Lets Talk Week 10

[hodown]

I'm trying to focus in on games where we can find some value, ie, a team plays like **** last week so all of the sudden this weeks line might be a little more friendly. Or, a team played well last week so this week the books are tacking on a few points, so here goes.

Dallas @ Green Bay +3
GB coming off an embarrassing loss @ TB and Dallas coming off a huge division win @ Philly. Although GB has been overvalued all season long and Dallas has been undervalued since the Denver game, I think we see a role-reversal here. Rodgers had 3 picks, they gave up a pick return and a punt return against TB. GB's defense has the better numbers and I think they step it up against Romo in this game and GB gets its must win at home.

[bigbag12]

This is also about the week when dogs begin to cover more anyways too.

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by hodown

I'm trying to focus in on games where we can find some value, ie, a team plays like **** last week so all of the sudden this weeks line might be a little more friendly. Or, a team played well last week so this week the books are tacking on a few points, so here goes.

Dallas @ Green Bay +3
GB coming off an embarrassing loss @ TB and Dallas coming off a huge division win @ Philly. Although GB has been overvalued all season long and Dallas has been undervalued since the Denver game, I think we see a role-reversal here. Rodgers had 3 picks, they gave up a pick return and a punt return against TB. GB's defense has the better numbers and I think they step it up against Romo in this game and GB gets its must win at home.

I think one major key in this game is GB being able to stop the Dallas pass rush and specifically Ware. If Rodgers has no time in the pocket, I don't know how GB can pull out the win. I mean, their line is absolutely horrendous. Teams like St Louis and Tampa that have absolutely no pass rush were still able to sack ARod about 5x each. Yes, you are right about this being a must-win game for them. They, like my Bears, are both 4-4. At this point, the division has been handed to Minnesota. However, looking at the Packers remaining schedule, I don't see them finishing above .500 and that's w/Rodgers surviving the whole campaign. He's taken some big shots already and sooner rather than later he might not be getting up from one of those shots.

[Reggie Hamlin]

This Greenbay Dallas game smells fishy but I have to agree with Coach Ditka
how will Greenbay's O-LINE stop this Dallas pass rush that seems to be getting better each week. Rodgers is good when he has time to throw it but he may resemble
a tackling dummy next week .

[Daws1089]

I'm not sure I would back GB, but it seems like everyone in the media and everything are annointing DAL as this great team now. They won one freakin game against a decent team, big deal. Also, its not like they dominated the eagles or anything, they won by 4 and it was a tightly played game. I just think a lot is being made out of that win at philly than there should be.

[Oracle]

Packers off a major upset loss, now home dogs against a Dallas team playing the second of back to back road games and in the middle of a division sandwich after winning a big game against the rival Eagles and the rival Redskins up next. I agree with Hodown here. The Packers will be wired and ready to play. And the Cowboys are the Cowboys, inconsistent, as soon as they look dominant they do something that makes you scratch your head and rethink it all. See Romo throwing a few picks against the very good Green Bay corners and Rodgers exploiting the Dallas pass defense that gives huge chunks of yardage.

[DukiesBaby]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Packers off a major upset loss, now home dogs against a Dallas team playing the second of back to back road games and in the middle of a division sandwich after winning a big game against the rival Eagles and the rival Redskins up next. I agree with Hodown here. The Packers will be wired and ready to play. And the Cowboys are the Cowboys, inconsistent, as soon as they look dominant they do something that makes you scratch your head and rethink it all. See Romo throwing a few picks against the very good Green Bay corners and Rodgers exploiting the Dallas pass defense that gives huge chunks of yardage.

since when is 6-2 inconsistent, along with a last second fg loss to nyg?

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by DukiesBaby

since when is 6-2 inconsistent, along with a last second fg loss to nyg?

Are they the defense that has shown up recently or the one that had zero sacks early in the season?

Is Romo the quarterback he has been the last few games or the guy who threw three picks in that Giants loss and has choked consistently in big games over the last few years?

Are they the team that almost lost to 0-4 Kansas City and were down 10-0 at half or the team that dismantled the Falcons?

In offering his thoughts on Seattle, receiver Roy Williams gave a rather frank assessment of the Cowboys.

"You don't know what team is going to show up,'' Williams said of the Seahawks. "They've blown some teams out then they've gotten beat.

"We're pretty much like them. We don't know what team is going to show up with us. But we've got a little streak going. We've just got to continue to ride this wave.''

[Reggie Hamlin]

Oracale I understand all of that but my question is will Greenbays O-Line all of a sudden be good and stop a cowboys d that has been very good the last 3 games

yes this is a trap game for the boys but greenbay seems to be going in the other direction while dallas seems to be on the right track. Arod has been sacked at least
38 times this year already who is going to stop Andre Ware ? I think he may be running for his life out there. The line is fishy and begging for Dallas money that scares me. I just think the Dallas front 4 is too much for Greenbay to handle .

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by Reggie Hamlin

Oracale I understand all of that but my question is will Greenbays O-Line all of a sudden be good and stop a cowboys d that has been very good the last 3 games

yes this is a trap game for the boys but greenbay seems to be going in the other direction while dallas seems to be on the right track. Arod has been sacked at least
38 times this year already who is going to stop Andre Ware ? I think he may be running for his life out there. The line is fishy and begging for Dallas money that scares me. I just think the Dallas front 4 is too much for Greenbay to handle .

You could very well be right there Reggie. I don't have much faith in their line either, that's why I took Tampa last week. For me it's the emotional element that pushes this game towards the Packers. I don't know if Dallas can keep up this level of play in back to back road games and in a division sandwich. They are coming off a huge win against their rival on the road.

On the other side the Packers have to be humiliated by their loss to Tampa Bay and this offensive line is taking the brunt of the heat from the media(well deserved too). I just see them playing at a higher level than Dallas in this spot especially as home dogs at Lambeau. Don't see that often. How is one loss Minnesota a dog at Green Bay but Dallas is a road favorite?

I would go with the points here but I totally agree with where you are coming from, they have stunk along the line and if they don't pick up their play and Dallas maintains the level they've been playing at defensively than Rodgers will be running for his life.

[Badger]

Since it seems to be the main topic of discussion in here this week, let me share this with all of you jakes:

Offense clears the air - JSOnline

This has become THEE game for the Packers.

After reading the article my take was why the f--k did it take so long for them to get to this point.

Also, the rookie TJ Lang is set to start at right tackle. Not sure that means squat.

As Oracle can back me up, I thought the Pack was a cinch last week. Boy was I way wrong. I gotta take off my homer glasses. Maybe they've burned me enough, but I think the Cowboys are the better team and everyone is overrating the Pack here.

Plus, don't forget that Romo is a Wisconsin boy. Born down the road in Burlington. Coming home for the first time as a starter. He's gonna be jacked up playing in front of his family and friends. The whole state almost **** when he brought Jessica Simpson up here last summer, with articles in the paper chronicling their every move while they were here.

How will he respond to that is another factor to consider.

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by Badger

Since it seems to be the main topic of discussion in here this week, let me share this with all of you jakes:

Offense clears the air - JSOnline

This has become THEE game for the Packers.

After reading the article my take was why the f--k did it take so long for them to get to this point.

Also, the rookie TJ Lang is set to start at right tackle. Not sure that means squat.

As Oracle can back me up, I thought the Pack was a cinch last week. Boy was I way wrong. I gotta take off my homer glasses. Maybe they've burned me enough, but I think the Cowboys are the better team and everyone is overrating the Pack here.

Plus, don't forget that Romo is a Wisconsin boy. Born down the road in Burlington. Coming home for the first time as a starter. He's gonna be jacked up playing in front of his family and friends. The whole state almost **** when he brought Jessica Simpson up here last summer, with articles in the paper chronicling their every move while they were here.

How will he respond to that is another factor to consider.

Thanks for the article Badger. That makes me lean even more towards the Packers. I know that with all things equal the Cowboys would probably win this game, just like last week the Packers would normally beat Tampa. But all things are not equal. These two teams are on opposite sides emotionally. One is playing back to back on the road and one is coming home with their tail between their legs. These NFL players have alot of pride(at least 99%). And if Green Bay doesn't bring their A game here then they will not bring it for the rest of the season. There's no number that can be assigned to a games emotions. Look at the Cardinals last week after being humiliated. May not work with just plain bad teams but Green Bay is not as bad as they looked last week just like Arizona wasn't as bad as they looked against the Panthers. Does that mean Green Bay is a lock? No. They could get bombed but I don't think it will happen.

[rollin in it]

I would be cautious with the Packers. I am not sure they have covered against a decent team all year, and Dallas qualifies as more than that. There is a trend that the Packers get too much credit by the bookmakers, and now last week they got beat by a winless Bucs team.

Problem is, the Dallas pash rush is going to eat Rogers for breakfast. Dallas is more physical and tougher than Green Bay. Not sure I am going to touch this game, but if I do, I am taking Dallas over the ALWAYS overrated Packers.

[Bacon]

I like the Jets this week. Jacksonville who almost blew the game against the Chiefs and have to go up north and play a team off a bye with a strong defense. The Jets D is ranked #2 by yards and #2 by DVOA. I only fear the Sanchize could create 6 or so turnovers and make this game far closer then it should be. The Jets do have a productive ground attack though and Jacksonville's defense is deplorable so there is no reason the game should be on his shoulders.

[hodown]

GB's o-line may not be good but in the NFL I like to play good situational spots and this is one. If we're going to say Team A is better than Team B so they're going to cover, then faves would cover every game. But it's the NFL and atleast 20 teams are capable, especially at home, of pulling off an upset. Hell, the Bears beat Pitt at home earlier this year and they look like absolute ****, so anything can happen.

Cinci @ Pitt -7
Pick the winner here. Pitt coming in off a short week hurts, but I don't think they can afford to lose two games to Cinci. Should be another emotionally charged game and I like the home team. They looked damn good in the second half of the Denver game, and the books are making you pay to take -7 but I'll bite.