***NFL Week 3 Impressions/Discussions***

[Underdog88]

I was thinking about that awesome thread started by Details-Details last week, and thought maybe we could just combine both threads. It's cool if Details wants to keep it seperate, but it could make it easier to contrast and campare. Some great new cappers on this site, the more the merrier!


Some good talk in last week's thread, but we really could have touched on more games. I'm going to try and at least throw a couple observations out. Hopefully you guys can get some other opinions out. Last week I made a couple big mistakes, such as playing the Eagles team over instead of the game over. And being stubborn and playing the Seahawks even after I was unsure about them. Great call to everyone that called SF- that was spot on. Onto this week


Random home team observations-

The Bills offense looks like it will produce this season, but there were major setbacks due to injuries. Losing Butler for the season really thins out the O-line. Though by all accounts John Scott will be ok taking over (Wood played alongside him quite a bit in preseason and thinks it will be an easy transition), another oline injury would be devastating. Potentially an even bigger loss is Schouman, though it seems like the injury isn't as bad as they initially thought. With him and Nelson banged up, they could be left without a legit offensive te. Fine is more of a blocker, and Schouman has quickly become Trent's favorite target. He is a huge part of the offense, I really wouldn't consider an over play unless he is a go. Edwards seems to be playing at a much higher level, remaining calm and going through his progressions well. Not taking anything away from him but it certainly helps when you have Fred Jackson ripping the defense apart. Fred has been nothing short of amazing, except for that idiotic fumble. Absolutely kills me that I didn't take him in fantasy when I had the chance (I grabbed Trent). WR play can only get better (two straight weeks of dropped passes), it's clear to me that the TO signing was a definite plus. My main gripe is that it seems as if the offense is only capable of playing two good quarters. They always seem to have a lull in their game, which simply won't get you wins vs top tier teams.

Defensively, I have plenty of concerns. McKelvin is banged up, which doen't bode well when you're playing that freak known as the Saints offense. Posluszny's injury decimated the lb core, which IMO is easily their worst skill position. The Bills lbs have been and will continue to get exposed by above average tight ends this season.

Winslow 7 catches 90 yds 1 td
Stevens 3 catches 24 yards 1 td
Watson 6 catches 77 yards 2 tds.

16 catches 191 yards and 4 tds allowed to tight ends in 2 games. Plain and simple we don't have the speed at lb to defend an isolated te. Therefore, when we are forced to play cover 2 vs the Saints, Shockey is going to be a major problem. With the Saints offense seemingly balanced now, they are a juggernaut.

[Daws1089]

Eagles had the same problem last week. That is, not having the speed to cover tight ends and the saints exploited it early, then backed off once they were able to attack other areas. Like you, I expect the Saints to go after the bills LBs too. Some may think the bills can hang with the Saints, but I would think it would end up something like last week. Bills hang early or for a couple quarters, but Saints end up wearing down the D. I will say though, that if Buffalo does not turn the ball over, they can hang with the Saints. Teams absolutely cannot turn the ball over against the saints offense. You just can't.


I like Minnesota -7. SF was able to wear down the injured seahawk defense and caught a break when hasselbeck went down which pretty much clinched that game for them. This week, that SF o-line will have their hands filled with the vikings d-line. Minny has one of the stoutest run defenses in the league so Gore will struggle. Plus tht dome is really loud. Despite these teams being pretty similar in the sense that they have great running backs and play good defense, I don't think Shaun Hill can make enough plays on the road to win this game. In the pick the winner situation, I really do like Minnesota.


I'll have more opinions later in the week.

[Underdog88]

Some really good games this week. Plays that jumped out....


Cardinals- Looking like it's going to open at around -1.5. I'm likely going to be on the Cards ML. Hightower's emergence as a legitimate rb makes the Cards a tough matchup for the Colts. Miami had the right idea pounding the run, and keeping Manning off the field, but they couldn't complete the big pass. The blueprint on how to beat the Colts has been set for 2+ years now, it just comes down to executing. Arizona will play ball control with the run, but they have the weapons to keep the Colts guessing. I expect a run heavy game, which makes me wary of playing the over. At the same time I'm done playing unders unless the stars align (such as the Rams/Skins and Seattle/SF last week). I need to have at least one weak offense and one solid defense to consider unders.


Vikings- I know I'm going to get heat on this one. SF is playing great defense, but I just think this is a bad matchup for them. Seattle could not stop the run last week, but the Vikings D-line should give Gore trouble. I still believe that the SF oline is shaky, and this is one team that could make you pay. You take the run away from SF and they are in serious trouble. It seems as if the book want SF action. Why give away a whole td to a team playing so well? Do you really want to bet against Peterson in Minny's home opener. One thing I've noticed is that Minnesota is a slow starting team. Once it's into the 4th quarter the Oline is pushing everyone off the ball and AP takes off. It may come back to bite them at some point, but it's something to look for. Maybe 1sth plays against Minny could be profitable this season. I certainly wouldn't lay chalk 1st with them.

Bears/Sesahawks o37- Set way too low. IMO this is the game Forte breaks out. If he starts rolling, Cutler will get the passing game going. Seahawks still have some weapons, but they are banged up. Maybe even Bears tt over.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

I will say though, that if Buffalo does not turn the ball over, they can hang with the Saints. Teams absolutely cannot turn the ball over against the saints offense. You just can't.

I like Minnesota -7. SF was able to wear down the injured seahawk defense and caught a break when hasselbeck went down which pretty much clinched that game for them. This week, that SF o-line will have their hands filled with the vikings d-line.

Another thing I forgot to mention is that the BIlls have benefitted from an int returned for a td 2 consecutive weeks. That Saints have been great at forcing turnovers to start the season. Something's gotta give.


Makes me feel better that we see the same thing in that Minny game. Just a bad matchup for SF.....

[Details-Details]

thanks for the shout out underdog!

More than happy to share a thread!

I had a nice week in pro foots but got killed in college (0-7 on fri & sat), so I'm goin to stick to the NFL this week and see how everything pans out. No harm in betting fewer games.

i agree this is a great thread and the more info the better

The game i am loving this week early is Chicago vs. Seattle.

Chicago opened as a one pt. fav and the line has since moved to Chi -2.5. I realize this is a spot for a bears let down, after a big home win vs. Super Bowl champs and now they have to travel west to face Seattle who has one of the best Home field advantages in all of football. But i think the bears get it done here.

The offense has shown signs of coming together, Cutler has found a new weapon in Johnny Knox, and the offense hasnt put it together for more than 2 quarters all year. They can carry some momentum into Seattle who is as banged up as any team in the league. I was listening to John Clyaton this morning and Seattle might have 11 opening day starters out this week against the bears. 11! thats just nuts. oh yeah, and one of those is QB Matt Hasselbeck who would be replaced by Seneca "betcha thought I was out of football" Wallace.

I see a double digit bears win here, the O gets goin, and the D shuts sown a lackluster Seattle squad.

Note: I am a BEARS fan, but still loving this spot. In addition, bears win this one, theyll have Detroit at home in week 4 and the chance to go into their bye week at 3-1. This is why I think no let down is in sight for this bears team.


i'll try to post some more thoughts later, and looking forward to hear what everyone has to say

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Vikings- I know I'm going to get heat on this one. SF is playing great defense, but I just think this is a bad matchup for them. Seattle could not stop the run last week, but the Vikings D-line should give Gore trouble. I still believe that the SF oline is shaky, and this is one team that could make you pay. You take the run away from SF and they are in serious trouble. It seems as if the book want SF action. Why give away a whole td to a team playing so well? Do you really want to bet against Peterson in Minny's home opener. One thing I've noticed is that Minnesota is a slow starting team. Once it's into the 4th quarter the Oline is pushing everyone off the ball and AP takes off. It may come back to bite them at some point, but it's something to look for. Maybe 1sth plays against Minny could be profitable this season. I certainly wouldn't lay chalk 1st with them.

Heat? Not from me. I was right on SF last week (and you were nails with JAX ) and I think this is a great analysis of the matchup vs. the Vikes. Other than Gore's two huge TD runs of 79 and 80 yards he only added 48 yards on 14 other carries. I don't think he'll be too successful vs. the Williams' men on the Viking D Line. Did you know Shaun Hill is 9-3 as a starter?!? Alarming stat, but he can't do it by himself. 7 is a big number, and with these 2 run first offenseses and pretty solid defenses I have to like that dirty little word - Under 40.5. I think this is one of those matchups where the 'stars align' as neither team stretches the field with a vertical passing game.

I really like Houston -3.5 at home vs. Jacksonville. Especially if Kevin Walter comes back healthy this Houston offense, in my opinion, is a top 5 offense in the league. They have possibly the best receiver in the game in AJ, a solid #2 in Walter (when healthy), a very good tight end in Owen Daniels, a versitile back in Slaton and a short yardage back in Brown. I like Houston and what I saw from them in Tennessee this weekend and I also think Jacksonville is Garbage. Warner tore apart that defense and Gerrard just isn't going to be the playmaking QB everyone thinks he can be. I am concerened with MJD's ability to run the ball as both Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson have run wild on this D - this needs to be considered and analyzed throughout the week.

I like the Saints and Cardinals as well this week for reasons already stated. This line looks to have opened around Arizona +2.5 but has moved to the cardinals being a favorite at many books. As was the case last week with SF/Seattle. This is a trend we should keep an eye on as it seems if a team opens as a dog and closes as a favorite they generally cover. Arizona showed me a lot last week and I think Indy's defense is still on the field in Miami....

I like Chicago as well, especially if Hasselbeck is out. Forsett is the best rb in that backfield and Julius Jones and Edgerin James are taking a lot of carries away from him. Seattle might need their own version of the wildcat, but the Bears run D will be up to that if they pull one out of their arse this week, but I don't think that's likely. The under being set so low is a red flag to me. Seattle might struggle to get two scores with Seneca taking the snaps.

I'll add a couple games to the list:

Why is Oakland a favorite at home vs. Denver? I get that this is a divisional game, but Denver has a very good D and, well, JaMarcus is garbage. That offense is one dimensional and Denver has played very good D and even went on the road to Cincy and held them to 7 points. I think the line being set at 2.5 is also begging for Oakland money. McDaniels can get enough offense out of Orton and company to get the road win - they'll likely only need 10 points...can see this one staying close through the first half and Denver taking control in the second.

I also like the Lions +6 vs. Washington. Washington has no business being a road favorite and I think Campbell is garbage. The Lions D will have to keep Portis in check and Stafford has Haynesworth and co. to deal with on that D, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Detroit get the W this week so 6 points looks pretty tempting.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree it's time to fade the Niners going on the road facing the Vikings. I had SF the first two weeks, but they were in good spots....facing the SB-losing team hangover trend, and the over-rated Hawks playing on the road after a big home win. Coming into what will be maybe the toughest place to play this year....they won't win....and hopefully no cover.

I'm with UD on Tennessee. It's their whole season this week, and find the 2-0 Jets coming off their biggest home win in years. We could have a letdown situation, and desperation situation all in one game.

Might be time for me to back the Lions. Tough opening schedule for them, playing maybe the league's 2 best teams after a winless season. Facing the league's best passer, and then the league's best runner in b2b opening weeks is insane too. The Skins could be ripe for the picking here. I'm not sure they're a .500 team, as the Giants loss flattered them on the scoreboard, and an almost loss at home against the Rams says alot. Lions plus the TD seems like value, and a line more based on last year, and two lopsided losses against contenders this year.

Bears ML will also be on my card. I don't have Seattle as a playoff team, and the Niners was probably the best play on the board last week. The Hawks are a banged up team already, and now have Hasselbeck with rib problems. This could be Forte's breakout game, as the Hawks run defence is suspect. That'll lead to some nice Cutler play action IMO, and an easy win for the Bears. I think Seattle's lines so far this year are more perception that Seattle "turns it around", and not based on the fact they are once again a non-playoff team.

Also looking at Houston. Last weeks road win was huge, and the first week home loss doesn't look so bad now does it? This is a good team, and only laying 3.5, at home (where they are looking to redeem themselves and put a better show on for their fans) against what is a division foe Jax team, that is weaker than past years...I expect the Texans to hold at home for the win, and hopefully cover. Run defence is a concern.

Also probably with UD on NO. Not sure how you can bet against the Saints. You either back them, or no play. That offense is insane, and this line is only below a TD because the Bills showed good against NE (who could be over-rated bigtime), and won big against one of the leagues worst in TB. NO is a different class, and there's no real reason to go against them getting less than a TD, unless it's backing a contender in a great spot.

GL ALL!

[Daws1089]

One game that is interesting to me is PITT/CIN. At +4 the Bengals look more enticing of a bet than pitt-4. Now this could be an overreaction to last week's great performance in GB, but Cincinatti has things together. Their defense is really good. Most probably can't name more than a guy or two on the D, but it is solid as any. THey really only gave up 17 to GB since one td was a INT returned for a td and ake away that fluke play to end the Broncos game and they hold them to single digits. So once again I think Pitt will have a heck of a time moving the ball offensively. Their OC just loves to throw the ball and their o-line is not built to run the ball anymore. Big ben can only get away with so many bad throws before they start to result in turnovers. He holds the ball way too long. Bengals offensive showed some life last week against a defense I rank pretty highly, so that is encouraging. Add in the divisional rivalry at home and I might have to side with the Bengals. If the steelers were going to get that bounce back win wouldn't this line be pitt -7?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

One game that is interesting to me is PITT/CIN. At +4 the Bengals look more enticing of a bet than pitt-4. Now this could be an overreaction to last week's great performance in GB, but Cincinatti has things together. Their defense is really good. Most probably can't name more than a guy or two on the D, but it is solid as any. THey really only gave up 17 to GB since one td was a INT returned for a td and ake away that fluke play to end the Broncos game and they hold them to single digits. So once again I think Pitt will have a heck of a time moving the ball offensively. Their OC just loves to throw the ball and their o-line is not built to run the ball anymore. Big ben can only get away with so many bad throws before they start to result in turnovers. He holds the ball way too long. Bengals offensive showed some life last week against a defense I rank pretty highly, so that is encouraging. Add in the divisional rivalry at home and I might have to side with the Bengals. If the steelers were going to get that bounce back win wouldn't this line be pitt -7?

I was looking at that Under.

Not playing the Steelers at this point laying that many road points against, yeah what might be a decent Bengals defence this year....but Pitt owns Palmer and the Bengals....not sure I wanna back them in this rivalry either. Leaning under.

[Billy The Kid]

patriots -4 - this is a line im interested in seeing move throughout the week. was surprised to see the patriots laying more than a field goal against the high powered atlanta offense. patriots defense played pretty well last week allowing only 53 yards of offense in the first half and stopping the run pretty well. they did however fail to put consistant pressure on sanchez and allowed him to really dictate the flow of the game in the second half. for the second straight week they allowed a QB to have a passer rating over 100 and while edwards and sanchez have looked solid in two starts to start the season, the patriots d didn't do to much to slow them down. I think the pats d struggles against an atlanta team that can beat you in so many ways and against matt ryan (first game in NE, sure to have alot of BC fans and family there) Im torn on how i feel about the pats offense. they were able to successfully run the ball agianst the jets with fred taylor (5.8 yds a carry on 8 carries) but for some reason resorted to throwing the ball on every down despite brady being constatnly hurried. I lean now towards the over (44) but then again was way off on the over lean last week. IMO the pats d struggles facing the best offense they have faced thus far ytd. If they load the box attempting to stop turner, gonzo will burn them. i think we see a better balanced attack from the patriots, a healthy welker won't hurt either. Not much of a trend follower, but i think the last time the brady/bellicheck lost 2 in a row was in the '06 season

lions +6 - stood out as well. lions have looked much improved and have hung around in the first half in both of there games thus far. washington on the other hand has shown very little to be considered a 6 point road fav. lions still desperate for a win, lean lions here. interesting to see 70% of the public on the lions as well

agree with thoughts on san fran and like the titans play ud.

[Daws1089]

Piera Jerry is out for the year which makes ATL's d-line extremely thin. He was their best DT, so that will be tough to overcome. Not sure his replacement can keep linemen off of mike peterson and co. at LB. I would think NE would try to exploit that and run the ball a bunch. Not sure on the total though. NE can be unpredictable on offense. With the injury to Jerry, we think they exploit the run, but NE may just come right out slinging.

[hodown]

Great posts guys. I'm counting 6 homedawgs on the slate, and I don't like any of them.

NYG -7 @ TB
Wash -6.5 @ Det
GB -6.5 @ STL
Chi -2.5 @ Sea
Pitt -4 @ Cinci
NO -5.5 @ Buf

All of them are pick the winner scenarios, and the top 3 teams are horrific. I broke my rule of not betting on sh*t teams last week by taking Det at +10 and through the first quarter and a half it looked like a great play. Then Det did what Det does. Wash definitely isn't a good team either, but there's probably better plays on the board imo. I gotta think 3 of the 6 cover, but which ones?

Houston, Minnesota (no more than 7), and Chicago seem to be the best plays on the board to me. Houston might be the best team in the AFC South and they are generally a very good home team. I think they put up a lot of points this week on Jax.

I think the Minny line is about right on, but if its pick the winner I'm picking Minnesota. Playing in the dome against a physical team will be alot more hostile than traveling to Arizona, and it's Minny's first homegame.

Being a Bears fan I'll usually fade at will, however, Hasselbeck being out is huge. Don't see a letdown here for the simple fact that Chicago was actually lucky to win that game. Offense still has something to prove up to this point

[hodown]

Chargers at -6 don't look too bad either. They hung every step of the way with perhaps the best team in the AFC. Miami DB's won't face any easier of a time against Rivers. And man does Miami's schedule look tough

[bluedevil12]

I really think DET has to win a home game at some point, WASH did not look great last week, there could be some value on DET this week.

I think MIN handles SF. Gore won't run wild against the Williams wall.

CHI really could kill SEA. SEA is not a very good team, and rather than fall flat I think CHI carries the momentum and plays well. This team could easily be 2-0 right now.

Also agree that HOU is a good play this week.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Potentially an even bigger loss is Schouman, though it seems like the injury isn't as bad as they initially thought. With him and Nelson banged up, they could be left without a legit offensive te. Fine is more of a blocker, and Schouman has quickly become Trent's favorite target.

Schouman placed on ir late yesterday...

Seems like I'm the only person in Buffalo that thinks this is a big deal though lol.