Week 6 Discussion

[daft_picks]

Wanted to start this one off early cause there are a few plays I like and want to get other sides to my opinions.

Homedogs:
Carolina @ Tampa Bay +3
Philly @ Oakland +14

Very few homedogs I realize, and neither I would think to play. In fact I think Philly could easily cover 2 TD's at the half. Philly makes an easy 10 point teaser play IMO. The Raiders are terrible and who wants to put money on the Bucs?

Some live dogs I do like include Giants +160, Ravens +120, Cards +120, Texans +4.5. Having a hard time finding value in a lot of this week's lines, but I like all of these dogs chances.

I like the Under 42 in Rams/Jags and Over 39.5 Bucs/Panthers games for weird reasons because they seem too easy on the other side. Not sure if that is great logic though. Over 48 Lions/Packers looks solid too maybe, the Lions can't stop anybody but they can put up points. I almost like the Lions plus the almost 2 TD's, but only enough to tease it up to 20 points. LOL. Over 43.5 looks nice in Ravens/Vikings game.

Jets -9.5 over Bills...too easy? Bills are TERRIBLE. Jets are PISSED. I smell blowout.

Those are my initial leans, anybody else? Let's get some winners this week!

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't know what the fascination is with the Giants this week, or any other. The only even halfway decent team they played was Dallas and they needed a +4 turnover margin to beat them with a last second fg.

KC, Oakland, TB, Washington? All beyond horrible.

Aints at home, off a bye, and finally playing a little defense this year to go with all those points they put up, while this is the Giants 4th road game in 5 weeks and have a hurting qb.

Speaking of horrible, the Bucs are a very live home dog IMO. Carolina blows ass. A little comeback against crappy Washington and now they're a road fave? LOL

And wow does the NFL suck this year from a fans perspective. I can't remember the last time the bottom of the league was so pathetic, and these phantom defensive personal foul calls are getting worse every year

[Daws1089]

Great points stif. Agree on TB. Not sure what CAR has done to go a road fav. Despite the INTs, I actually thought Josh Johnson wasn't half bad. If only someone else besides Winslow could catch a pass...


Some large spreads out there again this week with all the **** teams this year. I don't know if I like any of them. I can't back OAK or STL. I still need to think about backing CLEV. I guess the Lions would be the easiest for me to back given GB's offensive line and defensive struggles. Its in the division and if Culpepper starts again I like the spark he brings to the offense. I can't believe I just said Culpepper brings a spark to an offense lol. Anyway, these large home favs can't continue to cover for very much longer can they? Maybe they can, these teams that are dogged are real bad.

Also, why is the Texans line not higher? Doesn't seem to me that the books are all that confident in CIN this week.

[FlyersFan]

Washington hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game in like a complete season. Pretty tough to cover 7 points when you are most likely not going to hit 20 for the game. Their O-line is in shambles, they can't run the football, Portis is a shell of the shell that he used to be.........kind of like KC.

Also like HOU this week....CIN hasn't been beating anyone by margin and they even let Cleveland hang around in that one. Possible big time let down spot after 2 huge B2B division wins over Pittsburgh and Baltimore. HOU showed me a lot even in losing last week coming from 21-0 down.

and yes stif, i agree completely. Buffalo, Cleveland, StLouis, Oakland and Tampa Bay are quite possibly 5 of the worst teams in can ever recall in the NFL. I mean talk about ineptitude on offense. As i said last week, i really don't know how you can bet on any of those teams because they all have a hard time reaching 10 points.

[DukiesBaby]

Just got done looking at lines for week 6 and my initial leans are:

Kansas City Chiefs +6.5
I don't think redskins are good enough to cover a td so points look really good in a fg game.

Houston Texans +4.5
I think houston finds a way to win this week, just a gut feeling I have had for a few seconds :)

New York Giants +3
Defense defense defense, giants have one and I like it, their pass rush is incredible week in and week out, this game will be a good one, I will fade the public on this game no matter the side, if public splits 50-50 or 60-40 than ill go with +3 g-men

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Carolina is terrible they need to tell delhome to go home and stay there... Tampa wins this outright at home.

Det/GB Over 48
I kinda like the pack to cover at home and over looks easy, but this game could go under just as easy, but early lean is over by way of air attack

Philadelphia Eagles –14
Oakland is power ranked #32 IMO they are last years Lions (joke of the NFL) they could play this game vs phili's 3rd string in al davis's back yard and still not cover

Seattle Seahawks –3
Seattle is still gonna win the nfc west and arizona doesn't like the cold wet northwest, with the loud fans

Tenn/NE Over 43
Brady should look like brady of 2007 and chris johnson and lindell are gonna run like ALL OVER pats run def, which is not good

Chicago Bears +3
Cutler off bye week going to throw a lot and score a lot, a moneyline play here could be brewing if I can get public to pounce on atl for me

Denver Broncos +4
Undefeated team with great defensive play, given +4 in a division game, sounds like a given.. Be interested to see how this line looks bye saturday

[Stifler's Mom]

Now go easy on the Bills, lol. They have been competitive in every game with the exception of @ Miami, including taking NE and NO down to the wire (NO game was played MUCH closer than the final score), and outplayed the ****ty Browns (I know, that's not saying much) but didn't score and gave that one away with bonehead mistakes/penalties and a huge turnover at the end. No, they're not a good team right now with the trillion injuries they have, but they don't belong in the same class as Oakland or St Louis either.

With that being said, I don't see how they're gonna move the ball on the Jets with no blocking and all those blitzes coming. I assume they will try to run some screens/traps/draws to counter the blitzes, but that will only work for a little while, till they fall behind. Asking them to cover +9.5 or +10 in that game is asking too much.

Denver loses #1 this week, imo. SD off a bye and pretty desperate for a win already, and Denver due for a letdown after beating NE....so pick the winner and lay the -4, which is up from -3.5 despite public 65 to 70% on Denver. Funny how the consensus pretty much was that Denver was a joke at 4-0, but go ahead and beat NE, and now the public believes. Time to jump off the Donkeys, at least for 1 week. Denver, imo, is in fact a quality team.....and definitely the better team between the two (DEN and SD) though.....but sometimes the better team doesn't win, and I think that will be the case this Monday night.

As much as I fear backing OAKLAND, I am very leery of laying 2+ TD's with Philly on the road. From what I saw of the game, they gave up pretty much yardage last week to TB, but TB failed to capitalize. Eagles always strong off the bye week too, so last week's rout of TB may be a little misleading. But as much as I'd like to go against them this week, that would mean betting ON OAKLAND. YUCK.

[Jerbeek]

Not sure either the Bill or Browns were competitive in that 6-3 shootout - LOL!

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Jerbeek

Not sure either the Bill or Browns were competitive in that 6-3 shootout - LOL!

.....2 completions and the browns are reportedly shopping their OTHER qb...

BUF is a trainwreck. Sorry stif...lol....beat a dreadful TAM team at home and then got beat like a drum by Miami, NO got away late and clevaland game...lol...enough said on that one. Lots of injuries and trent edwards stinks as a QB. They've scored 20 points in 3 weeks...pretty much up there with the Rams and Raiders for offense of the month.....


i do like SDG this week, especially on a monday night. HUGE game for SDG as a loss and they are 3 back in the division and 2-3 on the year. Norv Turner factor always a hinderance when betting SDG though....

[Daws1089]

FlyersFan,

Agree that WASH is almost as bad as the rest, but they are facing the #31 defense. I have to think they air it out on KC. At the same time though, Samuels is out for the WASH OL. I'm staying far far away. Atleast WASH defense is serviceable. The same can't be said about KC.

[Daws1089]

what the heck is up with JAX laying 10 to anyone? Especially after the performance on sunday. It's probably best to avoid this game too.


Does anyone have a lean on the ATL/CHI game? I'm not entirely confident in the Bears secondary matchups against White/Gonzo. Double the TE, single coverage on the outside or Double White and you get Gonzo one on one with a safety. Either way it sounds like a bad matchup for CHI.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

FlyersFan,

Agree that WASH is almost as bad as the rest, but they are facing the #31 defense. I have to think they air it out on KC. At the same time though, Samuels is out for the WASH OL. I'm staying far far away. Atleast WASH defense is serviceable. The same can't be said about KC.

WAS has played DET, STL and TAM which are the 3 WORST scoring defenses in the league and not cracked 20 points against any of them. I mean 14 points against the Lions, 16 versus Tampa at home, and 17 versus Carolina is pretty sorry. So it's not like the Redskins have been shut down the the '85 bears for 3 straight weeks. My point is that you have a team that couldn't hit 20 points if you started them on 20 laying 7 points. KC is awful defensively as well, but are they any worse than those 3?? And both of these teams are near the bottom of the league in offesne. WAS isn't going to blow anyone out IMO which was why i was leaning to KC. Haven't made up my mind yet, was just tossing that around. I agree WAS has the better defense by a long shot but that hasn't mattered in any of their games because they can't score. And if Sameuls is out now, goooooooood luck getting much of anything done even against 11 of us.

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

17 versus Carolina is pretty sorry.

And they got 14 of those 17 courtesy of 2 Carolina turnovers that put them on Carolina's 10 and 1 yard lines. Washington is pitiful.

[hodown]

Here's a fun Redskin stat: At the time of each Redskin game, they have yet to step on the field against a team who has won a game.

With regards to the Saints/NYG game, lots of things seem to be pointing towards the Saints. Coming off a bye week, playing at home, having played a much tougher schedule. Not saying the Giants aren't the better team cuz they I would trust them more in the playoffs, but they seem kind of untested lately, as well as beatup.

The Bengals line is very low, too low.

SD makes a nice play Monday night as well, I think that's a great play at -3.5. Coming off a bye, at home, Denver letdown. SD absolutely has to have this game and I think they get it.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Trent Edwards has been sacked 18 times in the last 5 games I don't think anything
changes and I look for the Jets who were Humbled by Miami to play a solid game
on both sides of the ball this week . The Jets talked much trash and Miami made them eat it but good, so maybe this was a good thing for the Jets and Rex Ryan to learn.
I look for the Jets D to step it up this week get to Edwards and force some turnovers
against a hapless Bills squad.

The Giants can only beat who they put in front of them Stif. If they can control
the ball with the running game and keep the saints O off the field they have a good
chance to win. The Giants secondary is what scares me this will be their first true test
I think Ross is coming back this week but Canty is still out. If DB has time to throw
he may pick the Giants apart I expect the Giants to Blitz often and try to keep him
in the pocket. It's going to be a good one.