Playoff Discussion

[Daws1089]

Can we talk about this weekend a little bit guys? It's been so dead around the site.

NE-7/50.5

SF-2.5/42

As hard as it may be to picture it, I think Baltimore can win at NE. I have been on Flacco's case all year. Especially last game where he was just awful and so unimpressive. Make that the entire Ravens offense that was unimpressive. Meanwhile, Tom shredded Denver looking unstoppable. It's easy to get caught up in what happened last week. We talk about this a lot as the season goes on week to week, the books just want you to remember what happened last week or last game and apply it to this week's games. I know Stifler's Mom stresses that a lot and it is valid again this week. Something else I always like to look at is which team scored the most points last week. This ties in with the whole "last week" idea. Take for example the saints who scored the most points wild card weekend against Detroit. If you faded them, you won last weekend with San Fran. You can look at this for each week of the regular season and it has a nice record. Looking back to last week's games, New England scored 45 making them the highest scoring team. People will remember the drubbing they put on Denver and it shouldn't be blindly followed, but it's a nice tool to add to whatever else you use to pick winners. The line opened at -9 and the fact that its down to -7 tells me a lot. I mean why is the ****ty road team Ravens getting sharp money here? I think that tells us something. It really doesn't make me want to back NE even though I can get a better line for NE now. I would feel a lot better about NE if the line held or grew a little.

Something that has been troubling me this week. I keep going back to the 2010 (I think) AFC championship game when Indy was -9 vs the Jets. I was so hung up on the Jets defense getting that many pts and just wouldn't let it go. I thought it had to be the right side. Someone else on this site who no longer posts was opposite. He kept harping on the fact that Indy was such a big favorite in an AFC championship game should tell us Indy. The thought is that since its an AFC championship game, you would think the spread would be tighter and the game will be close. He was right as Indy won by like 17 or something. I keep trying to apply that to this game as it was a -9 pt spread, but now that it has moved 2 full pts and not in the favorite's favor I like Baltimore more.

I'm tired now and don't really have any great thoughts on the NFC game so hopefully after I take a day to think about the NFC game I can get some thoughts posted. Please post guys. We need more discussion. We have a ton of great cappers out there and we are all missing out on winners by not talking these games through. I know everyone is so busy nowadays, but even just a couple sentences letting us know where your head is at is better than nothing.

I would love to hear some NE backers angles too.

[V3r1f13d]

The NFL would love a NE vs NYG rematch.
I'll probably go where the money is.

[Daws1089]

The NFL would also love a Harbaugh family superbowl so I don't know if we can think like that.

[Daws1089]

Regarding the Giants/49ers, it seems kind of weak that SF couldn't draw a -3 at the minimum here. Doesn't give me a ton of confidence in SF, but maybe the books are flooded with Giants backers and know they will get giants action on this line anyway. The line did jump from -1.5

[DukiesBaby]

New England Has not won a game all year vs a team with a Winning Record, Best teams they beat all year Finished with 8-8... Denver last week had winning record only because of playoff win, they also finished 8-8 New Englands only 2 games vs teams with Winning Records all year was Pittsburgh & Giants Both games they lost... Im all over the Baltimore spread and moneyline.. Baltimore has a real defense like pittsburgh which dominated new england... New England is not the patriots of years past ya you can get caught up in their nice 11-3 record and #1 seed, But look who they had to play to get that record, The Packers / Saints Giants Ravens Steelers 49ers get that same schedule they probably Finish 15-1 16-0 depending on which team u select.. Tom Brady and Big Bill could Prove me wrong, sure but that would be because Joe Crapo turns the ball over and the secondary for baltimore falls down while chasing recievers in routes... but we bet these games based on a clean game to start and take your chances that certain key players show up to play, and if that happens, New England should Lose this game....



New York Giants /San Fran 49ers

Very tough match up for me to predict, I have so much hate for the giants that i am rooting for the 49ers to win... but i cant find myself betting alex smith vs giants d-line, i saw the saint get pressure on alex smith, i also saw the saints defense play stupid defense late game to give it away back to 49ers... and alot of drew brees turnovers... i dont see eli making so many mistakes as they rely on bradshaw and jacobs more than saint do thomas and ingrahm... In my opinion the giants have 2 Colstons on their wr core Cruz & Nix both have Awesome hands both make huge plays... no darren sproles though.. this game could be a good one but im leaning Giants with the experience @ QB in this big game its Eli manning vs 49ers Home Field, Eli keeps it at 1 turnover or less i think Giants Route the 49ers...

Tough game but im more interested in watching the NFC than that AFC game


Good Luck this week guys

[Underdog88]

I think the Ravens keep it within the number, imo the number is a bigtime overreaction to the last result. Flacco scares me though.