This here NFL Playoffs!

[akatdrake]

Saturday Wildcard games:

Houston -4 vs Cincinnati - this is a spread where I think a lot of people are going to back Cincinnati. They'll compare rookie QBs and Dalton has been the most impressive, right?? Well he's been terribly inconsistent. They'll say well Cincy has a run defense that will match up with Houston's run game, and though Cincy does have a good run defense, but for the last six weeks, they've been giving up nearly five yards per carry (4.8); and that decline coincided with DT Pat Sims going down with an ankle injury. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, Houston's Arian Foster has been averaging over 4.4 yards a carry in the same timespan. You can throw other stats out like: Cincy is 1-7 SU vs teams over .500 this year, Cincy is 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 vs playoff teams, including 0-3 on the road. Andy Dalton doesn't do well vs top 10 pass defenses (3-5 ATS), and Houston will have their defensive play-calling genius Wade Phillips back for this one. (Isn't it completely remarkable how the difference of a year makes? Many of us were betting against Houston because they had the worst defense (or bottom three) in the league. Wow, what a turnaround.) You just have to think Kubiak will do everything in his power to not put it on his rookie QB late in the game, and that may be taking a shot or two down field early.

Detroit Lions +11 at New Orleans Saints - another fade of the Saints, eh Andy? Yeah, not usually a profitable venture as of late... I'm going to look at the game played just a few weeks ago. The Lions were hanging tough and in the game until the lack of discipline (all day really) really took its toll. Multiple offensive pass interference penalties, and there was the banged up Matthew Stafford. They did not have Louis Delmas and Ndamukong Suh. Also looks like Corey Williams and Aaron Barry will be back in action as well. You have to think the way the Lions have resurrected themselves this year - finally getting all phases rolling, and overcoming adversity (the Suh suspension and Best injury), the worst thing to derail a season would be the continual lack of discipline. I have to think Schwartz drills that into his player's minds all week long. I expect the Lions to make it a close game.

Both for four units. Good luck guys.

[Underdog88]

GL in the playoffs drake! Tough game in NO, think the Saints are the better all around team, but that is a ton of pts.

[bluedevil12]

BOL Drake

[akatdrake]

Thanks fellas. Had a chance to cover that line later in the fourth quarter, but another pick was not meant to be. This Lions team is young and will do some great things in the next few years, I think.

Sunday:

New York Giants -3 vs Atlanta - couple of points both ways here... one, Matt Ryan still looking for that elusive first career playoff win. Clearly Atlanta isn't the same team on the road, and to have to come into a windy stadium, cold temperatures, vs a front seven that can get to you and cause some problems.. that's really tough. That's probably going to offset a lot of the secondary issues the Giants have.

Pittsburgh -9 at Denver - yes, this is not a popular pick with the sharps. Laying almost dd on the road in the playoffs is traditionally a recipe for disaster, but again I really do not see how the Broncos can score points here. Pittsburgh's defense is so quick laterally, and having Polamalu at the line pressuring Tebow and McGahee will be tough. Big Ben's ankle won't be an issue today, though word is Pouncey is not doing well and may be out. That is definitely a negative to my point, as if Denver can get after Ben and make him throw on the run under pressure, the ankle could be an issue - but time and time again we see Ben rise up after being hurt and play well.

Four units each.

[akatdrake]

Even in the Wild Card games... here's what I have for the divisonal games, for Saturday:

San Francisco 49ers +4 vs New Orleans Saints - not much time for a write-up, unfortunately, but I'm thinking a 24-21 type of game here. Like the 49ers to keep it close and possibly get it done at home. Almost 70 percent of the public on the Saints and I expect that to grow as it comes game time. Saints blowing people out on turf on national television, but Niners have it where it counts. They'll know the grass/elevation situation better than the Saints and if Willis can get his non-existant butt in gear this game, it should force Brees into a few ill-advised passes.

Denver Broncos +14 at New England - Don't have much faith Denver can win, but I like them covering here, and possibly taking advantage of New England's bad secondary. They've defied odds all season long and this line is too big for the playoffs. I paid the price last week taking an almost dd favorite... won't again.