Week 9 Early Thoughts

[Oracle]

Early Looks:

Arizona - Humiliated by the heavy underdog Panthers and now playing maybe the most overrated team in the NFL. The Bears have holes everywhere and are somehow favored. Weather could be an issue but the Cards should roll over the Munchkins of the Midway.

Denver - Monday Night Home Dog? Don't they have only one loss? The books are slapping the Broncos in the face. Look for an inspired effort on primetime, at home, vs the defending champions. Denver has owned Pittsburgh and they will have Roethlisberger running for his life. The Steelers are beat up and should not be a road favorite at Mile High.

Seattle - Seattle should be fired up coming home off a good beating at the hands of the Cowboys. Young Mr. Stafford will pay the price against a very underrated Seattle defense. This is a hard place to play and the Lions can't beat winless St. Louis at home. Don't like laying 10 points but I see this being a blowout.

Tampa Bay - Home Dog off bye. Two weeks to prepare for the Packers who have serious issues in the trenches and are in a sandwich between Vikings and Cowboys. Can't see the Packers giving anyone douible digits especially on the road.

Cincinnati - Didn't the Bengals beat the Ravens once already in Baltimore? Now they are at home, had two weeks to prepare, and are getting points. Maybe it's just me but something doesn't add up. This isn't your daddy's Ravens. The defense is vulnerable.

Miami - A double digit division dog. This is a another curious line. The public is back on Brady and Co. bandwagon after they smacked around a terrible Titans pass defense and dismantled the winless Buccaneers. Miami has had a brutal schedule all year and they've done a good job holding their own. Can't see them getting 10+ here.

NY Giants - Like them here but they may be as overrated as the Bears are. Maybe humiliation over the Eagles debacle and San Diego coming all the way across the country gives them a win and cover here but they scare me as a favorite the way they've been playing and the rash of injuries they are fighting through.


Going through the Totals now. Will post what I come up with there. Will narrow this down to four to six bets by Sunday just some early thoughts without going through the whole process of fully cappin the games, any feedback is welcome.

[Oracle]

Coughlin tells slumping Giants' star players to lead by example
Associated Press





EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- The job of turning around the New York Giants belongs to quarterback Eli Manning, linebacker Antonio Pierce and the defending NFC East champions' other leaders.

Coach Tom Coughlin went out of his way Wednesday to tell the team that its leaders must take control and end the Giants' current three-game losing streak.

"Leaders are lifters," Coughlin said twice during his news conference Wednesday. "And normally what has to happen when a team does fight their way out of a problem, your best players have to show the way. They are the ones that show the way. The guys that are in the role of a foot soldier, they will play and they will work their tails off.

"But what ultimately shows is when the guys that are recognized as your quality football players, your better football players, they have to play themselves into a position where they are showing the way."

That's not happened for the Giants (5-3) in the recent slide that has slipped them from first place in the NFC East to third, one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.

Manning has thrown six interceptions during the losing streak, and Pierce has been the leader of a defense that has allowed the New Orleans Saints and the Eagles to both score at least 40 points.

Things won't be any easier Sunday when the Giants are home to play the San Diego Chargers (4-3), who have won their last two games.

Manning and Pierce both welcomed the coach's challenge in what will be New York's final game before a bye -- a week that the team wants to avoid entering with a four-game losing streak.

"You always expect your leaders and the guys who expect to play well to go out there and do their job and play at a high level," said Manning, who has thrown just three touchdown passes in the last three games. "That level motivates the other guys and gets everybody going. We have to do our job. Each individual has to do their job, whether you are a guy expecting to make plays. If you are out there on the field, everybody has to do their job."



Pierce admitted he has played poorly during the Giants' losing streak.

"Coach didn't need to challenge any of us," Pierce said. "We are on a three-game losing streak and we're turning into pretty much the laughingstock as far as how we're playing on defense, so it's a fun week for us. So he doesn't need to call none of us out. We'll step it up this week. We had a good practice."

Pierce scoffed at the idea of having a team meeting, saying the Giants need to do their talking Sunday.

"It's one of our biggest games of the year," said Pierce, who earlier this week in a radio interview equated this game with another Super Bowl.

Pierce echoed Coughlin, saying the Giants' stars need to play like stars, the contributors need to contribute and everyone needs to do a little more.

"Obviously what we are doing now is not working," Pierce said. "It has nothing to do with Xs and Os. Sometimes it does. Sometimes you have to go above Xs and Os and play a little harder, run to the ball more, have energy, show some spirit that you want to enjoy playing the game, have some passion about the game because it passes you by fast, and we don't what to see our season pass us by."

Linebacker Danny Clark said there is a definite sense of urgency.

"I don't think at this point we need a bunch of 'rah-rah' guys, we need more leadership by example, going the extra mile to get us better," he said. "That's something we've taken pride in, the veterans, going out on the practice field and doing a little more, going a little harder, faster, longer."

The defense probably will have some help Sunday: Defensive tackle Chris Canty and weakside linebacker Michael Boley are expected to play.

Canty has been sidelined since the opening game with a calf injury. Boley had surgery on his right knee last month.

Boley expects to play, but he noted that the final decision will be left to the medical personnel.

"It's a young season, it's a real young season," he said. "It's not one of those things where I am going to sit here and say I'm rushing to get back, it's Week 15. That's not the case. The season is still young. We've got another half of the season."

Canty, who never missed a game in four seasons with the Cowboys, said having to sit out seven games in a row has been hard.

"It's difficult in any circumstance, even when we were winning," he said. "When we were 5-0, it was difficult not being out there contributing to the success of your football team. It's tough. I have never had to deal with that, and it comes with a dose of humility as well."

Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press

Liking the Giants more now. The Chargers are looking at a long flight home if this defense steps up.

[rollin in it]

With you on a few. Cant see the Cardinals not beating up the Bears.

Like Miami and the +10 or +11 pts.

Like Seattle covering a still awful Detroit squad.

Not sure I touch Green Bay. They lose ATS against good teams, and cover against the bad ones usually. Tampa is a bad one. I lean towards them covering even with Tampa's bye week.

I like the Chiefs. I think Jamal Charles is going to give the team a lift coming off the bye against a bad Jacksonville team.

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Early Looks:

Arizona - Humiliated by the heavy underdog Panthers and now playing maybe the most overrated team in the NFL. The Bears have holes everywhere and are somehow favored. Weather could be an issue but the Cards should roll over the Munchkins of the Midway.

Just a few thoughts/notes from this Bears fan:
* weather will not be an issue (62 and clear for Sunday last I heard)
* Bears are 3 pt faves and if we stick to the "home team gets 3 pts" then technically it's a Pick 'EM
* Boldin might not play. if he doesn't, expect Peanut Tillman to shadow Fitz the whole game but look for Breaston to have a nice day since the rest of the secondary sucks
* I agree that we have holes in a lot of places especially in the secondary and the o-line since they couldn't open up a hole vs a high school D right now but just out of curiosity, is the maybe the most overrated your thought? I haven't heard/seen that anywhere. Yeah, we have underperformed to date but I don't know if we should be considered overrated b/c of that
* Bears have won 6 straight at home (for what it's worth)

anyways, just my two cents - GL w/your plays!

[Badger]

Since the coach gave his two cents about his local team, I'll give you a few about my hometown Packers.

1. Isn't Tampa starting the rookie QB from K-State Freeman in this game? Sorry, but I like Woodson/Al Harris against the rook in this spot.

2. Yes, the Packers have issues on the O-line. But I would argue the Bucs don't have anyone near the likes of the Vikes Jared Allen as a pass rusher. Plus, the Pack is set to get Clifton back at LT, Spitz back at C, and possibly the old-boy Tauscher back at RT. No more rookies (Lang) or 2nd-stringers (Wells) perfecting lookout blocks. So take that for what its worth.

I'm not saying I'd lay the heavy wood on the Pack (as a policy I NEVER bet on my favorite team, too biased to keep it in perspective). All I'm saying is don't look at the two turds they laid at the hands of Brent Favre as the basis of your decision.

Good Luck though!

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by COACH DITKA

Just a few thoughts/notes from this Bears fan:
* weather will not be an issue (62 and clear for Sunday last I heard)
* Bears are 3 pt faves and if we stick to the "home team gets 3 pts" then technically it's a Pick 'EM
* Boldin might not play. if he doesn't, expect Peanut Tillman to shadow Fitz the whole game but look for Breaston to have a nice day since the rest of the secondary sucks
* I agree that we have holes in a lot of places especially in the secondary and the o-line since they couldn't open up a hole vs a high school D right now but just out of curiosity, is the maybe the most overrated your thought? I haven't heard/seen that anywhere. Yeah, we have underperformed to date but I don't know if we should be considered overrated b/c of that
* Bears have won 6 straight at home (for what it's worth)

anyways, just my two cents - GL w/your plays!

Hey Coach, not necessarily knocking the Bears just can't see how they are favorites against a better Arizona team. Haven't looked at any weather yet but the wind would be my concern if there is any. I say overrated in terms of if this game was on a neutral field no way would I make it a pick'em. Overrated by the book or underrating Arizona after losing to Carolina may be more like it.

Before I go any further I've been a Steelers fan my whole life and I think they are also overrated this season because they've beaten nobody besides a Minnesota team that was surely looking ahead to Green Bay and they should not be road favorites against a one loss Denver team in Denver on a Monday night coming off a loss.

On that note that's why I consider the Bears overrated, they've beaten Pittsburgh but after that it was Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit. As you stated their secondary is weak which is bad news vs the Cardinals and I don't see them having the ability to pressure Warner which is the key to beating Arizona. The line provides no push for Forte and Cutler has been shaky.

With all this plus Arizona coming off a stunning loss to Carolina I just can't see the Bears holding up against a Cardinals team that will surely be motivated to play their best.

Good luck on your plays Coach nothing personal against your team just looking at it from a gambling perspective. Thanks for the feedback.

[hodown]

Being a Bears fan, I can definitely say they are smoke and mirrors sitting at 4-3. Having said that they could easily be 6-1 which is laughable but true. I think the game is tight either way, but the best value play would probably be Arizona ML, but that's just value.

IMO Giants are the best play on this board, backs are against the wall and at home, similar to Baltimore last week and Pitt or Dallas the week before.

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by Badger

Since the coach gave his two cents about his local team, I'll give you a few about my hometown Packers.

1. Isn't Tampa starting the rookie QB from K-State Freeman in this game? Sorry, but I like Woodson/Al Harris against the rook in this spot.

2. Yes, the Packers have issues on the O-line. But I would argue the Bucs don't have anyone near the likes of the Vikes Jared Allen as a pass rusher. Plus, the Pack is set to get Clifton back at LT, Spitz back at C, and possibly the old-boy Tauscher back at RT. No more rookies (Lang) or 2nd-stringers (Wells) perfecting lookout blocks. So take that for what its worth.

I'm not saying I'd lay the heavy wood on the Pack (as a policy I NEVER bet on my favorite team, too biased to keep it in perspective). All I'm saying is don't look at the two turds they laid at the hands of Brent Favre as the basis of your decision.

Good Luck though!

Good rule not to bet on the hometown team. I try to do the same with the Steelers although I will bet against them if I feel the spot is right, like this week.

Agree the Packers are the better team, I also agree that a rookie quarterback against the Packers corners is a dangerous proposition. The issue I see here is more can Green Bay pressure him into mistakes? They are near the bottom of the league in sacks(as is Tampa).

My main reasoning here is can Green Bay recover from an emotional loss to Minnesota go on the road as a double digit favorite and cover while not overlooking winless Tampa Bay when they have the Cowboys up next.

Not a big trends or systems guy but there is a real consistent system for home dogs off a bye and for winless teams off a bye. Tampa also has had their number although this is a different Tampa team.

Would I take Tampa Bay straight up? Hell no and I may not take them at all but right now they are one of the teams on my radar.

Good luck with your plays Badger. Thanks for the feedback and great job on the game previews.


Boy you NFC North guys are ready to kill me already!!!

[DukiesBaby]

My first thoughts on this week

Ravens -3
this looks good to me, in that last week the ravens showed signs of their defense actually getting things done right. the bengals dont really put up points on offense to begin with and 3 penalties in last drive to beat the ravens wont happen again...

Packers -9.5
packers IMO are gonna just murder tampa, i dont really care to break this down too much, tampa is a bad football team on both sides of the ball, rodgers can throw, and tampa cant which is gonna really hurt tampa... i would like to guess a 27-6 type of game here... maybe even 24-3


Bears -3
if the books wanted me on the bears they woulda put this line at arizona -4.5 ,
but i dont believe the books do, i think they want money on arizona, arizona got spanked at home by carolina? makes u think they should play good the next week. nah ill fade kurt warner & the public on grass in bear country


Patriots -10
i tailed dolphins last week at moneyline but i wont do it this time, Patriots are clicking and coming off a bye week, plus if new england commits themselves to stopping the run, this game could get outta hand. now i am not comparing tenn and miami the "teams" to each other, but the fact that both these teams rely very heavily on the run game makes them a lil one dimensional, it could get ugly...


Eagles -3
umm home team on sunday night on a pickem? sure boss they are hot and ready E-A-G-L-E-S!


Pitt -3
2 really good defenses in this game, ill take big ben over kyle orten ANY DAY!


I havent seen any lines for over/unders, but i probably will lean over in sf/tenn game & colts/texans game.... and under in jack/kc game & balt/cinci game..

good luck everyone...

[Badger]

Good luck with your plays Badger. Thanks for the feedback and great job on the game previews.

Thank you for the kind words Oracle.


Boy you NFC North guys are ready to kill me already!!!

Nah! Just passing along info. In fact, both Clifton and Tauscher took all the snaps at LT and RT respectively in practice yesterday. So they both look like a go. Not sure if that keeps Rodgers upright or not, but it can't hurt.

Either way, I think the Packers were embarrassed twice by the Vik-queens and they seem determined to save face Sunday. At least that's what they're saying.

GL this week.

[Daws1089]

I would look for the NYG to reinvent that run game and just pound SD all day. Try to control the clock, not make Eli throw too much, and keep their secondary off the field. The secondary is really their biggest issue, so I like under and NYG. SD has played a couple cream puffs coming into this game such as KC and OAK so I think the NYG can maybe catch them off guard especially with the trip east and the NYG recent losses combined with SD's recent wins. Good spot for NYG to get back on track.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Oracle

As you stated their secondary is weak which is bad news vs the Cardinals and I don't see them having the ability to pressure Warner which is the key to beating Arizona. The line provides no push for Forte and Cutler has been shaky.

With all this plus Arizona coming off a stunning loss to Carolina I just can't see the Bears holding up against a Cardinals team that will surely be motivated to play their best.
.

This. I was on the Panthers+ ml last week, and Zona ML when they played vs the Giants. Zona will lose to good defensive teams that can pressure and defend the pass well. The Bears haven't been able to do either lately. I expect a balanced Cards attack and would also lean towards the Cards tt over.

[Oracle]

Depth along the defensive line an issue now facing Steelers
Associated Press


PITTSBURGH -- The thin air in Denver isn't as much of a concern to the Steelers as their rapidly thinning defensive line.

The Steelers (5-2) already were without defensive end Aaron Smith, a premier run-stopper who's sidelined for the rest of the season with a torn right rotator cuff. Now they're missing his replacement, Travis Kirschke, who has a torn left calf muscle that could keep him out another couple of weeks. He was injured during a 27-17 victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 25.

One of the strengths of a Steelers defense that was the NFL's best the last two seasons is its depth, but that's all but vanished now that Smith and Kirschke are hurt. Now Pittsburgh must depend on two rookies and a player who was cut last month.

Welcome to the NFL, Ziggy Hood and Sunny Harris. Welcome back, Nick Eason.

Hood, a first-round draft pick, won't start against the Broncos (6-1) on Monday night, but he's expected to receive significant playing time because teams traditionally rotate linemen in Denver's high altitude. Eason, a former Broncos draft pick, will move from right defensive end, where he backs up Brett Keisel, to start at left defensive end. Harris is the other backup.

Only a month ago, Eason was let go so the Steelers could activate an extra running back. Suddenly, he is starting on the defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season.

"I was released the fourth game, and the next thing you know, I'm playing," Eason said Wednesday. "Now I'll be playing a lot more. My snaps have doubled in three weeks. It's amazing, but that's the life story in the NFL."

Harris, a sixth-round draft pick, has a similar story. He was released after training camp, only to re-sign two weeks ago after spending time on the Carolina Panthers' practice squad.

Because of the injuries, the Steelers must go into one of their biggest games of the season with only one experienced backup defensive lineman in nose tackle Chris Hoke, who plays behind Casey Hampton. Hoke can play defensive end, but it's likely he'll receive more playing time than usual in the middle as Hampton takes off some plays.

"We go through this every year," Keisel said. "Last year, I was out for a few games, and Aaron missed some games (in 2007). We have a lot of guys who know how to play."

Or at least the Steelers believe they know how to play.

Hood, a former star at Missouri, has taken a minimal number of snaps this season. He usually spends his practice weeks on the scout team that replicates the opposing defense.

"He's a tough guys to block on Wednesdays and Thursdays," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "At some point, he's going to be a tough guy to block on Sundays. We'll see when that happens."

Hood said it has been a lot to absorb as a rookie, keeping up on the Steelers' ever-changing defense while also learning a different style each week during practice.

"Each day, I see I'm somewhat getting better, not only mentally but physically as well," Hood said. "I believe I've taken the necessary steps to get better. When the starters need to take a breather, I'll be able to fill in until they get better and go 100 percent every snap."




Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press

Don't uderestimate the loss of Aaron Smith. He is one of the most unsung players in the league because he plays in the 34. I remember them losing him in 2007 and the defense was only a shell of itself especially against the run. Their defensive line is responsible for keeping the opponents offensive line clogged up so their outstanding but undersized linebackers can make plays. Without Smith the Denver O Line will get to the second level and blow some massive holes in the Steelers defense. Add in hard hitting Ryan Clark not playing and this defense will have issues this week and possibly longer.

[Oracle]

Mora sends powerful message to Seahawks: Don't give up
Associated Press


RENTON, Wash. -- Jim Mora is crafting more messages than wins right now.

The Seattle coach just released some veterans, including Edgerrin James, the NFL's active leading rusher. He promoted running back Louis Rankin, formerly released by the equally woeful Raiders, from the practice squad.

The message is clear: those who aren't producing had better start doing so when the Seahawks host the one-win Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Mora also gave notice to his flopping team last weekend when he left quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in for the entire blowout loss at Dallas -- even though the three-time Pro Bowl passer still has broken ribs and was crumpled on the Cowboys' turf in the third quarter after getting crunched in the chest.

"I think you send the wrong message to your football team if you pull him out," Mora said. "I'm not going to take Matt Hasselbeck out when we're down like that and there's probably very little chance that we're going to win. I'm not going to send that message to this football team or our fans."

Something similar worked in Mora's first season with Atlanta in 2004.

"We were 6-2, and we went to Kansas City. They were up 35-3 on us at halftime," Mora said. "And I went in and I told the team at halftime, I said, 'We are not punting. I don't care where the football is. We're going to go for two. We're going to try to block every punt. We absolutely will not give in.'

"And we got beat 56-10."

After the game, Mora got a call from his father, a former NFL coach who told his son: "Hey Jim, sometimes it's OK to punt."

"I'm trying to make a point here," Mora told his father. "My point is: we will not quit, we will not give in."

The following week, Mora's Falcons went to Denver. They fell behind 14-3 after one quarter.

"Came back to win (41-28)," he said, proudly. "I'm not saying that I'm a master psychologist or anything, but I do think that the fact that we took that stance at halftime of the Kansas City game created a mindset that helped us move forward. We went to the NFC championship that year. I think it's a little bit the same for me (here)."

The Seahawks (2-5) have lost five of their last six games, coming within 13 points of winning only once in that span. Injuries have cost 12 starters at least one game this season, including six-time All-Pro left tackle Walter Jones and three-time Pro Bowl linebacker Lofa Tatupu. Both are on injured reserve.

When he's not publicly saying so, big-money receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh is angrily gesturing to Hasselbeck that he wants the ball.

And last weekend, forgotten former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch had his first touchdown catch of the season. Branch, a subject of trade rumors last month, immediately ran up to a FOX television camera and barked: "This is what I do! If anyone wants me, come find me!"

Wednesday, Mora and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp said they have talked to Branch and to Houshmandzadeh this week and that all is well.

Branch has 15 catches in the five games for which he's been active. That's his fewest through five weeks in his career.

He tried to distance himself from Sunday's odd proclamation.

"What you all hear is not, you know what I'm saying, what's coming from me," he said. "I just want to win and I want to play.

"I've been accepting my role. Trust me, if I wanted to start something, I would have done it (in) minicamp. ... Regardless of what it sounded like I said, I want to finish my career here.

"The biggest thing is that we are 2-5. The guys are frustrated. Coaches are, too."

James passed Marcus Allen for 10th on the league's all-time rushing list last weekend, but was averaging just 2.7 yards per carry while playing roughly every third series.

Knapp said Rankin will now spell starter Julius Jones every few series, with Justin Forsett remaining the third-down back. Mora said Rankin will also get a chance to return kickoffs.

"Edgerrin came in here and did a wonderful job in the locker room. He's a wonderful person. He's a pro. He worked his tail off. Unfortunately, the results weren't what we wanted," Mora said.

"Rather than ask Edgerrin James, a man of his stature in this league, to be inactive and be relegated to a position to the scout team during the week, we felt the honorable thing would be to let him go."

Mora's many messages suggest James won't be the last to leave.

Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press

Add in a injured shoulder for Kevin Smith and the Seahawks keep looking better and better.

[The Mailman]

This is one of the best threads I've seen in a long time.

A bunch of guys exchanging info to help beat the spread.

Beauty!