**The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Over the last four years, I have developed a computer based, statistical system designed to extrapolate value in Vegas’ lines. The system enables me to eliminate the lines that have little to any value and exploit the lines with a high probability of winning. Also, the system allows me to have an objective opinion and it mitigates the human element of handicapping. It is important for you to understand that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system gets stronger and stronger as the season wears on, because there is more and more relevant data to utilize. Also, money management is a key to long term success. My system does not produce “1000**** Triple Platinum Picks of the Century,” but it does produce consistent winners that help you add to your bankroll. Personally, I recommend a percentage based money management system where top plays equal 3% of your NFL bankroll and regular plays equal 1.5% of your NFL bankroll. Using this strategy it is important to recalculate your NFL bankroll on a weekly basis. It is unlikely that you will ever bet more than 20% of your NFL bankroll in one weekend using this strategy, because my system typically produces 5-7 picks a week. For tracking purposes, my top plays will equal 2 Units and regular plays will equal 1 Unit with an assumed 10% vig added to all losses. I encourage you to follow this thread throughout the season and provide pertinent feedback. GL to all and get used to winning on a consistent basis!! Trust me, it’s fun!!
-The Knuckleballer

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (0-0)
Top Plays (0-0)
Regular Plays (0-0)

Week 4 in the NFL season has finally rolled around and I now have enough data to start posting my NFL system plays. It is importatnt to remember that this is a marathon not a sprint as you follow my picks. This system is designed for long term success to not to guarantee 80% winning percentages week end and week out. Over the long haul it will win more than it loses. GL and enjoy this afternoons picks!!! Feedback is welcome.

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Jets +7.5
Chargers +6

[akatdrake]

Good luck. Feedback is tough when you do not tell us what you're basing your picks on...

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (1-2) -.2 Units
Top Plays (1-0) +2 Units
Regular Plays (0-2) -2.2 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3 Win +2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Jets +7.5 Loss -1.1 Units
Chargers +6 Loss -1.1 Units

Above are yesterdays picks. I hope to get in the black tonight with one final Week 4 NFL pick. Below is my last pick for the week, and I feel very confident that this regular play will come through for us. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. GL and enjoy tonights game!!!

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Packers +4.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (1-3) -1.3 Units
Top Plays (1-0) +2 Units
Regular Plays (0-3) -3.3 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3 Win +2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Jets +7.5 Loss -1.1 Units
Chargers +6 Loss -1.1 Units
Packers +4.5 Loss -1.1 Units


Terrible NFL and College weekend filled w/ nothing but dissapointment. Fortunately it's a long season, and I don't expect to see many more weeks like this one. GL to all!!!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (1-3) -1.3 Units
Top Plays (1-0) +2 Units
Regular Plays (0-3) -3.3 Units

Today's card is very tricky. Huge spreads are tough to navigate in the NFL. My system has one top play and 3 regular plays for the early games. I know that it hasn't been pretty lately, but this is a marathon not a sprint. GL and enjoy today's winners!!!

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Redskins +4

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Lions +10.5
Raiders +15.5
Bucs +15.5

[The Knuckleballer]

I have three late afternoon games to add to the card. Typically, I don't have this many picks, but I really feel like today's card is full of opportunity. I love the Broncos today. The Patriots are overated this year and the public is pounding them in this game. It is obvious that the betting public believes that the Broncos are overated, but I disagree. I look for the Broncos to win this game with solid defensive play. Look for the Broncos to force a lot of 3rd Down plays and get the Patriots off the field. GL and enjoy the winners!!!

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3
Texans +5.5

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
49ers -1

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (4-7) -1.8 Units
Top Plays (3-1) +3.8 Units
Regular Plays (1-6) -5.6 Units

Today, was an up and down day in the NFL w/ some close calls and missed opportunities. The Texans game was about as close as it gets to a win. That game goes to OT, and we have a high probability of covering. I have looked at the Monday night game from many angles, and I have what I believe to be the best pick of the season thus far. The line opened at +1 for the Dolphins. There was limited line movement either way early in the week meaning that the "Sharps" were likely not pounding the Jets. Then, as the week progressed and we moved into this morning the line started to jump around in favor of the Jets, moving to -3 at many books. Yet, despite the jump several books notorious for taking "Sharp" money are holding strong at '+1. This combined w/ some statistical advantages makes this a Top Play for me. I have Miami winning the game outright. Miami has converted slightly more than 50% of their 3rd down attempts, as opposed to the Jets who have converted just 35% of their 3rd down attempts. Also, Miami's defense is allowing just 2.94 YPR, which should make it difficult for the Jets to rely on Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to set the pace early and allow Mark Sanchez to settle into a rhythm. My one concern is Miami's inability to defend the pass early in the season, allowing an average of 8.4 YPA. If Sanchez gets hot and stays hot, which I don't predict will happen, there may be reason for concern. GL and enjoy the WINNER!!!

**Top Play** (2 Units)
Dolphins +3

[daft_picks]

Good writeup of the game tomorrow, I like the Dolphins to keep it close too. BOL

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall (5-7) +.2 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (0-0)
**2 Unit Plays** (4-1) +5.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (1-6) -5.6 Units

I am going to move to a unit based system that allows me the flexibility to bet more than 2Units on my strongest plays. Thus, I will be moving to a 1 to 5 Unit system. This means that for recordkeeping purposes my Regular Plays will be recorded as 1 Unit Picks and my Top Plays will be recorded as 2 Unit Picks. Going forward this will allow me to better exploit lines that are way off. Don't expect to see many 3, 4, and 5 Unit Plays, but I will have the option if an opportunity presents itself.

After analyzing tomorrow's card, it is obvious that there is very little value in most of the lines. In fact, I only have 3 NFL plays. I have one 3 Unit Pick and two 1 Unit Picks. I feel very confident in each of my plays, and I hope tomorrow ends well. Fortunately, Monday looks like it may shape up to be another Big Winner!! GL and enjoy!!!


***3 Unit Pick***
Texans +5.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 47
Bears/Falcons Under 46

[The Knuckleballer]

Today (3-0) +5 Units
Overall (8-7) +5.2 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (4-1) +5.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-6) -3.6 Units

Today was a big day. A small card full of winners puts us in a great position to capitalize on tomorrow's Monday Night matchup. I have been on Denver for two weeks now and tomorrow will be no different. Until the public and the linesmakers start to believe in this team, I will continue to capitalize on these bad lines. I have this line capped at -7 for the Broncos with the total at 35. My power ratings have Denver as the top defensive team in the NFL with San Diego as the 26th ranked defensive team in the NFL. On the offensive side of the ball, I have San Diego as the 10th ranked offensive team and Denver as the
24th ranked offensive team. Denver's inability to put up many points and the fact that they only convert 38.1% of their 3rd Downs accounts for much of this rating. Look for Denver to improve their 3rd Down Percentage tomorrow, because the Chargers are currently having trouble getting off the field on 3rd Down (allowing 49% 3rd Down Conversions). The Chargers are also allowing an average of 25.5 PPG. This may be the last good opportunity to take Denver for a while, because the lines are certain to adjust soon. GL and enjoy the Monday Night Winners!!!

Predicted Monday Night Score:
Denver 21 - Charger 14

**2 Unit Play**
Broncos +3.5

*1 Unit Play*
Broncos/Chargers Under 44

[daft_picks]

Very nice day, congrats!

My initial lean and play is with San Diego but you raise a good point about the Broncos being consistent winners these past few weeks and this is a huge game for them. I think it will be a good one, luck to you!

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Week (4-1) +5.9 Units
Overall (9-8) +6.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (5-1) +7.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-7) -4.7 Units

Last week was a great week. I like this weeks card as well. I have 50% of tomorrow's dogs covering. I believe some of these lines are very skewed due to some above average performances in recent weeks by teams such as the Patriots and Giants. My top play will be a shocker to most. I have the Bills as my ***3 Unit Pick*** for tomorrow. Way too many points for a team w/ an unreliable QB to cover. The Bills have weapons, and I think tomorrow is when they decide to use them. Look for the Bills to pull the upset tomorrow (and I use that term lightly with a couple of 2 win teams playing one another). I also like the 49ers to rip Houston on the ground tomorrow w/ the probable return of Gore to the lineup. The 49ers have averaged 4.21 YPR, while the Texans have given up 4.86 YPR this season. Gore could go big tomorrow, so for the fantasy players look to put him in the lineup. GL and enjoy the games!!!

***3 Unit Pick***
Bills +7

**2 Unit Picks**
49ers +3
Bucs +14.5
Cardinals +7

*1 Unit Picks*
Vikings +6
Falcons +4.5

[daft_picks]

On several of the same, haven't locked in the Bills yet but probably will soon. On opposite side of NYG/Ari game which makes me nervous. Luck to you tomorrow!

[The Knuckleballer]

Yesterday (2-3-1) +.4 Units
Overall (11-11-1) +6.5 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (6-2-1) +7.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-9) -6.9 Units

Some serious line movement has opened up a small opportunity on the Redskins. I have this game capped at 20-14 Eagles over the Redskins. In my opninion, the opening line on this game was correct (Eagles -5). Also, I like the total in this game as well. I have the total at 33.5. GL and enjoy tonights 1 Unit Winners!!!

*1 Unit Picks*
Redskins +9
Eagles/Redskins Under 38