Oracle's Thursday Night Week 11

[Oracle]

YTD: 16-11 / +13.90 units

Thursday night

Miami +3 +115 Bookmaker

Write up soon.

Good Luck

[Oracle]

Thursday Night

Miami At Carolina
Miami +3 +115 Bookmaker

With both teams sitting at 4-5 on the season this game will probably eliminate the loser from a shot at the playoffs while giving the winner a hope of still qualifying. Both started the season off slow at 0-3 but both have won 4 of their last 6 sparking hope in both cities. Both clubs rely heavily on running the ball, leaving their inconsistent quarterbacks to not lose the game for them. Delhomme was a turnover machine early in the year while Henne has done well at protecting the ball since taking over for Chad Pennington. Injuries have depleted both running games with Miami losing Ronnie Brown for the year and Carolina probably going without Jonathan Stewart tonight.

With both teams planning on "smashmouthing" the other this game will be won or lost in the trenches. This favors the Dolphins who are much better defensively against the run and who consistently get pressure on the quarterback. This should be more evident tonight with the return of Joey Porter, who will be motivated after being benched last week. The real problem for Carolina here is the loss of Pro Bowl caliber LT Jordan Gross. Gross left last weeks game against Atlanta and will be out for the year with a broken ankle. LG Travelle Wharton moved into the LT position where he has experience but will not come close to providing the run blocking capability or pass protection the Panthers have become accustomed to under Gross. Another huge issue here will be Wharton's replacement at left guard. Mackenzy Bernadeau slides into this spot having never started in a NFL game. The Panthers depend on the run and with a rookie in the middle facing monster Miami nose tackle Jason Ferguson. Look for the holes to be far and few in between for the Panthers running game against Miami's 7th ranked rush defense and if they are forced to throw Delhomme will have Joey Porter coming off the edge and in his kitchen all night. Not good for a guy who is known to throw to the wrong team.

Offensively the loss of Brown will definitely hurt the Dolphins especially in their Widcat formation but they did draft Pat White for specifically this formation and have slowly been incorporating him into the system all year. Look for White to be a big part of what Miami does tonight. The Panthers also have a major issue here. Not only are they ranked near the bottom in defending the run but they also lost linebacker Thomas Davis earlier this month to an ACL. Davis was having a career year and his weak side linebacker position is a critical one in the Carolina defense. The Panthers superstar defensive lineman Julius Peppers is also having problems with a broken hand that he has been playing with but has relegated him to mostly just pass rushing downs. The Dolphins are inconsistent through the air but Miami's rushing attack against the Panthers 25th rush defense should keep Carolina off Henne and allow him to deal with third and manageable situations for the majority of the night.

I have this lined at Miami -2. So in my opinion the wrong team is spotted and after looking in depth at both teams I agree with the thought of Miami being favored. It's pretty simple neither team wants to put the game in the hands of their quarterback. Miami's defense is much better at stopping the run than Carolina and with the injuries up front to the Panthers this should be even more magnified. This puts the game squarely in the hands of Jake Delhomme who will be under pressure all night and is prone to throwing interceptions in bunches.

Taking the Dolphins plus the 3 and would not be afraid to take them on the moneyline. The under also has good value here and may very well be an addition to my plays before the night is out.


Good Luck

[Oracle]

Adding

Under 42 MIA/CAR 42 -110 Bookmaker


Adding usually backfires on me so we'll see how it goes here.

[Oracle]

Nice night hitting both. 2-0 / +6.45 units on the night.

YTD: 18-11 / +20.35

[Underdog88]

Good calls

[maddoggie]

nice hits...

[Oracle]

Thanks guys. It's nice when things go as planned.