***The Knuckleballer's 2011-2012 NFL Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Many of you may have followed my posts over the last couple of seasons, but for those of you that have no clue what I'm talking about I have provided some background info. In summary, my passion for sports has led me to create a mathematical system designed to extrapolate value in Vegas’ lines. The system enables me to eliminate the lines that have little to any value and exploit the lines with a high probability of winning. Also, the system allows me to have an objective opinion and it mitigates the human element of handicapping. You must remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system gets stronger and stronger as the season wears on, because there is more and more relevant data to utilize.

Last year was tough. We finished the College Football season down 4.3 Units and the NFL season down 1.4 Units. Don't let this turn you away from following this thread. My system is designed to win over the long haul. The 2009-2010 College Football season ended up 38.4 Units, while the 2009-2010 NFL season added another 1.3 Units. Meaning that over the last two years we are up a total of 34 Units in College Football and NFL combined. This is not a magic formula, but it is consistent. Plus, unlike other handicappers that come and go, I am here to stay and I won't hide after a bad week, month, or year. I hope you enjoy the picks, and I look forward to hearing your comments. Good luck!!

[The Knuckleballer]

What could be better than the start of the NFL season? We have the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers squaring off against the Saints. Per my calculations, this game figures to be close throughout with less scoring than the experts predict. Odds makers have the total for this game at 47.5, but my system has the total at 41. Thus, you should take the under and watch two of the top 5 defenses from last season slug it out. In the end, I have the Packers edging out the Saints by the score of 21-19. Good luck and enjoy the pick!

**2 Unit Pick**
Packers/Saints Under 47.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (0-1-0) -2.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (0-1) -2.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units

Total Unit Based Record (0-2.2-0) -2.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (0.00%)

Week 1 in the NFL is always fun. I have three 2 Unit Picks and four 1 Unit Picks. The public is pounding the Browns tomorrow, but my system has this game capped at pickem with a total of 41, meaning that neither team has a significant advantage. Thus, you should take the Bengals at +7 and the Over at 35. Look for Andy Dalton to shock oddsmakers and fans alike tomorrow with a strong performance. In my opinion, the key stat at the end of this game will be 3rd down conversion %. If the Bengals can conver 40%+ on 3rd down, they will cover and likely win this game. Good luck and enjoy tomorrow's action!

**2 Unit Picks**
Bengals +7
Titans/Jaguars Over 37
Seahawks/49ers Over 38

*1 Unit Picks*
Bengals/Browns Over 35
Vikings +8.5
Seahawks +5
Cowboys/Jets Over 40.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (5-3-0) 1.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-2) -.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (3-1) 1.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (7-5.5-0) 1.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.00%)

Great start to the NFL season yesterday! Tonight, I have the Raiders pulling off the "upset" over the Broncos. My system has the Raiders winning this game by the score of 27-23 and outgaining the Broncos by about 40 yards. Despite the predicted score and yardage advantage this is still just a 2 Unit pick due to nature of the line movement, early season uncertainties, etc... Good luck and enjoy the games!!

**2 Unit Pick**
Raiders +3

*1 Unit Pick*
Raiders/Broncos Over 41.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (7-3-0) 4.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-2) 1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (4-1) 2.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (10-5.5-0) 1.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (64.52%)

Great start to the NFL season. Hopefully we can get back on track in College Football and keep the momentum going in the NFL. Remember this is a Marathon not a sprint. Don't get too excited about a good week and don't fret over a bad week. We are looking for long term success. Good luck and have a great week!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (7-3-0) 4.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-2) 1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (4-1) 2.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (10-5.5-0) 1.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (64.52%)

My system got off to a hot start last week, and I am looking for more of the same in Week 2. Also, we had a strong Week 3 in College Football (check it out in the College Football forum). This week, we will be cheering for several traveling underdogs. In fact, I have the Raiders and Bengals both winning outright. Vegas has the Raiders at +4, but my system has the Raiders at -5.5. Similarly, Vegas has the Bengals at +3.5, while my system has the Bengals at -1.5. This is definitely a strong Week 2 card filled with value. Good luck and enjoy the football!

***3 Unit Picks***
Jaguars +9
Bears +7
Packers/Panthers Under 44.5
Bengals +3.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Seahawks +15
Raiders +4
Bears/Saints Under 47
Chiefs +9

*1 Unit Picks*
Jaguars/Jets Over 39
Bengals/Broncos Over 40

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (11-9-0) -2.9 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-3) -6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-4) 1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-2) 2.8 Units

Total Unit Based Record (18-20.9-0) -2.9 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (46.27%)

Yesterday, was rough, but my system has a 2 Unit Pick for tonight's game. I have this game capped at Rams +2.5 with a total of 42.5. By waiting we were able to see the line move to Rams +7. Statistically speaking the key to this game will likely be the Rams ability to slow down the Giants rushing attack. Last season, the Giants averaged 4.58 yards per rush. This is a big question mark, but what better stage to find out the answer than on Monday Night Football. Look for a great game that is decided by less than a field goal. Good luck and enjoy the action!

**2 Unit Pick**
Rams +7

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (11-10-0) -5.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-3) -6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-5) -1 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-2) 2.8 Units

Total Unit Based Record (18-23.1-0) -5.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (43.80%)

We stumbled a little last week in the NFL, but we are ready to bounce back with a strong Week 3 performance. I have four 3 Unit Picks on tap today. The lines may not be pretty, but they are full of value. The Panthers are overvalued due to "Cam Newton Effect" that has swept through the NFL. The Jags running game and the Panthers lack of a running defense will be the key to the Jags covering and winning this game. The Jags are averaging 3.72 yards per rush, while the Panthers are allowing 4.85 yards per rush. My system has this game capped at Jags -4. Good luck and enjoy today's action!

***3 Unit Picks***
Jaguars +3
Giants +8.5
Chiefs +14
Colts +10.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Texans/Saints Under 52
Packers/Bears Under 45

*1 Unit Picks*
Jets/Raiders Over 41
Colts/Steelers Over 39.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (17-12-0) 2.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-6) -1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-2) Units

Total Unit Based Record (31-28.6-0) 2.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.01%)

My system doesn’t have any picks for tonight. There is no value in the spread or total of this game. Fortunately, we had a great Sunday, which makes sitting on the sidelines seem a little more enjoyable. We went 6-2 picking up 7.5 Units. Now it’s time to start preparing for another big weekend. Good luck and enjoy tonight’s action!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (17-12-0) 2.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-6) -1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-2) Units

Total Unit Based Record (31-28.6-0) 2.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.01%)

After another great Saturday of College Football, my system is hitting on all cylinders. There is limited value on today's card, so we must pick our spots. In fact, my system has produced just one 3 Unit Pick today. According to my system, the fair value line for the Broncos game is at +8, so you should take the Broncos at +12. Contrary to public assumption, the Broncos are a better defensive team than the Packers on 3rd down, allowing opponents to convert just 35% of their 3rd down chances. They must continue this trend in order to keep Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench. Good luck and enjoy the action!

***3 Unit Pick***
Broncos +12

**2 Unit Picks**
Bengals +3
Chiefs +3

*1 Unit Picks*
Lions +2.5
49ers +9.5
Steelers +3.5
Falcons/Seahawks Over 38.5
Giants -1

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (23-14-0) 6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-6) 2.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-3) 7.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (39-33-0) 6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.17%)

Yesterday was fun. We lost our 3 Unit Pick, but going 6-2 overall is never a bad thing. Tonight, I have two 1 Unit Picks. Will the Colts pick up their first win of the season? Maybe, but it is definitely likely that they will cover the 10 point spread. My system has this game capped at Bucs -1 with a total of 45.5. Definitely some value in both the spread and the total, but the consensus is preventing either of these plays from being anything more than a 1 Unit Pick. Good luck and enjoy the action!

*1 Unit Picks*
Colts +10
Colts/Bucs Over 40

[dman81]

Originally Posted by The Knuckleballer

Overall Record (23-14-0) 6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-6) 2.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-3) 7.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (39-33-0) 6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.17%)

Yesterday was fun. We lost our 3 Unit Pick, but going 6-2 overall is never a bad thing. Tonight, I have two 1 Unit Picks. Will the Colts pick up their first win of the season? Maybe, but it is definitely likely that they will cover the 10 point spread. My system has this game capped at Bucs -1 with a total of 45.5. Definitely some value in both the spread and the total, but the consensus is preventing either of these plays from being anything more than a 1 Unit Pick. Good luck and enjoy the action!

*1 Unit Picks*
Colts +10
Colts/Bucs Over 40

Screw the consensus and just go with your gut! Took 4 units yesterday completely ignoring the love TB had. I didn't post here but it's on covers. Nice hit though KB!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (25-14-0) 8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-6) 2.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (13-3) 9.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (41-33-0) 8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.41%)

Today's card does not contain much value. I have four picks, two of which are 2 Unit Picks. My system has the Bills winning by 4-5 points and the Cardinals winning by 2-3 points. Take advantage of these bad lines and enjoy the games!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Bills +3
Cardinals +3.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Bengals -2.5
Titans +3.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (27-16-0) 7.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-7) 2.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (14-4) 9.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (44-36.3-0) 7.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.79%)

Sorry for not posting sooner. No picks earlier today due to a lack of time to run all of the numbers. Either way, I have the Vikings winning tonight's game by a field goal. Enjoy the game and take the points!

***3 Unit Pick***
Vikings +2

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (27-17-0) 4.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-6) -7.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-7) 2.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (14-4) 9.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (44-39.6-0) 4.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.63%)

Are you ready for some football? I have just three picks today. Today's card is tight and contains very little value. In fact, I have just one 3 Unit Pick. My system has the fair value line of the Sunday Night game at Saints -7.5 with a total of 49.5. Take the points and watch for the Colts ground game to keep it "close." The Saints are giving up an average of 5.12 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, fantasy owners should look to put Brees in their lineup if they haven't already. The Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks an average QB rating of 102.58. Should be a good game, but I would strongly encourage taking the points. Best wishes!

***3 Unit Pick***
Colts +13.5

**2 Unit Pick**
Rams +14

*1 Unit Pick*
Raiders -3.5