Week 2 Discussion

[Daws1089]

Sorry Udoggie, i couldnt wait for you to post it. I saw a line that i am so confused by.

Jax-10.5 vs. atlanta?

ok, tennessee who is not good in my mind goes into jax and beats jax and also holds them to just 10 pts. Tennessee runs all over jax. Atlanta has a similar run game maybe better run game than tenn. My big gripe is jax loses in week 1 and comes back at 10 pt favs????


help me out here udoggie, stif, birdsfan, anybody!

[FearTheRaven]

Goes back to Stiff's comments about the team that wins the game covers the spread about 86% of the time.

I believe it was 12-1 in yesterday's games with Buffalo being the only game where the spread came into play.

So if you think that ATL can win I'd take them.

I personally think JAX wins by more than 2 TD's.

[bookiekilla]

Originally Posted by FearTheRaven

Goes back to Stiff's comments about the team that wins the game covers the spread about 86% of the time.

I could be wrong, but I think that the stat of 85%-90% was only for games where the line was 7 or less....not completely sure about that, but I believe it only applies to line of a TD or less....Stif???

[FearTheRaven]

Ah ok, you could be right Bookie. Not trying to discredit your Dirty Birds or anything.

I had them against MIN

[bookiekilla]

Originally Posted by FearTheRaven

Ah ok, you could be right Bookie. Not trying to discredit your Dirty Birds or anything.

I had them against MIN

yeah...i had them too...

Not sure yet what to think of this game next week in Jax...I had Jax this week also against Tenn and was shocked at how bad they looked. So now for them to be a double digit fav, I'm not sure what to think...haven't looked too much into the week 2 lines, but I'll look into this one a little more later this week.

[flmmkrz]

I would tease jax down if I were to play them at all. I don't like how they looked this weekend but I dont like how Harringtons looked ever lol. I'll dig into it a bit more, was that the open or has the line moved to that number?

[Underdog88]

I had both Atlanta & Jax yesterday. I am baffled by the Titans being able to run on Jax so easily- 5.8 ypc & 282 on the ground? Could be that the Jags were a bit preoccupied with the whole Leftwich deal... not to mention it was a divisional game, one which the Titans were definitely up for. Jax did hold Young to 78 yds passing & allowed just 13 points, despite giving up so many yards on the ground. I think that's something to consider. Do you think Harrington on the road (vs. a much better D than Minny) is going to facilitate more points? They only put up 3 against the Vikings. I would expect a pretty angry & focused Jags D next week. As for Atlanta, Minny avg 5.1 ypc on them yesterday, so I would expect a heavy dose of the run from the Jags....

From the linesmakers perpective, what number could you put out there to attract some buyers on the Falcons? If you put a -7.5 to -9 out there, no doubt you'll get 1 sided action. It doesn't even matter how badly Jax played, a number lower than that on an AFC home team would get eaten up. Atlanta just lost by 21 to the Vikings! I think the number is justified, but vegas is gonna make you sweat with that hook out there. Jax or no play from me, & I'll be looking into the Falcon team under.

[BoKnows]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

From the linesmakers perpective, what number could you put out there to attract some buyers on the Falcons? If you put a -7.5 to -9 out there, no doubt you'll get 1 sided action. It doesn't even matter how badly Jax played, a number lower than that on an AFC home team would get eaten up. Atlanta just lost by 21 to the Vikings! I think the number is justified, but vegas is gonna make you sweat with that hook out there. Jax or no play from me, & I'll be looking into the Falcon team under.

EXACTLY!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Not even going near that game...no way I can back the Falcons, and I can't lay that much with anyone except Indy....leave it alone IMO....there's lots of others...

[Daws1089]

you guys are right. i should just stay far away from this game. Another line that perplexed me was dallas -3.5 @ miami.

I kid in the hallway here at school said he's all over dallas. and i have a feeling the public will be right behind him. gotta be some reasons to play miami, no?

[Daws1089]

out of all of the home dogs this week i thought arizona probly has the best chance to win. I don't really think seattle is all that good to begin with especially away from home. Their defense has lost a lot including safeties ken hamlin and michael boulware. lienart should be able to find his weapons down field i would think.

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

out of all of the home dogs this week i thought arizona probly has the best chance to win. I don't really think seattle is all that good to begin with especially away from home. Their defense has lost a lot including safeties ken hamlin and michael boulware. lienart should be able to find his weapons down field i would think.

Seattles my team, and you couldn't be any more wrong about our defense it's vastly improved. Zona may win tho I very much doubt it but Hamlin was a liability. He went for the big hit instead of wrapping up and was a hot head who cost us in penalties. Boulware was let go cause he would've been buried on the depth chart. He was burnt repeatedly by the long ball and while solid against the run was terrible in coverage. He has talent but his growth into the safety position wasn't going as well as was hoped by his early success. Grant and Russell shore up the positions. They are reliable in coverage and in the run game and being coached by Mora Jr is only helping the secondary. Our linebackers may be amongst the best in the league. The weakness is in run stopping, something as well as edge ran last week isn't a huge issue vs the cards. I'll take our dline vs their oline anytime. This is about the best defense the hawks have fielded that I can remember in my lifetime. On offense the key players are healthy, tho hackett out doesn't help. Last year Shaun and Matt having all the time off kept the offense out of sinc, the oline was patchwork last year, reciever banged up, the year never really got on track but they're healthy and this team is being vastly underespected and my hometown allegiances aside, they may be the most complete team in the nfc. Bet Zona if your numbers tell you its the right play but the hawks are gonna cost you money this year if you think they'll be worse off than last year cause this team as it is miles ahead of it.

[Horfin]

Anyone got thoughts on Cincy/Cleveland. I see this as a play on Cleveland. Cincy wins on MNF (short week). Cleveland gets blown up, loses the QB, Coach being questioned on every move he makes. Cincy will prbly be a Road Fav. This is one of those that look too good to be true.


Thoughts on it?

[Q-Unit]

I like Cle too Horf. dunno why, looks too good to be true also



dunno why everyone turned on Leftwich so quickly and is ready to annoint Garrad a new pro bowler, when he hasnt done much more IMO.

to be honest I think the jaguars problem was lack of a running game. or lack of effort. I would know, I inexplicably left LaMont Jordan on the bench accidently in favor of Fred Taylor.

in fact that was the theme this last weekend. sloppy play, anemic offenses, and abandoning the run game too early. I hadnt looked into it more but i bet there werent that many 100+ rushers across the board.

[rjp]

Cleveland ML, obviously. ;)