Daft week 13

[daft_picks]

Almost all I can think about is the incoming Titans/Colts matchup, but I do have some plays for the thursday game which I won't even be able to watch cause I'll be on a plane. That might be a good thing.

37 is a low total but I think this game goes under. These teams know each other well, have both been playing good defense throughout the season but have questionable offenses. What I'm most worried about is defensive TD's pushing this total over, and the Bills did blow up last weekend but that was against Miami and they're falling apart. I think the Jets will get it done here with a healthy dose of Thomas Jones, if they can shut down Fred Jackson and force Fitzpatrick to beat them I think they will win.

Jets/Bills OVER 37 - 1 unit
Jets -3 - 0.5 units

Will either team score 3 unanswered times? NO (+120) - 0.5 to win 0.6 units
Will there be a score in the first 6.5 minutes? NO (-115) - to win 0.5 units

BOL whichever way you go

[daft_picks]

2-2 +0.425 units on Thursday. Should have laid off the props. Couple plays in already, more to come:

1.5 unit play:
Jags team total OVER 23 - I was going to bet the Jags as the dog but I like the team total play even more because I don't have to worry about their defense. MJD should run well against the Texans, look for the Jags to get back on track offensively. They scored 31 against the Texans last time and that was while playing away, one of the few away games they actually played well in.

1 unit plays:
Philly -5.5 - Most injury filled game of the week, I think it will favor the Eagles. They are a pass first team and that is Atlanta's biggest weakness. Picking the winner.
Denver/KC OVER 39 - KC just plays in high scoring games period, only thing that scares me is a KC meltdown since I am also playing them ATS...
Chiefs +7 - I just have a good feeling about the Chiefs here, they are scrappier than given credit for and I know Denver is good but they're not that good. This line was shady from the get go and has risen a ton at my book, a TD is too much to lay in this contest.


1/2 unit plays:
Rams +9.5 - I know the Rams are bad, but how in the hell are the Bears laying nearly double digits to anyone after the way the have played? The Rams kept it within 5 against the Saints! Only thing that worries me is the snow...
Cards +4 (EVEN) - WTF is up with this line? I think betus is giving me some shady pointspreads but I'll take this one. I think the cards need this one way more than the Vikings and would not be surprised if they won it. I think Warner is due for a big day after being sat out.
Titans +6.5 - All I have to say is...TITAN UP!!
Titans/Colts UNDER 46 - I've seen this game before, but it will be closer this time. Harder fought, points will not be as easy to come by as some may think. 23-20 Titans I pray

Safety tease: 0.55 to win 0.5 units
Colts -0.5
Saints -4.5

Dream tease: 0.5 to win 3 units
Chiefs Total O 32½
Titans +13
Lions +19½
St Louis Rams +16
Giants Total O 39
Ravens +10

Titans +6.5 + UNDER 46 - 0.5 to win 1.3 units

Dream parlay: 0.4 to win 10.1 units
Kansas City Chiefs +210
Tennessee Titans +220
Baltimore Ravens +165

This worked last week, playing the same prop in 3 games hope to hit 2 and profit: Will there be a team that scores 3 unanswered times? Bet 1/2 unit on NO in all games.
Jags/Texans +125
Falcons/Eagles +160
Ravens/Packers +140

Whatever you play BOL!

GO TITANS!!

[daft_picks]

Titans not getting it done. 2 Redzone trips and 0 points...bad.

Add:

Dallas -1 - 1/2 unit

[daft_picks]

Well I over thought my big play and therefore got a push, oh well. A pretty even day as per usual but have a nice teaser with a potential 3 unit win pending tomorrow night. 6-8-1 -0.15 units including all plays today, making me 8-10-1 +0.275 units this week If only the Titans had won I'd be up a more decent amount.

With a 3 unit win pending on Ravens +10 tomorrow I'm going to go ahead and make a hedge/possible middle play on GB.

Packers -3.5 - 1 unit

I hate the Ravens so I really hope they do lose, ideally by 4-10 points. Either way I will come out of this week positive so that's fine by me.

Hope everyone had a great Sunday, I am really looking forward to tomorrow's game actually.

[daft_picks]

Adding half a unit to GB plus a fantasy hedge prop. I need flacco to score 12 or more points tonight and I'm in the playoffs. Ideally I can win the prop and still make it in, if it loses then I'm golden. Flacco has not thrown for 2 TDs since week 6. So to sum everything up:

Packers -3.5 - 1.5 units
Teaser: Chiefs Total O 32½ / Titans +13 / Lions +19½ / Rams +16 / Giants Total O 39 / Ravens +10 (pending) - 0.5 to win 3 units
Joe Flacco passing TD's UNDER 1½ (-165) - 1.32 to win 0.8 units

Best case: Net +5.3 units.
Worst case: Lose -.32 units and make it to fantasy playoffs!

Go pack!

[daft_picks]

Flacco is killing me!!

2ndH UNDER 20 (EVEN) - 1/2 unit