NFLX: Week 1

[rjp]

Atlanta +4 -105

5Dimes reduced juice makes this a bet.

[birdsfan5]

GL rjp

[Stifler's Mom]

I was just going to start a thread to say that although I don't care one lick about NFL preseason football, nor do I see much of a way to cap it, I do think Atlanta is a good bet tonight because I think they have something to prove in their first game without the dog slayer, and will go all out to do so.

I may even go as far as to make a bet on this meaningless exhibition for that very reason, lol

GL

[rjp]

Stif, the team has done a good job of ignoring the Vick situation. I didn't exactly mark this as a motivational thing, I simply didn't account for a distraction due to the circumstance.

The real value comes from the backup QB competition.

The market has now shifted down to +3.5, so I don't think you'll see +4 for much longer. I was very conservative with my odds, so that might provide some value, too.

[Stifler's Mom]

They may not have commented on it or made a big deal about it, but the reality is that they're human beings, and they all were under the shadow of the Falcons being VICK'S team, and were probably a little sick of hearing about how HE carried them when they won.

I don't know for sure, but I can't imagine there won't be at least a little extra motivation there for the offense to make some plays and move the ball without him, even if it's just early from the guys who have been around for a few years.

There is no other situation in the NFL that compares to the Vick/Falcons one in terms of people thinking one guy makes a team go. In alot of people's eyes, I believe it's similar to the Kobe/LAL situation, except in hoops, one player can basically do it by himself (at least on offense) if he's got the skills of a Kobe Bryant. That just can't happen in the NFL, and in addition to the possible motivation, I also believe the oddsmakers have over adjusted for Vick's absence just a bit here as well by adding the hook to ensure closer action on both sides, which seems to be working since 87% are on the Jets ML and just 57% are on the Jets ATS.

How you can lay a -190 or so ML in football for a team you don't expect to win by more than 3 points is beyond me, lol, but that's often the case. If i play ATL, it will probably be ML

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, by the way, I agree also with the backup QB battle. Point well taken on that as well

[EddieP]

I was just going to start a thread to say that although I don't care one lick about NFL preseason football, nor do I see much of a way to cap it, I do think Atlanta is a good bet tonight because I think they have something to prove in their first game without the dog slayer, and will go all out to do so.stif you are the winner of the quote of the year contest,notice i didnt say month no one will top that one after an 0 and 1 start to the season i just might play the dirty birds myself,hope its not the kiss of death to the rest of the falcon backers

[rjp]

Miami ML +115

Looks like the Dolphins 1st string offense will play the entire 1st half

I suspect this will be at least a PK by game time, if not higher. What this really means is the 2nd unit and such will be playing 3rd and 4th stringers.

[birdsfan5]

GL rjp