and backwards. i really feel that whoever can come away with the advantage on the scoreboard is going to win this game tonight. i also feel that if the colts can somehow figure out a way to win this game by more than 4 or 5 points, they are going to most likely get the cover tonight. only thing holding me back from a colts play is that if the dolphins manage to hold the game close and make this like a 1 point final, i can't see the colts covering which worries me.

[GMoney]

Dammit FF. Did you get beat up a lot as a kid?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Dallas Clark....play #1...lol