Week 8 Discussion

[Daws1089]

Starting early...


Bears -13.5

How in the world can CHI be minus nearly 2 tds after what they threw out there last week? I was one of the idiots who backed chicago thinking the line was off, but I was the one off. Bears defense has nothing to offer really. Cutler is still throwing INTs which can keep CLE in the game. I can understand some of the good teams in the nfl covering these large spreads week after week, but now the bears are expected to? On the other hand, maybe the Bears need this game and it will be a "get right" game at home after getting embarrassed. I'll have to look into this more.


Eagles -3

Public is loading up on NYG as a dog. Looks like the public is coming back for me again this week to get that money back from backing the NYG the last two weeks. NYG are really not as good as every thinks. They are a product of a soft schedule of teams who they beat up on like WASH, barely beat DAL, TB, KC, and OAK. basically the trash of the league. Now they have played 1 really good team and 1 decent team in the last two weeks and they are seeing that its going to take a little more to win those games. I know you can't change who you play, but you can say that playing the bad teams really doesn't prepare you for when you have to play a good one. Eagles can throw the ball, something the giants struggle with. We also saw the Giants turn the ball over like mad. Pick the winner.

Tenn -3

A winless team favored? Wow. I might have to back Tenn, but how can I after what they've shown us thus far. JAX is capable of laying an egg and if I remember correctly Del Rio is terrible off a bye. JAX could run for days on the Tenn D tho.

[Jcb890]

I was thinking the same thing about the CHI and TEN games. How can the Bears be favored by so much and how can the Titans even be favored?

Two games I like right now are:

HOU -3.5 @ BUF

I don't know about the weather yet... that would be my main concern in this one. If the weather is good, I don't think the Texans have any problem with the Bills. If the weather is crappy, I think Houston could lay a stinker. Overall, I think Houston is the better team, but if the weather is crappy, I think it evens the playing field.

AZ -10 vs. CAR

Carolina is pitiful and Arizona is pretty good, at home and can put up points. The only thing I don't like is Arizona's run D against Williams and Stewart. However, Delhomme is horrendous and Arizona can put up a lot of points, which may force the Panthers to throw more if they fall behind.

[hodown]

Agreed Daws, I look at those lines and they definitely stand out, but I also know that I don't want any part of any of them.

I think the Bears are in an absolute must win situation and I don't see how Cleveland stays with them outside of turnovers which Cleveland is one of the worst in the league in differential. Having said that -13.5 is quite a few. The other two games are tossups imo, anything could happen with those four teams. I'm hearing reports on the radio that VY may start for Tenn this weekend, not sure if that influences anyone one way or the other.

As far as intriguing lines go, I think Minnesota +3 at GB falls under that category. The Vikes have no quality road wins to speak of, and the Packers have no quality wins to speak of at home or away. Sure the atmosphere in Lambeau will be electric, but having watched the MNF game earlier in the year between these two, the Vikes looked like the superior team. The problem for the Vikes is what Favre do you get in a situation like this, he'll either be great or he'll cost them the game imo.

To me the best line of the week is...

Baltimore -3.5 vs. Denver
I think it's a similar situation to the Min/Pit game last week, where the undefeated team comes in as a dawg, and somewhat of a must win situation for the hometeam. Balt is on a 3 game slide, all 3 of the games being competitive. The two losses at NE and Min are 2 of the toughest places to play in the NFL and I see no shame in those. The loss at home to Cinci kind of hurt, but to me that game was more of Balt 'holding serve,' where this game against Den is a team with its back against the wall. The Balt secondary is worrisome against Marshall, but I gotta draw the line somewhere with Orton and this Denver team on the road and this will be the game. Waiting for a team to finally lose isn't smart betting, but this is more of a play on Balt at home with a small line and its back against the wall.

[Daws1089]

jcb,

Arizona actually has an excellent run defense. It's their pass defense that is not good.

[Jcb890]

I know, they kept the Giants in check for the most part. However, when it is clicking, the Panthers run game is insane. Either way, I don't think Carolina can hang with AZ and I don't think it will be very close either.

[Jcb890]

On Bodog AZ is already up to -10.5

Anybody else think this line will creep higher as the week goes along?

[KKoz9]

I'm all over the Titans coming off a bye at home against a mediocre Jax team. Tenn is not a 13-3 team like last year, but they're not an 0-7 team either.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

Tenn -3

A winless team favored? Wow. I might have to back Tenn, but how can I after what they've shown us thus far. JAX is capable of laying an egg and if I remember correctly Del Rio is terrible off a bye. JAX could run for days on the Tenn D tho.

The Titans D is bad. I think this is a clear cut over play. Both teams should be able to get the run game going, and in turn the pass game should produce. IMO the total is a better play than the Titans....


I also think another Bills ML play is in order, they can finally face off vs a team they can run against, and I think it will be the difference.

[Daws1089]

good idea on the jax/ten total. I agree. BUFF should run all over HOU. Fitz with another week of reps can only help.

[DJTranks]

Giants need a win! :P

GL this weekend!

[Daws1089]

Saints/Falcons O/U 54

This is the highest total I've seen in a long time. I think the mnf hype of Brees/Ryan might be contributing to this. I mean how often do we see the public overreact to what a team (Saints)did the week before. I certainly think this could be that scenario, but right now I am not betting on a Saints under. Especially with a capable offense like ATL. I do like the Saints -10. ATL is soft on D this year thanks to some injuries and the Saints are a machine right now. could see a 30-20 game, but I'm thinking more like 31-17.

[Billy The Kid]

Raiders +16.5 - this line jumps out to me the most this week. What has SD done to be a 16.5 point fav this year? Last week the chiefs were the popular play getting 5 from this san diego team and IMO the raiders are a better team then the chiefs. Yea they were on the road and are playing at home this week but this is the same chargers team that beat the raiders by 4 points the first game of the year. Last weeks big loss to the jets is fresh in everyone's mind but Oakland was in a very difficult spot, off a huge win v. philly, playing a jets team desperate for a win in a great spot. Justin Fargas avg. like 8 yds a carry last week but Oakland was forced to abandone the run early when falling behind, and Fargas was limited the rest of the way, even taken out in the 2nd half to avoid injury. IMO the books have this line way to high expecting the public to fade one of the poorer teams in the nfl this year with kc, tampa, wash, on byes and st. louis/det playing one another.

Bills +3 -120 - IMO this is the wtf line of the week so ill prob. be on it. Bills off a solid road win now home against the high powered texans offense. I agree with the previous posts that buffalo should be able to run the ball effectively, just have concerns as to whether or not fitzy can manage the game well enough to keep the houston offense off the field (udog your thoughts on that are welcome) also don't like buffalo's chances if they end up in a shootout.

also lean towards the 49ers, and seahawks

[Daws1089]

Eagles/Giants


Line is making a big move back to a pick em and I even saw NYG -1 for a while this morning. I don't know if this is because of Westbrook or just a ton of money on NYG. Westbrook has not been ruled out of sunday's game although he probably is and Andy is just mking the NYG prepare for him. The over 44 seems decent. Neither defense has been great this year. I mean the eagles have a few games where the D came up with a lot of turnovers, but thats fine bc turnovers lead to points. Eagles like the pass and NYG pass defense is horrid. over 44 seems like the right play.

[DukiesBaby]

This week could be a huge week for me or a really bad one, but as of right now I am sold on a lot of underdogs winning straight up this week,

Dolphins, jags, seahawks, vikings, rams, falcons

I like the phins because 1 they are the best rushing team in the league, and I think they match up well vs jets.

Jags are better than tennesee, I don't want to sit here trying to pick the week tenn wins cause they are so bad it might not happen

Seahawks, dallas win last week means nothing to me, let's see how they handle a fast seahwks team with a fired up hassleback this week.

Vikings, as someone said earlier this is bretts game to win or lose, and after last weeks BS 4th quarter I think mr Lambo himself wins this

If rams are gonna win this year now is the week I like them to do so, they have played some good teams this year and kept competitive, detroit still is smoke and mirrors so rams get a win

Falcons, the saints just keep winning, and reggie bush comments on that the saints can go undefeated. Way to put a target out. Falcons play well versus saints historically and this is the most talented offense the saints will play all year so ill fade here and take the 4-1


Other games I like this week
Eagles
Over jags titans
Over colts 49ers
Under denver baltimore


Good luck everyone this week

[Underdog88]

I like the way you're thinking Dukies. I could see some of those teams winning su. I'm not sold on the Rams or Seahawks winning, but I could see the others. I'm not sold on the Falcons winning su either, just because the Saints seem as if they want to blow teams out. Any play against them will have to be a tt over play, because you're going to have to score a ton to beat them.