**The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

I hope everyone is having a great day. I mentioned several days ago that I would be posting how I track my success and why I do it in that manner. I use the same method used by Dr. Bob, because I respect his long term track record of success and to be quite honest it is the only way that makes sense. In my opinion, a "Total Unit Based Record" must be used to compute your overall winning %. This means that higher unit picks are weighted more heavily than lower unit picks. For example, a 1 Unit win obviously counts as 1 win, while a 3 Unit win counts as 3 wins. Likewise, a 1 Unit loss counts as 1 loss, while a 3 Unit loss counts as 3 losses. This risk adjusted winning percentage is the only way to truly track a handicappers success. Below is my updated record, which includes my "Total Unit Based Record" and risk adjusted winning %. GL and I hope you enjoyed yesterday's winners!!

Overall (30-31-1) -2.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (10-19) -10.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (54-51-2) -2.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % 50.47%

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (30-31-1) -2.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (10-19) -10.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (54-51-2) -2.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % 50.47%

Tonight, I only have one pick. I like the Over in tonight's matchup. I have this total capped at 40. The Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these two team. My projected score is Steelers 24-Browns 16. GL and enjoy the game!!

*1 Unit Pick*
Steelers/Browns Over 34

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (30-32-1) -3.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (10-20) -12 Units

Total Unit Based Record (54-52-2) -3.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.00%)

Below are my picks. I don't have time for a write up today, but GL and enjoy the football today!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Broncos +7

**2 Unit Picks**
Falcons +10
Seahawks +7
Panthers +13
Jets/Bucs Over 36.5
Rams +13

*1 Unit Picks*
Jets -3.5
Chargers +3.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (34-36-1) -7.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (18-10-1) +13.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (12-20) -10 Units

Total Unit Based Record (60-61-2) -7.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.78%)

This has been a tough NFL season thus far. Fortunately, we are up in College Football and NBA, and we still have time to get out of the red in the NFL. Tonight, I have one 1 Unit Pick. I like the Colts at -3 tonight, despite the uncertainty as to how long the starters will play in this matchup. My gut says that Peyton plays at least 3 quarters and it may be a good sign if they are able to pull him going into the 4th quarter. I have this game capped at -7, and I am confident that the Colts will remain unbeaten. GL and enjoy the football!! Check out my NBA thread as well.

*1 Unit Picks*
Colts -3

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (35-36-1) -6.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (18-10-1) +13.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (13-20) -9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (61-61-2) -6.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.19%)

By the most narrow of margins, we picked up a unit on Thursday with a Colts cover in a game with 10 lead changes. Tonight, I have a contrarian play that fits the system perfectly. My system has this game capped at Saints -5.5. The Cowboys should see some success on the ground tonight, which should keep this game under a TD difference. Yes, the Saints are at home, but they are not unbeatable. I have a gut feeling that the Cowboys sneak away with an upset tonight. GL and enjoy the game!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Cowboys +9

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (36-36-1) -4.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (19-10-1) +15.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (13-20) -9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (63-61-2) -4.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.00%)

I have seven picks on the card today. Despite the injuries, I really like the Lions to cover the spread today against the Cardinals. This line is inflated. I have the game capped at Cardinals -8.5. Food for thought, the home team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Today should be a great day to watch some football. In my opinion, nothing beats watching a game that is being played in inclement weather. GL and enjoy the action!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Lions +14
Falcons/Jets Over 35
Bengals +7
49ers +9

*1 Unit Picks*
Falcons +7
Raiders +14
Packers +1

[The Knuckleballer]

No time to update my record or do a write up, but I do have a 3 Unit Pick for tonight. One quick note, if you can't get this line at +3 or better make it a 2 Unit Picks. I will be back later to update the record. GL and enjoy the game!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Redskins '+3

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (40-39-2) -6.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (21-12-1) +15.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (15-20-1) -7.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (69-68-3) -6.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.29%)

I hope everyone is having a great Christmas!! Tonight's game should be a good one. I have this game capped at Titans +2.5 as opposed to Titans -3. Per my system, the wrong team is favored. Not much to write about, but this should be an interesting matchup. The Titans are on a roll, but I think tonight is the end of the road against a very solid, balanced Chargers team. This should be an emotional game, which bodes well for the Titans early, but the Chargers should pull away in the second half. GL and Merry Christmas!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Chargers +3

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (41-39-2) -4.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (22-12-1) +17.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (15-20-1) -7.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (71-68-3) -4.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.00%)

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and enjoyed spending time with their families. I have a lot of dogs on the card today. In my opinion, many of today's lines are inflated. Hopefully, we can get back in the black today with a solid card. GL and enjoy today's picks!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Texans +1

**2 Unit Picks**
Seahawks +14
Panthers +9
Bucs +14
Rams +14.5
Broncos +7

*1 Unit Picks*
Bills +9
Chiefs +13.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (47-42-2) +2.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-5) -1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (26-14-1) +21 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (16-21-1) -7.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (83-73-3) +2.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.20%)

Yesterday was just what we needed to get back in the black this season. I have a 2 Unit Pick tonight as well. I love the Bears in this position. There may be turmoil in Vikings locker room, and I think that may spill over onto the field tonight. I have this game capped at Vikings -3.5. My main concern is Adrian Peterson, due to the Bears inability to stuff the run this season (allowing 4.36 YPR this season). With below freezing weather, I like the Bears to keep this one closer than the "experts" think. GL and enjoy the game!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Bears +9

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (48-42-2) +4.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-5) -1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (27-14-1) +23 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (16-21-1) -7.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (85-73-3) +4.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.80%)

Today, I have one 4 Unit Winner. The wrong team is favored in the early game. I have the early game capped as Jets -1.5. The linemakers agree with me, seeing as how the line has dropped quickly to Jets +1 from Jets +4. Should be a good day for some football. GL and stay warm today!!

****4 Unit Picks****
Jets +1

[rawhide]

Originally Posted by The Knuckleballer

Overall (48-42-2) +4.4 Units


****4 Unit Picks****
Jets +1

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (49-42-2) +8.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-1) -.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-5) -1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (27-14-1) +23 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (16-21-1) -7.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (89-73-3) +8.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.94%)

We started off the post season with a bang yesterday. Today, I have a 2 Unit Pick for the late afternoon matchup. The Packers should win by more than a field goal today. The Packers have the edge in rushing offense and rushing defense. Also, the Packers have converted 47% of their 3rd down attempts this season. This should be a good game, but I like the Packers to win and move on to the next round of the playoffs. GL and enjoy the game!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Packers -2.5

[sdyarnell]

Your positive here also. Nice... So how close are you to the University? Because I live there... lol

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (49-43-2) +6.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-1) -.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-5) -1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (27-15-1) +20.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (16-21-1) -7.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (89-75-3) +6.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.29%)

Today, I have 3 Winners for everyone. Unfortunately, I don't have time for write ups today. GL and enjoy the football!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Cardinals/Saints Under 57

**2 Unit Picks**
Ravens +6.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Cardinals +7