Lets Talk Week 12

[hodown]

Still going with the "motivation" theme for this week. Also look for some slightly inflated lines due to perception of certain teams. Think GB fit the mold well last week. The first two are my favorite, I also like the remaining three. Buf/Jax needs discussion

Tennessee @ Houston -4.5
Houston coming off a bye, still in the playoff picture. Tenn would probably need to win out to have a shot, probably not likely. Both teams have been playing well of late, Tenn winning 3 in a row and Hou coming off a tough loss at Indy. There's a natural dislike for Tenn amongst Houston fans due to the move several years ago, and Tenn is talked about as much on talk radio in Houston as the Texans are. I see a well rested team, in primetime, against a divisional rival, in a must-win game, giving only 4.5 to a team that has played better of late, albeit against teams that aren't very good. It's a pick the winner situation, and I think the Texans get it done here, mainly due to improved defensive play as of late.

Atlanta @ NY Giants -6.5
NYG burned me against SD in a similar spot, but I too like them coming off the bye at home against a Falcons team that might be slightly overrated. The NFC East is still available, and the Giants currently own the tiebreaker over Dallas, and if they beat them at home later in the year they will continue to own it. Atlanta's defense has been less than impressive and I think the Giants can put up some points against them, too many for Atlanta to run them down, especially if Turner doesn't play. No matter, I like NYG in the pick the winner spot.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore +1
Baltimore needs it alot more than Indy does, they are at home, and the defense has looked better in its last 3 games. Indy has squeaked out 3 in a row now, I just think they're run comes to an end this week. Indy is beat up defensively, I think both teams will move it, but imo Balt comes up with a few more stops defensively than Indy and moves to 6-4.

Philadelphia @ Chicago +3
Both teams need it in the worst way, line is a little inflated imo. Primetime game, Bears have been an absolute disaster the last five weeks, only win coming against an even bigger disaster in Cleveland. This line tells me that all the public focus is on the Bears defensive meltdown against Arizona and Cutler's meltdown against SF. The defense is beat up and mediocre, not as bad as their performance against Cinci and Arizona, but not good. Cutler is a pick machine, but I got to think he takes a little better care of the ball here, especially in the redzone. If Westbrook doesn't play this makes them more one dimensional imo, and what has Philly done in recent weeks to deserve a fg favorite on the road against a team that is 3-1 at home? The Bear players like Lovie for some reason, Tommie Harris has been quoted as saying he wants to turn it around for Lovie, and I don't think the Bears roll over at Soldier Field in front of a national audience AGAIN. I'm a Bear fan, I think they get it done Sunday night, and they perform just good enough to not make the playoffs this year, AGAIN.

San Diego @ Denver NO LINE
Provided it's pick the winner, I like SD. Denver's defense giving up 27 ppg in their last four, I like SD with or without Orton. Denver going for the sweep but moving in the wrong direction, SD playing well as of late. I'm sure the books are aware of this and SD might be the public play, but both teams need the win bad, and I'm going with the QB I can trust.

Buffalo +9 @ Jacksonville
Jax is 0-3 as a fave this year, Buffalo is 3-0 as a dog of 7 or more this year, 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming to NE the first game of the year. Buf off the firing of Jauron, not sure how the players react. I'm not sold on this play, but it seems like Jax always lets up as a heavy fave, but I did want to start some discussion on this play, is their any value in Buffalo here???


Thoughts on these or any other games...?

[Bacon]

Agree with you on Houston, they should be able to keep scoring on Tennessee, but Chris Johnson is scary enough that he could win games on his own.

Agree on San Diego. If you say any of Chris Simms last week you were probably as horrified as I was. The Denver O became a complete dud as soon as Orton came out.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by hodown

Indianapolis @ Baltimore +1
Baltimore needs it alot more than Indy does, they are at home, and the defense has looked better in its last 3 games. Indy has squeaked out 3 in a row now, I just think they're run comes to an end this week. Indy is beat up defensively, I think both teams will move it, but imo Balt comes up with a few more stops defensively than Indy and moves to 6-4.

I totally disagree with the Ravens play. I'm sure it will be on many contarian & dog player's cards this week, but I think the Colts win this game convincingly. The Ravens may need it more, but that certainly doesn't mean they will get it. The offense looked like absolute trash vs the Browns. The D imo looked better than it really is because they faced one of the worst offenses in the league. I just don't see what warrants a play against the best team in the AFC (arguably) the best QB ever (I don't think it's even close) at a pick em. I just think there will be better opportunities to fade Indy (like when they are laying dd @ home vs Titans). Leaning heavy on the Colts.

The AFC North is crazy. I could see the Ravens losing two more games finishing 10-6 and coming in third. Unless the Bengals completely implode, they are getting the division. IMO they are the second best team in the AFC behind Indy.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by hodown

Tennessee @ Houston -4.5
Houston coming off a bye, still in the playoff picture. Tenn would probably need to win out to have a shot, probably not likely. Both teams have been playing well of late, Tenn winning 3 in a row and Hou coming off a tough loss at Indy. There's a natural dislike for Tenn amongst Houston fans due to the move several years ago, and Tenn is talked about as much on talk radio in Houston as the Texans are. I see a well rested team, in primetime, against a divisional rival, in a must-win game, giving only 4.5 to a team that has played better of late, albeit against teams that aren't very good. It's a pick the winner situation, and I think the Texans get it done here, mainly due to improved defensive play as of late.

I think the Titans win. Revenge spot after the Texans edged out the Titans earlier this season. Houston's d IMO is still bad. They definitely plyed up to Indy, but any team that has rushed for over 20 carries this season has ran the fuck over them.

Jets- 190 2 tds

Titans- 240 2 tds

Jaguars- 185 3 tds


I don't see them stopping the run game once again, so I can't side with the Texans here. Shaub would have to throw all over them and the D would have to be able to shut down the run- just not likely. With Vince back there, the Titans have no choice but to run. Would lean Titans tt over, Titans+pts and ML.

[Underdog88]

For tonight I'm leaning heavily on the Fins. IMO too much stock is being put into the loss of Ronnie Brown (now for the season). He was an integral part of the wildcat, but players have emerged for miami. IMO we will see them in a 2 te set as both Haynes and Sperry played well last game. Ricky williams can still run guys. Maybe more Pat White but I wouldn't be too sure of that, as Henne has been playing well and producing in the short passing game. Carolina still can't stop the run and are facing a team that won't abandon the run. I would think Miami still rushes for 160+ and they take it su....

[Underdog88]

Statistically the Dolphins and Panthers are almost identical in rushing offense. The Dolphins are #7 in NFL run D, allowing 97 3.7 ypc. Tha Panthers are #25 allowing 128 and 4.6 ypc. The Panthers have the better pass D allowing 186 while the Fins allow 239 and are ranked #27. However both have allowed 11 tds through the air. Difference in game will be who is more effective on the ground and as always, turnovers. I think the only reason Carolina is favored is because they are at home, and if Ronnie Brown wasn't hurt and the Panthers didn't just beat the Falcons, nobody would want top play them. Those factors are already built into the line, so I think the advantage goes to Miami...




Other leans this week


Patriots TT over- Pats home and off a loss, you can bet they are gonna be looking to pile it on. Don't forget the 16-9 in all actuality blowout loss @NYJ earlier in the season. Like Belichek needs any more motivation. The Jets defense is not what everyone thought it would be, and the Pats offense is playing at the top of their game. Pats off a loss this season put up 26 vs Atlanta and 59 vs Titans. I don't think it's a stretch to see them break 30 vs the Jets in this spot. My only concern is the weather here, haven't even checked it yet. I would also think that (though I never play them) NE in a teaser is just about as good a play as I see on the board.


Bills/Jags over- Bills can't stop the run, and get blown out 2ndh because of it. Jax-pts 4th quarter is probably a winning wager. Fading the Bills in the 4thq would have been a jackpot this season. At the same time the Jags D is not that good and have allowed more pts than the Bills have. Not sure how Buffalo reacts to the Jauron firing, news about changing direction next season etc. The guys who care will probably look to show they deserve a roster spot. At the same time I could see them losing by 10. IMO over is the best option....

Saints/Bucs over- Maybe even Bucs+ pts and tt over. Saints keep turning the ball over, and some day it will bite them in the ass. Someday lol.

[Oracle]

Tennessee @ Houston -4.5
Houston coming off a bye, still in the playoff picture. Tenn would probably need to win out to have a shot, probably not likely. Both teams have been playing well of late, Tenn winning 3 in a row and Hou coming off a tough loss at Indy. There's a natural dislike for Tenn amongst Houston fans due to the move several years ago, and Tenn is talked about as much on talk radio in Houston as the Texans are. I see a well rested team, in primetime, against a divisional rival, in a must-win game, giving only 4.5 to a team that has played better of late, albeit against teams that aren't very good. It's a pick the winner situation, and I think the Texans get it done here, mainly due to improved defensive play as of late.

I like this one. The Titans got smoked through the first six weeks because they couldn't defend the pass. The last three weeks (all of their wins ) they got teams in San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Buffalo that couldn't exploit their pass defense. Houston on the other hand is built to take advantage of this huge weakness. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson will have a field day on this team in the air. Schaub threw for 357 yds and four touchdowns in their fist meeting and Andre johnson had 149 yds and two touchdowns at Tennessee. The Houston run defense has improved throughout the year and they will force the Titans to do a little more than hand the ball to Chris Johnson. Vince Young has yet to be forced into the position of playing from behind and having to throw the ball. Against the Texans he will be forced to throw if the Titans have a prayer of keeping pace with the high powered Houston offense.

[Oracle]

Saints/Bucs over- Maybe even Bucs+ pts and tt over. Saints keep turning the ball over, and some day it will bite them in the ass. Someday lol.

Like Tampa this week. The Saints are primed to be beat. The Bucs may not win outright but they will be in this game. 11.5 is too much.

[Underdog88]

Regarding the Saints, I agree but at the same time know it's a wager I very well could regret making... still debating how I will play that game. Game over a likely option

Originally Posted by Underdog88

For tonight I'm leaning heavily on the Fins. IMO too much stock is being put into the loss of Ronnie Brown (now for the season). He was an integral part of the wildcat, but players have emerged for miami. IMO we will see them in a 2 te set as both Haynes and Sperry played well last game. Ricky williams can still run guys. Maybe more Pat White but I wouldn't be too sure of that, as Henne has been playing well and producing in the short passing game. Carolina still can't stop the run and are facing a team that won't abandon the run. I would think Miami still rushes for 160+ and they take it su....

[Oracle]

Just a quick rundown as to what I have this Sunday's games lined at right now. Consider them my early lines. This is in no way my plays for the weekend, just one of many tools that I use to cap the games. Thought it might spark some conversation though.

Baltimore -2 Indianapolis
Dallas -8 Washington
Detroit -12 Cleveland
Green Bay -7 San Francisco
Jacksonville -5 Buffalo
Pittsburgh -5 Kansas City
Minnesota -11 Seattle
NY Giants -6 Atlanta
New Orleans -13 Tampa Bay
Arizona -12 St. Louis
San Diego -4 Denver
New England -6 NY Jets
Cincinnati -9 Oakland
Philadelphia -2 Chicago
Houston -5 Tennessee


All lines will be further adjusted tonight and tomorrow. Some drastically others hardly at all. Still many factors to put into these numbers.

[hodown]

Are these your predictions for what the lines we're going to be, or what you think they should be?

[Oracle]

Originally Posted by hodown

Are these your predictions for what the lines we're going to be, or what you think they should be?

This is my starting point Hodown, so I guess you can say what they were going to be. Many are pretty close a few are off but most will change as I add in all the other elements I use(emotional, situational, injuries, weather, and alot of matchup factors). These are purely stats and there is another set of statistical generated lines that I use and compare. Never use any one single factor, try to get as many factors as possible working for one team to make them a play. The ones that come out with big differences will be looked at hard though. Like Detroit, they have a good chance of being a play for me between this and a few other factors that are falling in their favor.

[Sparky3604]

Buffalo +9 @ Jacksonville
Jax is 0-3 as a fave this year, Buffalo is 3-0 as a dog of 7 or more this year, 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming to NE the first game of the year. Buf off the firing of Jauron, not sure how the players react. I'm not sold on this play, but it seems like Jax always lets up as a heavy fave, but I did want to start some discussion on this play, is their any value in Buffalo here???

I don't see a whole lot of value in either side here. Buffalo is in a state of total chaos right now but I don't have much faith in Jacksonville with this big number. It looks like rain and lots of it in Jacksonville for this game. Niether team has a great offense and I think Jacksonville keeps it on the ground with Jones-Drew. I'm looking for a low scoring nasty, grind-it-out type game. The total is at 42.5 right now and I'm seriously thinking about the under.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Oracle

Detroit -12 Cleveland

just messing with ya but that looks funny as hell