What is the best bet tonight?

[daft_picks]

Two brutal half point losses yesterday left me breaking just about even on the day versus up 3 units, but what are you gonna do? I'm looking to rebound tonight AND come up with the best pick for my MNF pool I do with a group of friends.

For anyone who cares to respond, what do you like as the BEST bet on tonight's MNF matchup?

Ravens -12 / Browns +12
Over 39 / Under 39

Lines taken from betus, my lean is to the Under and Baltimore, probably strongest on the under. Feel free to post your strongest lean and we'll see if we can get a good consensus for tonight's best pick!

[hodown]

I'm on Cleveland +11.

Cleveland is a dead dog but I'll side with the books on Monday nights. Stiff gave some good info on double-digit homedawgs coming off byes, I'll make a small play and roll with it tonight.

[Oracle]

I know the homedog off the bye system, I know that the Browns are a Monday Night home dog, and I know they are a double digit division dog but no matter how I try I can't see how Cleveland does anything in this game. Baltimore is weak against the pass but who is Cleveland's quarterback, Brady Quinn with his 62.1 passer rating and his 6 for 31 thrid down percentage. Baltimore desperately needs this game to stay alive in the playoff picture and they get Ngata back who will stiffen their run defense. Baltimore will try to run and the Browns are giving up an average of 170.5 yards a game on the ground. Plus they are now missing their leading tackler from this year and last. Both inside linebackers D'Qwell Jackson and Eric Barton will not play. Ray Rice is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. This looks really bad because once they get the run going Flacco will pound their secondary down the field. The Ravens will control this game and slowly blacktop the Brown's defense who will be on the field for the majority of the game because their offense cannot put together drives. I'm the first to say emotion is huge in football but I think this Browns team knows they are beaten before they even take the field. 99.9% of the time I'd be on the Browns in this spot and I may kick myself for not being on them later but as of right now I'm on the Ravens.

[daft_picks]

I really just can't pick a side, but I have rethought things and decided to play the over.

OVER 39 0.5 units

Luck to all tonight!

[matt71211]

Originally Posted by Oracle

I know the homedog off the bye system, I know that the Browns are a Monday Night home dog, and I know they are a double digit division dog but no matter how I try I can't see how Cleveland does anything in this game. Baltimore is weak against the pass but who is Cleveland's quarterback, Brady Quinn with his 62.1 passer rating and his 6 for 31 thrid down percentage. Baltimore desperately needs this game to stay alive in the playoff picture and they get Ngata back who will stiffen their run defense.

See the problem with this line of thought is that while the Ravens need a win they don't need to win by 11. The verdict isn't out on just how good this Raven's team is and they may very well only be the 3rd best team in their division. 11 points is a hefty line to lay on the road for a team that is only 4-4. Brady Quinn is back as the starter, don't you think he wants to play to keep that role? Do you think Cleveland wants to get booed off its own field on national television?

This becomes an argument of raw sports statistics which tell you Baltimore is much better then Cleveland and an argument, which has been already mentioned in this thread of betting angles in this spot.

Me personally? I see 90% on the Ravens here.. the line holding at 11... the oddsmakers are the oddsmakers.. they wouldn't be in business if these winners were that easy.

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by matt71211

See the problem with this line of thought is that while the Ravens need a win they don't need to win by 11. The verdict isn't out on just how good this Raven's team is and they may very well only be the 3rd best team in their division. 11 points is a hefty line to lay on the road for a team that is only 4-4. Brady Quinn is back as the starter, don't you think he wants to play to keep that role? Do you think Cleveland wants to get booed off its own field on national television?

This becomes an argument of raw sports statistics which tell you Baltimore is much better then Cleveland and an argument, which has been already mentioned in this thread of betting angles in this spot.

Me personally? I see 90% on the Ravens here.. the line holding at 11... the oddsmakers are the oddsmakers.. they wouldn't be in business if these winners were that easy.

I agree with you 99% of the time on this. Had Green Bay yesterday and Tampa the week before but those two teams were playing teams with weaknesses and had the ability to exploit those weaknesses. And both of those two teams opponents were heading for emotional letdowns. This is different tonight. Baltimore is not headed for an emotional letdown in fact they are heading for pounding the hell out of somebody and what better team than the Browns? Don't get me wrong I know the angles and usually follow them and stats are definitely not always the story but this is truly a mismatch and the Browns don't have the ability to exploit a high school teams weaknesses let alone a team that is in desperate need of a win and the much better team. Fading the public is a good way to go but not perfect. Do I like being on the same side as the public? No, not really but I'm not going to change a play based solely on that.

Most days you'd see me all over the dog in this spot but not this team against this opponent. Either way good luck to you tonight and I don't disagree with what your saying.

[matt71211]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Most days you'd see me all over the dog in this spot but not this team against this opponent. Either way good luck to you tonight and I don't disagree with what your saying.

Nor do I disagree with you. GL.

[AARONBESTPICK]

I SEE THE RAVEN WIN TONIGHT BUT NOT COVERING THEIR DOUBLE DIGITS SPREADS HERE. NO WAY, AND TO MANY PUBLIC BETTING ARE ON THE RAVEN SIDE. THAT IS THE MORE REASON I LEAN ON THE BROWN

[Stifler's Mom]

I do not believe you can statistically handicap the advantage of having a week off to get healthy and having 2 weeks to prepare.

Nor do I believe you can handicap the motivation to not get embarrassed on mnf in your home stadium, especially in such a situation.

Plus I don't think the Raisins are really even all that good. I'm hearing a lot about how bad the Browns are, but what exactly have the the Raisins done this year to justify a double digit road fave line against anyone? It seems that point is being overlooked. I mean this isn't exactly the Patriots, Colts, Saints, etc here as a big fave. Its the 4-4 Baltimore Raisins who I think its safe to say have really not been an impressive team this year to say the least.

To me, a lot of what I'm reading seems to be pointing to this all coming down to the old "just go against the ****ty team" philosophy, not giving any solid reasons the Raisins should win by more than the spread other than that the Browns suck, which imo is not the worlds strongest argument.

GL which ever way anyone chooses to go. Just seemed like a good place to add my 2 cents.

[Z Zycho]

Teams the Ravens have lost to this year: Cinci, Minnesotta (shouldn't have been a loss), and N.E. They are much better than their 4-4 record indicates, but that doesn't mean they will win by 11 points. The OVER in this situation seems ideal. If the Browns can put up even double digits against the Ravens, I feel it will easily be over 39 points.

[Underdog88]

Agree about the strength of opponents Balty has faced Zycho. I do think the Ravens are capable of blowing out bad teams ie Browns.

[Underdog88]

This game is fugly

[matt71211]

All I know is i'm glad I havent wagered on the over.. I think theyve punted from midfield 7 times

[Underdog88]

i did

[matt71211]

Wow if thats a penalty we might as well put a pair of flags on the QB's waist.