Week 5 Discussion

[Daws1089]

This week I like Carolina -3.5. Apparently, everyone else does too as 75% of bettors are taking the panthers. I think the bye week was the best thing for the panthers to regroup and try to work out the kinks offensively. They will need to run the ball to have any shot at winning this one. Washington could be the worst 2-2 team in the league right now. They barely beat the rams by 2 and they beat the bucs at home by 3. They lost to detroit lol, I bet on the skins that game. It just doesn't seem like anything about this team is worth backing. Then again, you could say the same about Carolina. Carolina has certainly played a tougher schedule though losing to PHI,ATL, and DAL. Two of those being road games. Overall, the amount of people siding with Carolina bothers me, but I guess no one is really high on Washington these day...


I like Houston +5.5. The Cardinals seem to be in that hangover mode still from last season's sb appearance. Their pass defense is terrible and I think the Texans will exploit that much like Indy did.


Lastly, I like Baltimore -8.5. The books really seem to be taking a stand here on BALT by making this line -8.5. It is a divisional game between two 3-1 teams, and the line is this high. I gotta think the ravens come back from that loss last week with a vengence. They felt disrespected and screwed too on those roughing the qb calls. I like them to win this by 10 or more.


Let's get some chatter going. Does anyone have any leans on over/unders?

[DukiesBaby]

I really like the arizona cardinals at -5.5 for same reason u like houston, arizona will exploit houstons pass def this week at home in desert, I think both these teams will be airing it out which makes me lean towards the over, especially the first half over..

I think the steelers coach will be on the asses of his players this week after another 4th quarter implosion last week and they still beat chargers by ten, lions won't be able to run in this game and I think steelers pash rush is gonna get to the rookie, everyway I look at this I see a steelers 38 to 9 type of score so -10.5 looks good


Falcons ml +120 coming off a bye week looks good to me vs a san fran team without frank the tank... Tony gonzalez and micheal turner I expect to have good fantasy days in this game


Looking at +8.5 KC at home vs the cowgirls... This game feels like it has promise.. Kc just got there butt whipped by phili and nyg back to back now they get 3rd nfc east team in a row I have feeling public takes one to the balls this week and a suprise showing outta larry johnson...


Anyone like carolina washington under 37, I thought this line might be like ovr/undr 29. Seriously lol

[daft_picks]

Tricky card this week, not too much jumps out at me. Honestly though one of my top leans is Houston. Houston's defense is actually 10th versus the pass, it is their run defense that is terrible and (even though it was the raiders) they stepped it up last week. Arizona has shown me nothing so far this season and I think the Texans are hot right now. I still could see Arizona winning the game but I bet this line goes up to 6 and as such I like Houston + the points.

Even though it's such a high spread I do like the steelers to cover the big number versus the Lions. Lions D is terrible and will give up lots of points, I don't think the lions will have a chance to keep up.

I also like a hot 49ers team laying not even a FG versus a somewhat overrated Falcons squad. Not saying the Falcons are bad because they have some great players, but their run defense pales in comparison to the 49ers and I don't think Turner will have a big game, it is going to come down to Matt Ryan. The 49ers will continue to run run run and control the clock as much as possible, at home I think they will get it done. This is a team that could easily be 4-0 save for that miracle Favre bomb 2 weeks ago. Slight edge to Falcons for offense but bigger edge to 49ers for defense. Also think OVER 41 could be solid play, maybe even the better one.

I could never bet on KC right now, I think after Dallas lost a tough one in Denver they will come out firing and will mangle the Chiefs. Could be a no play cause who wants to lay 8.5 with Dallas on the road, but Larry Johnson sucks IMO and the Oline is just awful. Chiefs are a wreck, I would think Cowboys win by DD without much trouble.

Speaking of Denver I actually like their chances against the Pats this week. Public is hammering the Pats after they beat the Ravens, but historically Brady and co play poorly at Mile High stadium and Denver has momentum and statement game on their side. Even still after beating the Cowboys not many are buying this 4-0 squad (even I am skeptical), but I think the Denver D is vastly improved and will pressure Brady hard like in the Jets game. Also Denver runs the ball well it is what they do best and that is what the Pats worst defensive aspect is. This line will likely climb towards the Pats side (I already see +3.5 at EVEN some places and ML +160) but I think this might be the upset special of the week.

Also big chalk but Vikings -10 against Rams seems like a no brainer. Such a severe mismatch, the only thing to talk me off of it would be the Vikings taking it easy as they look ahead towards the Ravens, Steelers, and another match with the Packers before their bye. The Rams are just so terrible though I would never bet them at this point. Looks good for a 10 point teaser.

May have more later in the week, let's hear from the rest of the peanut gallery. BOL to all this weekend

[Reggie Hamlin]

Look I know I'm a homer but how can you bet against the Giants this week playing THE WORST TEAM in football the Raiders . I will continue to fade the raiders until they cover. 16 points is nothing as I suspect a 3 touchdown margin of victory here
does anyone think these raiders have a chance with Jamarcus Russel who is completing only 30 % of his passes. The coach is going to prison Jeff Garcia
gives the team no love Al Davis is senile I mean holy cow what more do I have to say
LAY THE WOOD They score 6 points Maybe in Giants stadium this game is over after the first half. They really suck period.

I like the Jets this week looking for a bounce back game against a division rival
I think the Jets D that held the Saints offense to 10 points will do well against this Dolphin team.The Jets -1 is a solid pick Mark Sanchez should come back after the terrible game he had in NO and the Defense will give Henne fits . The Jets proved they can play on the road I think Rex will have some suprises in store for Henne and the
the Fins and the Jets get a close win on the road .

[DukiesBaby]

Just a thought for u on why I might (but most likely will cause I agree raiders suck) not play g-men, because next week is a supposed 5-0 giants vs 4-0 saints big game to see who is the early nfc top dawg! So if giants are looking ahead they could end up in a close low scoring turnover type game here! But still that's just a thought after watching the whole game last week raiders do really look that bad

[bluedevil12]

I really like MIN over STL. They will pound AP early and often, take a lead, then when STL goes down a touchdown, they will have to get aggressive and take chances which is when Jared Allen and co. will wreak havok, force turnovers, force mistakes and create points. This will lead to a blowout...

I think the Jets bounce back big, Henne has not seen real NFL blitzes/defenses yet, and Rex Ryan will make sure this is a day Henne will never forget.

ARZ will make a statement at home coming off their bye week I think, I think they cover the spread.

Pats/Broncos should be a shootout, I like the over.

[daft_picks]

Can someone please tell me why everyone likes the Broncos Pats game to be a shootout? Law of averages maybe like finally some points have to be scored? The Broncos have allowed 6.5 points a game so far this season. Granted they have only played really one good offensive team in the cowboys but they held them to 10, and the bengals to 7 who have put up points on everyone else they have played. But against even the shaky cowboys D they only scored 17. The last time the Pats faced a statistically good defense this season it was the Jets where they lost 16-9. I would lean under 41.5 but not necessarily that strong, just want to know what keeps this game from being another low-scorer, maybe even like the pats/falcons game 26-10. Broncos offense is not that great although I have this sneaking suspicion they win this game. The Broncos have allowed 1 passing TD and 1 rushing TD in 4 games.

Speaking of unders I definitely like the UNDER 37.5 in the skins/panthers game. I just see very few TD's scored that game. I like it a lot more than the under in the Jets Fins game which is a whole point lower some places.

[Daws1089]

Why should the NE/DEN game be a shootout? Pats have only given up 24, 16, 10, 21. The Broncos have only given up 7, 6, 3, 10. The o/u is 41 which doesn't exactly indicate a ton of scoring. Denver's forte is to run the ball. Denver secondary has shut down almost every one. I don't know about the over. I can't see a ton of points by both teams here. Any reasons you like the over?

[FlyersFan]

I just have 1 comment this week......

the Raiders, KC, Tampa Bay, Washington, StLouis....these offenses are some of the worst i've seen in years. KC's PPG are skewed because they OWN garbage time.....late TD versus PHI and 2 versus NYG last week.

I don't see how anyone can wager on these teams until they show something. As boiler says, they won't go 0-16 ATS which is true but do you really want to burn your cash each week waiting for them to cover?? TAM 0-4, CLE 0-4, OAK 1-3, KC 0-4, STL 0-4 ATS.....

you can't cover a number especially in the single digits if you can't score. And does anyone think that STL or OAK or WAS offense is going to look better anytime soon?

i would be looking to play 1H unders with these teams or TT Under. You can't set the raiders offensive TT low enough...or the Rams.

At least CLE you kind of are waiting for some offense, maybe the same with KC.....

[DukiesBaby]

Not liking the broncos and pats over either, doesn't make sense to take an over with 2 ball control clock eating teams... pats seem to just take their time now adays to score when they do, don't see many down the field shots anymore partly because toms o-line isn't playing as good as it used too..


Same with carolina vs washington, minnesota vs st louis, atlanta vs san fran, and giants vs oakland... All games which feature good defenses with and or bad offenses, or ball control operated offenses... Not products of picking overs...

[Daws1089]

I feel like the sf line is looking for SF action. After their blowout last week of STL and their stellar play against SF, they come out as just a 2.5 pt fav over ATL? Either the books know they will get a bunch of love for ATL or they are just not that confident in SF this week.

[daft_picks]

I agree in some ways about the 49ers -2.5 line, but I think the public is backing the Falcons to a majority (though not a huge one) and that the public in general loves the Falcons and their offense. Not sure of exact record but I'm pretty sure the Falcons have been shaky on the road, even last season when they were good. They could not get it going against the Pats and I think the 49ers D could be legit and have a good chance at slowing them down.

Speaking of baiting lines though doesn't Jets -1.5 just look too easy? This line just looks to be asking for Jet money, a 3-1 team battling a 1-3 team but just barely favored? I think both QB's will struggle against good defense but I think what it comes down too is the Dolphins won't need to rely on their QB play nearly as much as the Jets will. The Dolphins have been running the ball really effectivley and are going to do everything they can to stick to that gameplan. Despite two good backs in Washington and Jones the Jets have yet to get their ground game on a good pace, they can't really seem to figure out what they want to do.

I think homefield could be huge in this game, last game Jets played away they got pretty much dominated by the Saints. As more tape becomes available on Sanchez I think he will be more and more susceptible to defensive schemes. This is a bitter rivalry and public perception is that the Jets are VERY good this season so it seems to me Vegas wants Jets money on this. Let's not forgot how easily Miami crushed the Bills last week, I think they will stick to a very similar game plan and keep Henne from having to throw much. That being said the Jets defense is very good and they should know what to expect.

Interested to hear what others think on that.

[Daws1089]

I hear ya Daft on the ATL offense. The public really does like it, even though ATL has been pretty avg to start the year imo. Singletary will likely take away Gonzo in the middle like Bellichek did making Jenkins and White beat them on the outside. I'm still leaning towards the under in that game. No game breakers on SF offense.

[Daws1089]

I'd like to take Tenn because the line is low and I think they come out and make a statement in prime time to stop their run of losses, but how will the stop manning? Jags and Texans threw all over them. I just don't know how the titans would pull this one out, but I think the line indicates tennessee is the side.I'll have to think this over more.

[bookiekilla]

Originally Posted by daft_picks

I agree in some ways about the 49ers -2.5 line, but I think the public is backing the Falcons to a majority (though not a huge one) and that the public in general loves the Falcons and their offense.

Not sure where you're seeing the public backing Falcons...as of right now I'm looking at sportsinsights, and I see 62% on the 49ers and 38% on falcons. The line has pretty much stayed steady at 2.5 at most books....wrong team favored in this one...but what the hell do I do...I'm a falcons homer