Maxx's Week 3 NFL Plays

[Maxx_Power]

Early games for now...

TEN ML (+115) @NYJ

KC @ PHI -7.5

ATL @ NE -4.5

NYG -6.5 @ TB

SF +7 @ MIN

WAS @ DET +6.5

JAX +3.5 @ HOU

[Maxx_Power]

All plays at -110 for 1 unit unless otherwise specified (forgot that in the original post)


CHI -2.5 (-115) @ SEA
So many variables here. In week 1 I went against CHI because I thought they had too many kinks to work out before I could back them on the road. Can that have changed much in 2 weeks? I'm not so sure, but I do like the fact that Lovie Smith is unlikely to yield complete control of the offense to Cutler, which means a steady diet of Matt Forte to the SEA defense. This pick is tenuous at best, but my first reaction to this line was... gotta be on Chicago, so I'm not going to talk myself out of it.

NO -6 @ BUF
I am 2 weeks late on the Saints. But this team reminds me of the 2005 Colts (team that went 13-0 before Dungy's son committed suicide - then lost to Steelers in playoffs). Unstoppable offense stakes team out to a big lead which forces teams to play catchup and hides a mediocre but opportunistic defense. The key to beating those teams is ball control, sustaining long drives on offense, and forcing long drives on defense. I'm not sure BUF is built to play that type of game.

DEN -2 @ OAK
I was unsure on this game until it hit me... the Broncos could win this game 3-0 in OT and still cover.... then I was sold. Plus I just trust DEN to do fewer stupid things and play much more under control... so really laying only 2 points I think is a gift in this game.

Finally, some thoughts on this IND @ ARZ game. The Colts are without Brackett and Hayden to thin out an already banged up and worn out defense. I don't know how you can back the Colts in this spot. But IND has a knack for just plugging guys in to fill the voids and they rarely miss a beat. I'm also curious to see if the ARZ OTs can hold up against Freeney and Mathis in the pass rush. Warner is a statue and a fumble machine... that's not a good combo against the Colts. I also think Manning is getting more comfortable with his newer targets (Garcon, Collie, Brown and TEs Santi and Tamme). ARZ will try to take Wayne and Clark out of the game, but if Manning doesn't force the issue to these two (which he tends to do) then he will likely find some other wide open options. So while I don't think you can back the Colts, just blindly taking the Cards in this spot is pretty risky IMO. There was a game a couple years ago where the Colts played at SD minus about 10 starters and no one gave them a chance... if not for a missed Vinatieri short FG late in that game, they would've won. This game has a similar feeling except ARZ is a much more favorable matchup to the Colts than SD ever has been.

[Maxx_Power]

Made up for a pretty horrific week 2 yesterday. I don't really know that anyone can feel good about backing either side tonight. In that situation, I'll take the points... especially this many points. So...

CAR +8.5 @ DAL

[bluedevil12]

Wow great week,

[Maxx_Power]

Thanks... The game tonight was pretty impossible to feel confident about no matter who you had... I seriously thought the most likely way to lose on CAR was they would have the ball at the end trying to score and Dehlhomme would throw a pick that gets returned and DAL ends up covering. When that happened I couldn't stop laughing. Oh well.. much easier to take when Sunday went well.

Here's to regaining some mo into week 4.....