***Week 15 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Discussions this season have been seriously lacking, I will take some blame for not contributing as much. Been a crazy year for me, but it's time to finish strong. It's getting down to must win situations for many teams, but that doesn't mean they win.....



Homedogs first


Jaguars vs Colts

Bills+7 vs Pats

Rams+??? vs Texans

Lions+??? vs Zona

Panthers+7 vs Minny

Redskins+3 vs Giants



Waiting to see what that Jags line will be. Been backing Indy for the past 5 weeks and they have been good to me, but I would be very wary here. Jags let me down big time vs Miami, and were completely ineffective offensively. I'm not sure the Colts will be able to contain Jones-Drew as well as the Fins did. Jaguars now likely need to win out to make the playoffs, but I believe hold the best conference record among wildcard teams. I would think they come out fired up after their 5 game home win streak just got snapped. I would expect a shorter line this week as the Colts really have nothing to play for- save the undefeated season. I get the feeling that this will be a 3.5 or so, and you'll likely need a Jags su win to cover.


The Bills at home catching 7 after a su win @ KC. Though they won, they looked pretty bad doing so. Fitz was ineffective as hell. In reality, KC should have won the game, Chambers dropped a gimme pass that would have put them into scoring position for the win. The Patriots are off a rather uninspiring win themselves, where the Panthers did a great job shutting down the offense. It's obvious that the Pats team is not what it once was, but i do think they are still light years ahead of the Bills team that will be taking the field on Sunday. The Pats now need to keep the lead in the AFC East, this is a crucial game to them IMO. After being shut down, I am very leery of MR Moss. He has killed the Bills ever since he came to NE, and we don't have the secondary to stop him and Welker (IMO top 5 wr in the game). How the hell is Welker always open? Buffalo will need to have an effective run game, and control TOP if they want to be in this one. Not sure which Fitz plays sunday. Bills do have revenge angle bvut that can only take you so far....

I really haven't watched enough of the Rams to make too many observations, but I don't think I want to back them ever. The Texans are such a jeckyll/Hyde team, I don't trust them at all. Houston will likely be laying 7, I'll leave this one to someone else to talk about....



Let me start by saying I love Arizona. My season has been saved by Zona plays, been wrong one time (blowout loss vs Indy) and have hit 7 dog MLs backing/fading them. Arizona off a loss to SF, suddenly they pretty much only have a one game lead over SF (as SF would hold the tie breaker if they ended up with identical records). Zona @DET, vs STL then vs GB. SF @Philly, vs DET, @STL so really Zona would have to have an epic choke to lose the division. I don't think that happens at all. Detroit is just what the doctor ordered for Arizona's offense, which couldn't hold on to the ball last night. I would think they return to form vs a Lions D that can't stop anyone. After all the fumbles, I'm not sure if Hightower or Wells will get more touches, but either way I think they run all over Detroit. Looking at Arizona's season they have fared well after a loss, and I would have a strong lean to the over as well. This offense is too high powered to not produce after an embarrassing 9 pt effort. Lean Zona-pts, but bigger lean to team total over.


The Panthers are off a loss @NE, where the defense showed up but the offense couldn't do dick. Despite forcing 3 turnovers the Panthers couldn't put points up. One reason was their abysmal 3-13 on 3rd down. Another could be the fact that they only attempted 24 rushes! Really? This is a team that's having serious qb issues, has arguably the most talented rb tandem, and they run the ball just 24 times? They averaged over 5 ypc too. I don't understand the playcalling there, but running the ball is going to be tough vs Minny this week. One thing I will say is that Minny has played a cupcake road schedule. Only tough teams were @GB, @Zona , @Pitt and they went 1-2 those games. I'm not too sure I would back a team-7 on the road with those results. Also really do the Vikings have much to play for?


The Skins overcame what I thought could be a letdown spot last week by beating Oakland rather convincingly. This coming off 3 straight losses of 3 pts or less. The Giants lost in a shootout to Philly. How do you lay chalk with a team on the road that has beaten two teams all season with a winning record? Lean Skins, but you'll need a su win to cover in all liklihood, which the Skins have had trouble doing in close games all season....

[Underdog88]

Boys/Saints- This should be a great game to watch. Dallas has beaten 1 team with a winning record, so the idea of them coming in and beating the Saints is lost on me. I know the Saints have been playing tight games, but this could be a blowout. Ware out would make the Boys an even scarier wager. Initial lean to the over, as the Saints should be able to score and they haven't been playing great defense.....

[Daws1089]

Steelers -1

Is this the week they put together a solid game? Everyone knows about them sucking ass now as its gone on for 5 games now, but why are they still favored over a good team? The books have been making a killing on the steelers lately with everyone thinking this will be the week they get back on track (myself inclued), but man they just aren't good. So are the books putting this line out there again hoping to get steelers money again and collect with green bay or is the line right with GB's road woes and the books are looking to collect with Pitt with everyone backing GB now because they know Pitt blows? I do not know the answer, but I'm leaning more towards pitt than towards GB. Over could be the better option instead of trying to figure out the side.

[Daws1089]

over a 100 views in this thread and no one has an opinion on any games? hard to believe me and underdog are the only ones....


Niners down a full point from +9 to +8? Wow didn't think this line would be moving down. Maybe the Niners are going to go on a run to end the season? but I don't really bet on Eagles games so maybe someone else can offer on this one.

[hodown]

Sorry guys, I was looking from my phone earlier and didn't wanna type from that. Seems like we got some pretty good lines out there.

GB @ Pitt -2
Earliest line I see out was the Hilton having Pitt opening at -3, goes immediately down to PK, then back up to -2. Public appears to be hitting GB, which makes me like this play just that much more. GB's road wins consist of STL, Cle, Det, Chi. I pretty much stated what they've done on the road in last week's discussion. Make no mistake about it, beating a sorry-ass Chicago squad impresses me none. The GB d has improved, but I'm not about to back them going into Pitt with this low of a line. Pitt has losses this year to Chicago, KC, Oak, and Cle. They also have a loss @ Balt w/o Ben and two losses to Cinci in tight games. They also have quality wins over SD, Minny, and Den. My thoughts are that Tomlin can't get these guys up for letdown games, so ultimately, they let down. Even if Oak and Cle are must win games, they still are crap opponents. GB is perceived as a solid ballclub, and I think we see the good Pitt here, not the bad Pitt. At risk of saying anything to jinx this, lets just say I really like Pitt at home with such a small spread against a team that hasn't proven that they can get a QUALITY roadwin.

Chi @ Balt -11
Chicago is a dead f*cking dog. The offense can't score more than 14-17 points in any game against a respectable team, and the defense contrary to so-called EXPERTS, actually overachieves imo. They play hard, but they're undersized on the front line, the LB's are slow as dirt outside of Briggs, and the secondary is brutal outside of Tillman, who doesn't exactly lock people down. Backing Balt to score 27 is a little scary, b/c that's what it's gonna take at most to cover, but the offense did come alive last wknd albeit against Det. I would say under here, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Balt get in the 30's. Chi just can't sustain drives and the defense has been and will be on the field all day long.

Is there a dog I like on the board outside of Car and Wash??

TB @ Sea -6.5
It's moved down from -7 which means the line might be begging for Sea money, which is a little scary. Does anyone really think TB can go across country and win in a place that's historically tough to play? Sea isn't very good either, but they're respectable at home. Mora has come out to the press about how soft the front lines are for Sea. I think they respond here, and in a pick the winner situation they get it done.

Why is Dallas in a pick the winner @ NO, who's been dominant at home?
Is Moss gonna silence critics this weekend, cuz if he does I don't think Buf can keep up.
Indy/Jax looks like a flip, probably not the smartest play in the world, why try and guess if Indy shows up?

That's my 2 cents. I'll probably put most of my focus and bankroll this weekend on Pitt, unless someone wants to play devil's advocate with me and talk me out of it.

[gadfly36]

just a couple of thoughts on the Indy game. I really think that Payton wants to go undefeated and lets face it, he is the one who runs that team. I don't see them shutting down their starters unless they do lose. It's also a little early to rest your players. There are 3 games left, and most teams don't rest until the last game.

[Daws1089]

I'm leaning more towards INDY mostly because JAX cannot rush the passer and when you don't get a pass rush against peyton, teams have a long day. They can play keep away all they want, but when Manning is on the field their defense is in trouble. It's hard to pick JAX here. I would like JAX to win this game, but their offense is horrid and with Sims-Walker banged up their passing attack blows. Their offensive line sucks. They haven;t had much success at all running the ball this year. The only reason they have is because they just run the **** out of it so 100 yards is misleading. But MJD hasn't touched 100 yds in weeks. Not sure why it would happen tonight against an undefeated team. The colts can say they might rest key players all they want, but I think Caldwell knows that when they have rested players in previous years, the Colts have made earlier exits in the playoffs. So I expect the Colts to win this game so I am not betting JAX +3. I'll sit this game out.

Not sure why it would apply to this game, but every single thursday night game this season has gone under the total.

[Stifler's Mom]

Geez, with Lang on JAX, now I'm scared. Then again, he has literally not won a play since Sunday, so I guess maybe he's due.

Nevertheless, I thought all week that JAX was the right side, weather Indy is resting starters or not resting starters. I firmly believe that 13-0 or not, that Indy is a very beatable team, and that Jacksonville, despite losing in HORRIBLE fashion to Miami last week, is still a decent football team who continues to fly under the radar.

The public is 100% in the Colts corner here, so why only -3? It looks to me like the books are loving all the money they are accumulating at Indy -3, especially with those extra tasty (to the books that is) -125's and -130's behind that -3.

The public absolutely steamrolled the books last week, so with that being said I gotta believe that a play such as this, a weeknight game with heavy action, where the public has a no doubter of an opinion, that if the books didn't firmly believe the public was on the wrong side, they would have no choice but to adjust the line to try and even out the action....which they are clearly not doing here.

Not that the books always win every play, but imo they have a real strong opinion on JAX here.

[TGold]

This may be shortsighted and "typically public" thinking by me, but I look at the better team getting only a field goal and I can't help but play the Colts.

Even for a prime time game, I can't see the fan energy in Jax being much of a factor so that arguably puts the 12th man/home field advantage a little lower on the factor list.

Colts are hot and have a knack for making that big 4thQ play - enough to cover that FG and worst case scenario, push the number.

MJD is a bit of a worry here - virtually unstoppable which may force Indy to put 8 in the box and open up single coverage for Garrard downfield. That said, I think the Colts offence strikes early to tries to take away the Jags run game and make them throw the ball.

If this becomes a game dominated by the passing game, Indy will roll. Clark and Garcon have been outstanding lately, minimizing double-team opportunities against Wayne on the outside. Addai has also taken advantage of his opportunities in recent games.

Laying the heavier juice (-121 for 3pt spread in my book) hurt a little, but I think Indy moves a little closer to 16-0 tonight.

GL to all and Happy Holidays.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

Steelers -1

Is this the week they put together a solid game? Everyone knows about them sucking ass now as its gone on for 5 games now, but why are they still favored over a good team? The books have been making a killing on the steelers lately with everyone thinking this will be the week they get back on track (myself inclued), but man they just aren't good. So are the books putting this line out there again hoping to get steelers money again and collect with green bay or is the line right with GB's road woes and the books are looking to collect with Pitt with everyone backing GB now because they know Pitt blows? I do not know the answer, but I'm leaning more towards pitt than towards GB. Over could be the better option instead of trying to figure out the side.

Green Bay is playing good football, makes it tough to go against them. Steelers can't score enough to beat the Browns! I think the line is about right though, saying that GB is 2 pts better on a neutral field. The Packers D has really started to step it up, could see them giving Big ben fits all day. I would lean under, Pitt can't score and they will likely come with a game defense. I could easily see a 17-13 type game witha ton of D and ball control. Interested in the weather there...

[Underdog88]

Warming up to Zona/Detroit over 47. Could be the type of game that has 5+ 1st half tds imo, Zona off a god-awful offensive showing. Detroit off an all around terrible performance, and their last time off b2b road losses was the Browns shootout win. I think Warner has a huge game, my concern is the Lions rb situation. Morris will get the lion's share of carries which scares me. However, Zona's run D looked god awful vs SF so maybe it doesn't matter who runs the ball. Culpooper to Calvin could be huge this game. The more I think about it the more I want to ignore the side and play this total....

[Sparky3604]

Bengals @ Chargers -7 My first instinct on this one is to take San Diego. The Chargers have been on fire recently covering 4 out of their last 6 with their two losses ATS being the last two weeks against the Browns and Cowboys respectably. They are starting to get that late season playoff form they've seemed to reach the past few seasons and are just winning games. With plenty of distractions this week, and traveling across country to face the Chargers who are playing as good as any team in the league right now, I think Cincy comes out and lays an egg. OR...do the Bengals come out and play inspired football? You know this game is gonna be played with heavy hearts and Chris Henry will be on the mind of all the Bengals players. Do they dedicate this game to Henry and produce a defensive masterpiece? I'm liking the Chargers at home. What do you guys think?

[recovering77]

Well since I'm likely gonna be snowed in for the next 36 hours, I'll join the discussion.
I've added another angle to my capping this season, and it's helping me out. I used to just see a shady line and automatically go against it, but now I take into account recent ATS record into this, and it helps me weed out a lot of shady lines that aren't shady. Anyways....

I'm late on the colts game. I took the colts and over, but too late for that. Talking about this game gives a good lead into the GB/Pitt game though. I dunno the record (not that you can exactly track it) of teams that are in "must win" situations, but I imagine that it is not good. We'll discuss this further in the Pitt game.

I'll go with my view on the games you pointed out underdog since you asked.

Bills +7 vs. Pats
This is what I eluded to in the beginning of my post. In the past it would automatically be the Bills. I took them in week 1 and hit pretty big. I actually like NE to cover in this spot. Everyone is aware that NE is 1-5 on the road. This line seems a bit high for a team that has lost 3 in a row ATS against a team that has covered 3 of it's last 4, coming off a win at Arrowhead. The thing I need ot factor in is gameday weather. New Englands 59-0 win over Tenn in the snow bowl earlier this year will be on people's minds. I don't think it will be a high scoring game if it snows, but I bet the public will take the over anyways.

Rams +13 vs. Texans
This is a huge line to be giving on the road. Houston was definitely due for a cover losing 3 in a row ats until last week. Game is scary though, it is a large line, St louis got blown out last week, Houston blew Seattle out, and St Louis's team has the swine flu. I'm not touching this game, nor do I have a lean.

Lions + 12.5 vs Arizona[/B]
You would really think that oddsmakers adjusting the lines over the years would have Detroit actually covering for a season. Detroit is 3-9 ATS this year. The fact that Arizona looked so bad last week is why I can't get a feel really for this game either. This game really depends on the QB situation as well. The O/U is set very high on this game, therefore I like the over. If the game goes over, who does this favor?

Panthers +9 vs Minny
This is one of the games I really like on Sunday. Minny coming off an impressive stomping vs Cincy. Carolina still with a backup QB, who is ineffective for the most part. So basically all Carolina has is the run game, which Minnesota is one of the best in the league at stopping. I feel this is a good spot to fade the covering machine that has been the Minnesota Vikings. It's a SNF game with high consensus, and last week the square eagles covered on SNF.

Redskins +3 vs. NYG
Two teams going in opposite directions. Washington has looked great lately, and has covered 5 games in a row, and the Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8. This line looks fishy, but it's not. Washington coming off a blowout of Oakland, NY getting abused by Philly in prime time spotlight. First game Washington covered, and it went over. The only thing that throws me is I hate betting against a team that got slaughtered last time they were on Primetime. Last game washington played on MNF the public was alllll over Philly, and washington did as expected, lost and did not cover. Over is 6-1 in Washington's last 7. The Giants last 2 games went over as well. First meeting between these 2 went over. I like Giants and UNDER, but being a local, I know the weather is going to be really bad this weekend, and I don't know if it will carry over to Monday.

Another interesting trend I read on another forum is that if the public loses on a SNF, they win MNF, and vice versa. The system is something like 12-1 so far this year. Since I like Carolina a lot on SNF, the system play would be NYG for Monday.

[recovering77]

Onto some of my own leans.

KC -1 Vs. Cleveland.
Love how Cleveland is coming off a huge win vs Pittsburgh. Cleveland has covered 4 in a row ATS, and KC has lost 3 in a row ATS. KC coming off a loss to the lowly Buffalo Bills. One thing I noticed last week. There were 3 -1/+1 lines last week. The away team won and covered all 3 games, KC being one of the teams that lost. This is a dumb logic, but my law of averages says KC is due to cover this week. Years ago I saw a stat that KC was something like 13-1 at Arrowhead in December. That hasn't followed through the past 2 years, but I still think it's a tough place to play. I'm really shocked when I see public percentages on KC though. It makes too much sense to take Cleveland.

Tenn -4 vs Miami
So Miami is 5-0 in December the past 2 years huh? Miami has everything to play for huh? This will be a definite play if Kerry Collins starts. I love fading undefeated trends. This trend was introduced last week, and it followed through. I like how Tenn has been playing, but last week they almost looked too good. Kerry Collins is 0-6 as a starter, and I would love to have him at -4 going against the hot Dolphins.

Pitt -1 Vs. Green Bay
This is one of those "must win" game situations. After many of the public took a beating on Thursday playing Jax in that spot, I think they go the opposite route and take GB this time. Green Bay is HOT, Pitt is not, losing SU to Cleveland, and having so much criticism on them. I believe it was Hines Ward that said to forget about the playoffs, even though they are technically still in it. So why is a team that states themselves that they are out of the playoff race favored against one of the hotter teams in the league? GB covered as a HEAVY public favorite last week, and I think they lose this time. I also like the UNDER in this game. Every Pittsburgh game that they have played without Polamalu has gone over this year, until last week. I think the Pitt defense gives Rodgers fits and Pitt wins a low scoring game.

Cincy +7 vs. San Diego
This was a stronger play for me til the passing of Chris Henry. The public loves to bet a team that has inspiration, especially after Cincy covered the week that coaches wife died. Also, most of the public is aware that Cincy covered every game this year as a dog until last week. This is mainly just going to be a fade of San Diego, who have won 8 games in a row and covered as a heavy public dog last week. Cincy also getting blown out last week, and the fade of the 15-0 December record is making me like this. I like the key 7 number as a teaser buster.

Leans:
Chicago- This team has not covered in FOREVER. I really think they are due against a team that laid a whoooping on the Detroit Lions last week.

Philly - Shocked to see Philly giving so many points to a team that looked absolutely great on MNF. Philly is a big public team though, so I probably will lay off as this line may be inflated because of that and how they played on primetime SNF.

Oakland - Backup QB theory. That's pretty much it. Denver losing last week doesn't help though.

I'm not playing Saturday, but I lean Dallas. New Orleans going for the undefeated Season, and Dallas known for their Decembers. I like the key number 7 here for a potential teaser buster.

[recovering77]

Originally Posted by hodown

TB @ Sea -6.5
It's moved down from -7 which means the line might be begging for Sea money, which is a little scary. Does anyone really think TB can go across country and win in a place that's historically tough to play? Sea isn't very good either, but they're respectable at home. Mora has come out to the press about how soft the front lines are for Sea. I think they respond here, and in a pick the winner situation they get it done.

Why is Dallas in a pick the winner @ NO, who's been dominant at home?
Is Moss gonna silence critics this weekend, cuz if he does I don't think Buf can keep up.

My thoughts exactly on the Seattle game. Liked Seattle at first, but the line going down to 6.5 does look to be begging for Seattle money. I don't like Seattle as a team though. Whenever I get a shady Seattle line, they still usually don't cover.

Dallas is in a Pick the winner, cuz Dallas is America's Team. A public favorite. Dallas is my favorite football team, but I don't let it skew my capping. I usually bet against them actually. The fact that I know for a fact they are probably the most popular franchise in the NFL makes it hard to read their lines sometimes. As my father told me, the SB champs always have inflated lines the season after (i.e. Pittsburgh), Dallas' lines seem to always be inflated. That is probably why they were -3.5 last week against SD, regardless of the Romo December troubles.

As an additional note to my NE/Buffalo pick, I remember last year. NE had gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4 coming into week 15. There was a SHADY line of -6.5 @ Oakland and they completely destroyed them. What do you know, NE is 1-3 ATS in their last 4, coming into week 15, and is a 7 point road favorite again. With all the questions surrounding Moss this week, I think it's a good spot to take em.