DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX

[Billy Barooooooo]

Final 2009 Defensive Hog Index
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 4, 2010

ABOUT THE DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX

The Defensive Hog Index is our effort to quantify which team has the best defensive front in football. It's proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 20-2 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl each year (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).

This isn't rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.

The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:

YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense's ability to stuff an opposing ground game.

NPP% – Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent's pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).

3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.

DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX UPDATE
Based on the buzz of the big media and the blogosphere alike, and the tenor of the emails to the cardboard-box world headquarters, the Defensive Hog Index remains the Quality Stat that has Trolldom in a tizzy (final numbers for 2009 are below).

The Defensive Hog Index, as you know, has been the most insightful indicator of postseason success in all of sports since we introduced the Quality Stat in 2007.

It’s a stat so accurate that Trolls use it to shoot beer cans off the heads of their children to pass the time between playoff games. (Please note, the Cold, Hard Football Facts do NOT condone this activity … at least not without a few drinks to take the edge off.)

The indicator, as we first discovered last year when it was pointed out to us by a loyal CHFF reader, has gone 20-2 straight up and 18-4 ATS picking playoff winners over the past two years.

But is that brilliant performance a fluke, or is it a pigskin portent of things to come, a magical statistical elixir of football enligtenment?

We don’t know. The Taco Bell Diet has us feeling weak and mentally malnourished. Plus, The indicator is only two years old. That’s not a lot of data and we might have just caught a wave of success of Defensive Hog-ism.

But we do know this: its worth as an indicator will be tested like never before here in the 2009 postseason. After all, three of the big favorites to win the Super Bowl, the NFC No. 1-seed Saints, the AFC No. 1-seed Colts and the AFC No. 2-seed and red-hot Chargers all fielded poor Defensive Hogs in 2009.

New Orleans finished the year No. 15 in DHI – No. 27 against the run (4.52 YPA), No. 6 forcing Negative Pass Plays (10.16%) and No. 14 on third downs (37.96%).

San Diego finished the year tied for No. 26 in DHI (with the lowly Bucs) – No. 24 against the run (4.45 YPA), No. 22 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.45%) and No. 23 on third downs (40.39%).

Indianapolis finished the year a dreadful No. 30 in DHI (ahead of only the woeful Lions and Rams) – No. 19 against the run (4.33 YPA), No. 25 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.10%) and No. 31 on third downs (45.02%).

In other words, success in the 2009 regular season and success in our Defensive Hog Index clashed violently this year, like Persians and Spartans hacking away at each other at the Gates of Fire.

Teams favored by the DHI
So we know the NFL’s quaint old seeding system favors teams like the Saints, Colts, Chargers and Vikings. It even handed these teams a week off to refresh and regroup or, in the case of the Colts, to not show up to play for the third week in a row.

But who does the DHI favor? It might prove to be an important question.

As loyal CHFF readers know (Hi cousin Bo!), the No. 1 team in the DHI has won the Super Bowl each of the two years since we introduced the indicator (2007 Giants, 2008 Steelers).

This year, that trend favors a team we identified as a Super Bowl dark horse back in December: the Packers.

Green Bay finished the 2009 season with the NFL’s No. 1 Defensive Hogs. They stuff the run as well as anyone (3.59 YPA, 2nd); they force more Negative Pass Plays than any team in football (11.61%), paced by a league-leading 30 INTs, and they’re No. 9 in third-down defense (36.02%).

But the Packers, for all the proficiency of their Defensive Hogs, are just 11-5 and the NFC’s No. 5 seed.

It’s a similar tale for most of the leading Defensive Hogs who appear in the playoffs this year:
The Eagles are No. 2 in the DHI, but the NFC’s No. 6 seed.
The Vikings are No. 3 in the DHI, and the NFC’s No. 2 seed (so that looks like a winning combination).
The Jets are No. 4 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 5 seed.
The Ravens are No. 7 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 6 seed.
So anything short of a Vikings Super Bowl victory, there will be an upset in the 2009 playoffs: either the top Defensive Hogs will upset the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights; or the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights will upset the almighty power of the Defensive Hog Index.

Stay tuned.

In the meantime, here are the final numbers from the 2009 season.

Final 2009 Defensive Hog Index
Team YPA # NPP% # 3down% # Avg
1 Green Bay 3.59 2 11.61 1 36.02 9 4.0
2 Philadelphia 4.06 12 11.06 3 33.03 2 5.7
3 Minnesota 3.89 6 9.97 9 34.5 3 6.0
4 N.Y. Jets 3.76 4 9.19 16 31.51 1 7.0
5t Miami 4.21 15 10.9 4 34.85 4 7.7
5t San Francisco 3.64 3 9.94 10 36.67 10 7.7
7 Baltimore 3.43 1 9.71 12 36.7 11 8.0
8 Dallas 3.97 9 8.63 21 35 5 11.7
9 Carolina 4.44 22 10.08 7 35.53 7 12.0
10 Arizona 4.49 25 10.06 8 35.34 6 13.0
11 Cincinnati 3.94 7 9.12 17 38.57 16 13.3
12t Denver 4.5 26 10.2 5 37.16 13 14.7
12t Pittsburgh 3.85 5 9.75 11 42.29 28 14.7
14 Washington 4.02 10 9.24 14 39.73 21 15.0
15 New Orleans 4.52 27 10.16 6 37.96 14 15.7
16 Oakland 4.54 28 9.49 13 35.81 8 16.3
17 N.Y. Giants 4.18 14 8.66 20 38.69 17 17.0
18 New England 4.44 23 9.02 18 37.11 12 17.7
19 Buffalo 4.71 30 11.21 2 40.42 24 18.7
20 Seattle 4.15 13 6.88 29 39.01 19 20.3
21 Houston 4.31 18 7.29 27 39.3 20 21.7
22t Atlanta 3.96 8 7.61 26 45.33 32 22.0
22t Cleveland 4.58 29 8.83 19 38.91 18 22.0
22t Tennessee 4.27 16 8.19 24 40.83 26 22.0
25 Chicago 4.29 17 8.32 23 41.15 27 22.3
26t San Diego 4.45 24 8.45 22 40.39 23 23.0
26t Tampa Bay 4.78 32 9.22 15 40.19 22 23.0
28 Jacksonville 4.05 11 5.53 32 44.98 30 24.3
29 Kansas City 4.72 31 7.14 28 38.12 15 24.7
30 Indianapolis 4.33 19 8.1 25 45.02 31 25.0
31 Detroit 4.42 21 6.12 31 40.48 25 25.7
32 St. Louis 4.4 20 6.4 30 43.54 29 26.3

[Billy Barooooooo]

Number 4 New York +2.5 JETS Win over Number 11 Cincinnati (24-14)

Number 2 Philadelphia +3.5 Loses to Number 8 Dallas (14-34)

Number 7 Baltimore +3.5 at Number 18 New England

Number 1 Green Bay Now -2 (Was +2) at Number 10 Arizona


YTD 1-1 -.10


Don't forget about play against the team who scores the most points this week! So far its Dallas!!!


BB

[Stifler's Mom]

Interesting stuff.

I can't help but wonder however, if Baltimore's defensive ranking is a bit skewed by their level of competition.

I know you can only play who the NFL puts in front of you, but Cleveland x2, Cincinnati x2, Detroit, Oakland, Steelers w/o Ben, Chicago. That's 8 garbage offenses right there that any even halfway decent defense should hold in check, or half the season of facing literally no one!!

Toss out KC putting up 24 in week 1 cause wacky **** happens in week 1 and some of those points in believe were in garbage time, but other than holding Indy to 17, the decent/good opposing offenses they have played have put up numbers, and points, against them.

SD 26
NE 27
MIN 33
GB 27
PIT 23 w/Ben

Those hardly look like numbers a championship caliber defense allows, no matter who they're playing, even if some of those points were scored as a result of their own offense causing bad spots for the defense.

Not saying they are bad, but just that possibly their defensive numbers are a bit skewed. I mean who couldn't stop the run and create turnovers against the Browns and whoever they had at QB then, or the Raiders and crappy Jamarcus Russell, or the Lions and whatever ****ty QB they played that week, or Chicago and turnover machine Cutler, even Cincinnati who didn't have much offense all season, or Pittsburgh w/Dennis Dixon at QB.

Just something to think about before blindly playing stats.....

[Billy Barooooooo]

Good Stuff Stiff! There was a hugh trend play today on Arizona but I didn't play it!

Play against a team when they have put up over 30 points and had under 12 scored on them the last two games and are playing out of Division! Its like 30-0. Something sick like that! I really thought the Hog was going to pull through on this!


Week 19 Playoffs
Saturday
Arizona (4 seed) (10 Hog) against New Orleans (1 seed) (15 Hog) Play is Arizona +7 but Arizona put up 51 points and goes against my system. This line will drop and I'm guessing it will drop to 5.5 by game time. Arizona will be a public favorite this week! Going with New Orleans -7
Baltimore (6 seed) (7 Hog) against Indy (1 seed) (30 Hog) Give me Baltimore and buy it up to +7

Sunday
Dallas (3 seed) (8 Hog) against Minnesota (2 seed) (3 hog) Give me Minnesota -2.5
Jets (5 seed) (4 Hog) against San Diego (2 seed) (26 hog) **** line opens at 9.5 and already down to 7.5. Give me the dog

So looks if you were to play Hog in week 19
Arizona +7
Baltimore +7
Minnesoat -2.5
New York J-E-T-S 7.5


BB

[Billy Barooooooo]

Opening lines and money placed Sunday Night 1am CST

1/16/2010
3:30P 109 Arizona Cardinals 65% ATS 93% ML
110 New Orleans Saints -7 -101 35% ATS 7% ML
57 -105
4393 Total Bets


1/16
7:15P 111 Baltimore Ravens 47% ATS 71% ML
112 Indianapolis Colts -6.5 -104 53% ATS 29% ML
44o-110
7254 Total Bets

1/17/2010
12:00P 113 Dallas Cowboys 53% ATS 73% ML
114 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -107 47% ATS 27 ML
48 -105
12337 Total Bets


1/17
3:40P 115 New York Jets 60% ATS 61% ML
116 San Diego Chargers -9.5 -110 40% ATS 39% ML
42.5o-110
7362 Total Bets

[Billy Barooooooo]

play against the team who scores the most points this week!

Playoffs
Arizona Lost! (Winner)


Might be N.O. next week! I just hope they don't play Dallas and or Lose to them! I hate em!!!


**** Hog system taking a **** this year!!!!


0-2 on the night and 2-4 on the year! J-E-T-S and Vikings...Hope they can hold on!!!!

[Billy Barooooooo]

Play against New Orleans -4 put up 45 points

Play Minnesota Winner ATS


Play against New Orleans put up 31 points

Play on Indy -4 or -5


BOL

System this year so far 2-0


BB