**The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (11-13-1) +4.3 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (6-2-1) +7.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-11) -9.1 Units

Last week was a small set back after missing both 1 Unit picks on Monday Night. My analysis was correct on the game, but in the end turnovers prevailed and the Redskins failed to cover and the game went over the total. Today is an ugly card. When I look at my picks it makes me a little sick at my stomach. This has been a year of little parody in the NFL. I have three 2 Unit Picks and three 1 Unit Picks. My favorite pick is the 49ers, but nothing there to warrant any more than a 2 Unit Pick. The 49ers have averaged 4.07 YPR, while the Colts have allowed 4.27 YPR. Look for Gore to have a big day on the turf today. The Colts are banged up and Manning may be grasping for straws if Wayne is unable to play today. I have the game capped at Colts -6. The line is inflated, because the public loves to pound the Colts at home despite an inflated line. That being said the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home as a favorite of 10.5+ points. GL and enjoy todays picks!! I have a BIG PLAY on deck for Monday Night Football, so check back late today!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
49ers +13
Raiders +16.5
Panthers +10

*1 Unit Picks*
Broncos +4
Giants/Eagles Over 44
Panthers +10

[The Knuckleballer]

Yesterday (4-2) +4.8 Units
Overall (15-15-1) +9.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (9-2-1) +13.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (4-13) -10.3 Units

We picked up 4.8 units yesterday by hitting all three 2 Unit Picks. Tonight is another opportunity to pick up 2 more units with a live dog in New Orleans. People are overlooking this Atlanta team. Is their defense shaky? The answer to that question is YES! Does that stop me from taking them as an 11 point underdog against an undefeated Saints team? NO! My system has the Saints at -7 with a total of 53. The spread differential is minimal, but technical analysis of this game leads me to believe that the Falcons are worthy of a 2 Unit Pick tonight and may sneak away with a victory. This should be a fun game to watch, so sit back and enjoy. GL!!!!

**2 Unit Pick**
Falcons +11

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Week (5-2) +6.8 Units
Overall (16-15-1) +11.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (10-2-1) +15.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (4-13) -10.3 Units

The last couple of weeks have been great. I continue to struggle with my 1 Unit picks, but hitting 80% of my mulitple unit picks more than makes up for it. Today, I will go ahead and post my afternoon picks as well as my big Monday Night winner (due to possible line movement tomorrow). I look for the Panthers to keep it within the number today against the Saints. This line is inflated. I have the game capped at Saints -9. The Panthers have the #1 Pass defense, allowing just 160.6 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, the Saints have the #6 passing offense. Strength vs. Strength helps level the playing field in this divison rivalry. The Superdome should be rocking today, but that will not be enough to get the Saints a cover. Also, the Redskins should stay within the number against the Falcons today. I have this game capped at Falcons -5. The Redskins offense has struggled to put up points, but opposing offenses have struggled against the Redskins defense as well. They are allowing just 283 total yards per game and 17.6 points per game. I would not be suprised if the Redskins pulled off an upset in this spot. A Monday Night writeup will be coming soon. GL and enjoy the picks!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Broncos +3

**2 Unit Picks**
Redskins +9
Panthers +13

*1 Unit Picks*
Texans +9
49ers -4.5

[Oracle]

Love the Broncos this week Knuckles. Steelers never have been good in Denver and they are extremely beat up in their front seven. Good luck today

[sdyarnell]

where do you get your stats from?

[The Knuckleballer]

Yesterday (2-2) -.3 Units
Overall (18-17-1) +10.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-3-1) +15.2 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (5-14) -10.2 Units

Yesterday was a wash with us losing some juice. Tonight is for all the marbles this week. Either we pick up some units or give some back. I already posted this pick at Broncos +3 due to fear that the line might drop. I was right at some books, but some have held steady at +3. I have this game capped at Broncos -3. Two premier defenses square off tonight, both allowing under 300 total yards per game. In my opinion, the Broncos have the edge in several key defensive categories. The Broncos allow just 13.7 points per game, 3.37 yards per rush, and they allow opposing teams to convert just 33.3% of their third down attempts. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense allows 18.4 points per game, 3.79 yards per rush, and they allow teams to convert 43.3% of their third down attempts. The Broncos should be able to get pressure on Big Ben tonight, which could lead to some costly turnovers. Denver's offense is not amazing, but they are consistent, averaging 123.1 yards on the ground and 221.4 yards throught the air. This consistency and defensive edge should help the Broncos "upset" the Steelers tonight. I use the term upset lightly, becuase linemakers and the public continue to doubt McDaniels and this Broncos team. GL and enjoy the game!!

***3 Unit Pick***
Broncos +3

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Week (2-3) -3.6 Units
Overall (18-18-1) +7.5 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-1) +2.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-3-1) +15.2 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (5-14) -10.4 Units

Last week ended poorly w/ a tough 3 Unit Monday Night loss. This week, I have quite a few picks that fit my system. I also have my largest pick of the season. My first 4 star pick is the Eagles +1. I have the Eagles at -4 in this game. The Chargers defense struggles against the run allowing 4.15 YPR, while the Eagles excel on the ground averaging 4.75 YPR. Also, another key stat is that the Chargers struggle to get off the field on 3rd Down, allowing opponents to convert 43% on 3rd Down. That is the 5th worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles are the 6th best in the NFL at getting off the field on 3rd Down. The Eagles should win this game on the road tomorrow. GL and enjoy the games!!

****4 Unit Picks****
Eagles +1

***3 Unit Picks***
Chiefs +1
Seahawks +9

**2 Unit Picks**
Lions +16.5
Bills +9.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Falcons -1
Bengals +7
Saints -14

[FlyersFan]

Not real sure about PHI tomorrow....the Over IMO is the better play. You failed to mention that PHI is down some serious DB's for the game as their #3 and #4 corners are out indefinitely. They have 2 practice squad guys as their nickel and dime backs. Not what i would want going up against the league's 6th best pass offense and when your pass D with those guys was middle of the pack. If SDG decides to spread PHI out with mulitple receiver sets (which you never know as Norm Turners is not a genious) with Gates, Floyd, Turner, Jackson......no bueno for PHI IMO.

that is what i don't like about systems is they don't take into account things like that.

GL!...this weekend.....on your plays....

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Week (2-6) -10.3 Units
Overall (20-24-1) -2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-2) +2.4 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-5-1) +10.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (6-16) -11.6 Units

Last weekend was a terrible weekend. We lost units in college and pro football. Fortunately, in college and pro football combined we are up 20+ Units on the season. That is tough to match, and I wish everyone the best of luck going forward. GL and I will have this weeks picks posted ASAP!! Remember this is a marathon not a sprint. Also, begin looking for my NBA and College Basketball picks soon.

[LLXC]

Might be time to dump the 1 unit plays

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Week (2-6) -10.3 Units
Overall (20-24-1) -2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-2) +2.4 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-5-1) +10.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (6-16) -11.6 Units

This season has made it tough to get a rhythm in the NFL due to the lack of parody and huge spreads. These double digit spreads are unheard of in the NFL on a weekly basis. What is even stranger is that many of these spreads are warranted and extremely accurate. Now is the time to buckle down and get on a roll, so that we can finish strong and head into the playoffs with some momentum. Today, I have four 1 Unit Picks (proceed with caution!), one 2 Unit Pick, and one 3 Unit Pick. I have the Jets staying within the number against the Patriots today. The Jets defense is allowing just 281.6 yards per game and 17.6 points per game. The defense will be the reason that the Jets cover not Mark Sanchez. I have the Patriots outgaining the Jets by about 40 yards today, which should translate into a 3 point win for the Patriots. 23-20 Patriots is my predicted score. I may be back later with a Sunday Night pick, so stay tuned. GL and enjoy the picks!

***3 Unit Picks***
Jets +11

**2 Unit Picks**
Broncos +6.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Redskins +11
Bills +9
Falcons +7
Cardinals -9.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Week (3-3) -3.6 Units
Overall (23-27-1) -6.4 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-6-1) +8.6 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (9-17) -9.7 Units

The lack of parody this season is making it tough to get a rhythm going. I have two plays today that I feel very confident have a good chance of hitting. The Lions would be a two unit play if they didn 't have so many question marks as far as injuries. I have the Lions game capped at Packers -7. Also, I love the Broncos at home tonight. I have this game capped as a pickem, which means that I give the edge to the home team. The Broncos are on a 4 game losing streak, which believe it or not makes them even more appealing to me in this position. GL and Happy Thanksgiving!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Broncos +6.5

*1 Unit Pick*
Lions +12

(Happy Thanksgiving!!!)

[The Knuckleballer]

Thanksgiving (1-1) +.9 Units
Overall (24-28-1) -6.4 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (12-6-1) +10.6 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (9-18) -10.8 Units

Thanksgiving was good to us with a big win in the late game. Today, I have four daytime picks. In fact, I have my first 5 Unit Pick of the season today. I love the Cardinals today against the "revitalized" Titans. The Titans are gaining recognition for 4 wins against subpar opponents. Do they deserve to be favorites? I have this game capped at Cardinals -5. The Cardinals have a more efficient offense and a more effective defense. Their defense allows just 19.7 points per game. Look for Warner to pick apart this Titan secondary today and walk away with a win. GL and enjoy the football!!

*****5Unit Picks*****
Cardinals +2

***3 Unit Picks***
Redskins +10

**2 Unit Picks**
Chiefs +13.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Colts -3

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (26-30-1) -10.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (12-7-1) +8.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (10-18) -9.8 Units

First, I just want to say that Vince Young had one heck of a drive to win the game yesterday. Those losses sting, but there is nothing you can do about big players making big plays in big situations. We will bounce back and tonight is the time and place to get started. The public is pounding the over in this game. Not me!! I have this total capped at 50.5, and I truly believe that these defenses are being overlooked in this matchup. Neither team averages giving up more than 21 points per game. My predicted score is Saints 27 - Patriots 24. GL and enjoy this fabulous Monday Night matchup!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Patriots/Saints Under 57

(PUNT! PUNT! PUNT!)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (27-30-1) -8.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (13-7-1) +10.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (10-18) -9.8 Units

We finished strong last week with a big win on Monday Night. This week, I have three 2 Unit Picks and one 1 Unit Pick. I love the Seahawks in the late afternoon game against the 49ers. Per my system, I have this game capped at Seahawks -2. Home field advantage should account for approximately 3 points in this matchup. The 49ers have struggled on the road going 1-4, while the Seahawks are 3-2 at home. Enjoy the football today and GL!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Colts -6.5
Raiders +14.5
Seahawks +1

*1 Unit Picks*
Vikings -3.5