Early Season Wagering Discussion

[FlyersFan]

season is almost here...... (actually as BB puts it, it's a 24 month season).....seems like it just ended.....


wanted to get a thread going for the regulars and anyone new to comment on anything they like to start the season betting wise. undervalued/overvalued teams in terms of perception vs. reality, slow starting teams, teams with early chemistry issues, teams to bet over/under whatever.

somebody needs to find srtour, BTW....legend lost.....


Here are some of my early thoughts/questions:

1) PHI and NYR both added big pieces to their teams but i am wondering if there are chemistry issues early in the season especially on the PP. Kind of looking to play against those teams early if the numbers come inflated. I think PHI is going to be an OVER team eventually this year. I think they added some nice offensive pieces, espeically with Timmonen and Briere on the PP, but i am not so sure Biron is a big upgrade in net and that D is still shaky, IMO. I will also be interested to see if Lundqvist can come back with another good season.

2) NJD will have some value this year especially early on. I don't think they are going to be as bad as some think. They play that low scoring style anyway, and if a couple of their young guys step up and Zubrus has even a decent/50 point season, i think you may get some good numbers early on as the public perception has to be that they are down and i can't believe that Vegas wouldn't follow that. Be careful this year betting NJD in terms of netminders because Brodeur is rumored to be getting a lot of BB's off and probably will play more like 65-67 games this year as opposed to the 78 or so he has been playing.

3) COL.....this is my surprise team in the west. Sakic still has it and they have some great/good young players in stastny, wojo and even svatos if he can come back. X factor is budjai (can't spell his name...lol). they finished on a real roll last year and it will be interesting to see if the oddsmaker takes that into account. i really like them this year especially if they are undervalued on the line.

4) DAL......is going to be an overvalued team, IMO. People will bet them because they are DAL, but i see a lot of aging players on that team. Modano, Lehtinen, Zubov......i don't like them offensively at all. Looking to fade them early on.

5) NAS........anyone have any thoughts on this team? Lost a ton from last year, but trotz may get them playing hard and together. I am sure the line perception will show they are way down. Anyone think there is value early on in the preds?

6) LAK..............over team this year. lots of good young players up front who have 1-2 seasons under their belt. should have a good/above average PP this year with Vishnovsky on the point. Goaltending is a huge issue with them as is their aging defense. Priessing is on his 3rd team in 3 seasons for a reason, IMO and Blake aint the blake of old. I think this team plays a lot of 6-4 hockey games.

7) FLA....are they a playoff team? lot of young talent and is vokoun the answer?

8) ANA.....fade them early, fade them early fade them early. seems like every year the cup winner has cup hangover. you will get some nice fat lines early, IMO. schneider is out, no selanne or penner......public perception should be the Ducks will reload which should help get some nice fat + numbers with decent teams.

9) ATL...do they follow up on last season or go backwards?

some teams i just have no thoughts on either way. BOS, TAM, CBJ.....i think those 3 could make the playoffs or finish 13th in their conference.


just some early thoughts. would like to hear what others think about those thoughts and other stuff as well.


GL to everyone this season....... .......angelus, JML, flmrrz, meester, angelz etc.......lets kick some ass this year.....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

First off...what was with that Brutal hit by that little goon Downey for the Flyers? It's getting huge play up here....some people are calling for a year suspension....I tend to agree... taking a 50 foot full speed run, leaving your feet, headhunting, elbowing.....just brutal. He could have killed McAmmond. That was every bit as bad as the Bertuzzi incident, IMO. That Downey has been that way since junior....multiple suspensions, even beating the **** out of a rookie at Peterborough.

******* Psycho.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

OK, here we go......first off, Finals prediction: Buffalo OVER Colorado.

Response to FF'd thread:

1) I agree....teams that make big splashes in the offseason are usually over-valued. The Flyers made some nice additions, but will still be in tough to make the dance, IMO. They also are weak on defence depth, especially speed on the back end. Biron is an upgrade (not hard with the scrubs Philly has iced in recent past), but he is still a middle of the pack, non-elite goalie, IMO. They also have some injuries up front, and we'll see about the Briere/Gagne chemistry...early season fade on fav lines for Philly. As for NYR....they sure look strong on paper, which should result in HUGE fav lines, but I agree...buyer beware...Lunqvist has struggled in pre-season, and the word is that Gomez and Jagr have had no chemistry whatsoever so far.

2) Devils might have some value, with the losses of Gomez and Rafalski perceived to cripple this team, but much like Buffalo, NJ has some kids ready to step into more prominent roles on the first 2 lines, namely Parise (expect a huge year), and Zajak. Add that to a returning healthy Gionta, as well as good players Elias, Zubrus, Pandalfo and Madden, and they'll be a good team once again. Not sure the Devils will have value early, though...even with the 2 big name losses, as the books are always usually in love with Brodeur. You're right though, FF....with Weekes now in the backup roll...Brodeur likely gets under 70 starts this year.

3) Couldn't agree more...I love Colorado this year. They have a great 1-2 punch up the middle with Sakic and Stastny (expect a huge year for him), and are deep up front with Smyth, Hejduk (who had a huge 2nd half), Arneson, Wolski, Brunette, Svatos and newcomer Hlinka. Very good, fast young defence with Liles, Leopold, Clark & Skraskins, and added a shutdown penalty killer in Scott Hannan. Very deep solid team, who I think will win that division over Calgary. Not sure if the books will catagorize them as elite, like the should be.

4) Agree here as well....still some big names, but yes....aging. They really added nothing of significance (although they get a healthy Morrow back), and I don't see where the goals are going to come from. Modano? Please. Jokinen, Letinen? No way. Bunch of defesive forwards on this team. Turco is always a top 5 goalie however, and good top 2 defenceman in Boucher and Zubov....but this is a bigtime under team all year IMO. Keep an eye on those Dallas totals early...anything 5.5/6, hit the under IMO.

5) This is one team I think might get the most value, early. This is still a good hockey club. Yes they lost Kariya, Timonen, and the over-rated Hartnell, but like Buffalo and NJ, they could afford to lose those guys with the core of youngsters they had stockpiled. No Timonen? OK, give more minutes to Weber (who will prove to be 3 times the player Timonen ever was), Suter and Hamhuis...all future top-2 defenceman. Add that to Zidlicky, and the addition of stay-at-home guy DeVries, and this will be one of the best back-ends in the league, IMO. Up front, future star, and Pavel Bure clone, Radulov steps in for Karyia without missing a beat...add him to leftovers, and solid, good forwards Arnott, Legwand, Erat, Dumont, Sullivan (hurt), as well as a defensive line of Gelinas, Bonk & Fiddler, and that is a solid forward core. They lost Vokoun, sure, but once again, they could afford too, with Chris Mason playing every bit as good as Tommy last year, and ready to prove himself as a top 10 backstopper. This is a playoff team folks, and just might be some value in them because of the percieved big losses, and the ownership struggles. I'll be backing them early.

6) Kings....yeah, Lots of good youngsters up front who should really fill the net, Kopitar and Cammelleri line should really fly, Frolov can light it up....but I'm not sure about their backend or their weakness in net...definitely an OVER team.

7) Florida's a bubble team...likely 8/9/10 IMO. Good youngsters ready to become stars? (Horton, Weiss, Boumeester). Vokoun was a great pickup, and with him and a healthy Ollie they stay competitive, but I don't see the depth to be a top team.

8) Agree...injury problems, no Neidermayer, Selenne...champs might see some inflated lines, but they will be there in the end...too deep....how will Bertuzzi respond?

9) Thrashers take a huge step back, IMO....very thin on defence, and the 3 players who get ALL the icetime in Atlanta (Hossa/Kovalchuk/Kozlov) could be the 3 worst defensive forwards in hockey, and could collectively write a very entertaining book on the art of cherry-picking. Lehtonen is solid, but has been hurt alot, and they have no depth up front or on defence. Not a way to build a team at all with a few floating stars up front, surrounded by a bunch of scrubs. Last place.

Boston...going nowhere...and what do the Bruins have after the overrated Chara on defence? Wideman? Alberts? Ference? Aaron Ward? LMAO!! Please. And I'm sure we'll see this year that Manny Fernandez was more of a product of the Lemaire system in Minny, and his stats will no doubt be ALOT different playing behind those brutal scrubs on defence in front of him. Top 2 forward lines? ...Savard soft, Murray past his prime. Kobasew, 3rd line talent. Sturm, so what. Good youngsters in Bergeron & Kessel, but not enough talent to be a playoff contender, IMO. Nothing here in the way of wagering advantages, as the books likely know they will blow.

Tampa....bottom end playoff team...the big three keeps 'em competitive, goaltending the big question.....Big names might give them inflated lines, but they are only an 8th seed type team, IMO

Columbus...horrible again...Zherdev looks like a bust, still no goaltending, Federov old and perma-injured, same with Peca, bunch of scrubs on defence....last place type talent. Just horrible. Nash must be in hell.

Other observations...

A) I think Buffalo is still a powerhouse. Big deal...they lost Briere, and the overrated Drury. They still have Miller in net. They still have the same good, fast, young defence. Roy ready to break out on that killer Afinaganov/Vanek/Roy first line. Connelly back. Forwards Gaustad, Pominville, Kotalik, Hecht & Stafford are good players, and ready to step up. I think the Sabres don't lose a step, and repeat as divison champs over Ottawa. It's all about depth, and speed, folks...and this team has it. The youngsters get another year, and I think that outweighs the losses of the big 2.

B) Carolina bounces back, with "return to form" years by Staal and Ward. Apparentely Ward is in great shape, and ready to be a star. Staal's sophmore "slump" (lol..he still had 70 points) an abberation, IMO...a healthy Cole, and Brindamour, Whitney, Stillman and Williams gives them a good core. Might be some value with a healthy, rejuvinated Canes team, IMO...as they might be perceived as a bottom feeder b/c of last year.

C) Could be some value in the Oilers. They will be improved, and make the playoffs IMO. Some of these kids are starting to gel, and injuries hurt them last year.

D) Could be some value in the Wild, for some reason they are perceived as a weak team IMO, but Lemaire always gets results, this Backstrom kid in net could be the next big Euro Goalie star, and a healthy Gaborik is scary. Not a team anyone usually talks about, bu I see them firmly in the playoffs.

E) Leafs make the playoffs....missed by one point last year, as injuries to Sundin, Tucker and Kaberle killed us. Lack of depth in net, being forced to play the average Raycroft every night hurt as well. Add a very good Toskala, and even more goals with Blake, and this is a playoff team. Defence a question mark, but Kaberle is allstar quality, Mcabe gets drilled for his contract (overpaid), but is still a good defenceman who can get points, Kubina is not **** after one down year (b/c of the spotlight of Toronto, IMO)...I see a rebound from him, Gill was solid stay-at-home guy, and was our best +/- dman, and another year of seasoning for Coliacovo and White, future top 4 guys. I like the team. Will they make the playoffs? yes. Will they get past the first round? Probably not.

F) Two other teams is see having better years are Washington (great unis!) and St. Louis. Both have solid goaltending. Both made nice additions up front (Ovechkin with more help). St. louis is strong on the back end, but a little young (Brewer, Erik Johnson, Christian Backman, Barret Jackman, Jay McKee) and up front a good mixture of veteran former stars with a bit left (Tkachuk, Kariya, Wieght), and youngsters with upside (Stepniak, Boyes, Cajanek). St. Louis back to the playoffs this year, IMO...could be some value early with them....Washington an improved, playoff bubble team, I can see having some value, as they are perceived as total ****.

G) Other unmentioned teams that will be good, as expected, nothing new...Penguins (scary offence), Detroit, Ottawa, San Jose. Other unmentioned teams that will blow, as expected...Coyotes, Islanders, Habs.


NHL IS BACK, BABY!

[FlyersFan]

JML- i missed the hit and have been so busy i didn't hear about anything other than PHI has injuries ALREADY...lol.

Lets hope we get some nice line value on COL before the books and public catch up to them. Good call on CAR. That is a team i sort of forgot to even take a look at. I also agree on MIN as long as Backstrom can be solid in net. I don't see them with a ton of firepower on Offense.

As far as the leafs go, they have to show me they can play solid hockey and not lose games on bonehead penalties and every other way they seem to lose the past few seasons. Talent wise they are a top 8 team, but defensively they still are a sieve, IMO. Toskala may find the going a little tougher in TOR. We'll see how good he is for sure. I do think they get in as you mentioned. As much as i can't stand the leafs, it is good for hockey with teams like TOR in the playoffs.


WAS should be a playoff team this year as well if they can shore up the back end and if Kolzig still has some gas left in the tank. Semin will have a breakout year, IMO, even better than last year. They need to find consistency on the PP and hopefully for them Poti brings that. Dude is an enigma and is a liability defensively which is why he isn't a ranger anymore. But he is good offensively and on the PP.


On another note, not a fan of these teams, but i would love to see CHI and BOS get back to the playoffs, especially CHI. NHL is better for it if they do. I think with all the new teams (10) over the past 10 years, the original 6 matchups are kind of losing some ink. Miss the old Norris division with CHI, TOR, MIN, STL and DET. But that is a time gone by.

good stuff JML......looking forward to the drop of the puck...

[Angelus]

Wow, great thoughts from both of you.

Teams to fade (especially early):
Oilers, Flames (notoriously slow starters), Ducks, Preds (guess I disagree with you guys), Sabres (maybe)

Teams to tail
Avs, Capitals (maybe), Rangers, Sharks, Sens (if you can stand the juice)

Notes:
- Leafs do NOT make the playoffs...sorry JML...Toskala isn't the answer to anything
- Oilers do NOT make the playoffs...who is going to score goals?? No forward depth at all.
- Flyers do NOT make the playoffs...throwing money at a problem rarely solves said problem.

Could be a long season for the three of us, LOL!

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Angelus

Wow, great thoughts from both of you.

Teams to fade (especially early):
Oilers, Flames (notoriously slow starters), Ducks, Preds (guess I disagree with you guys), Sabres (maybe)

Teams to tail
Avs, Capitals (maybe), Rangers, Sharks, Sens (if you can stand the juice)

Notes:
- Leafs do NOT make the playoffs...sorry JML...Toskala isn't the answer to anything
- Oilers do NOT make the playoffs...who is going to score goals?? No forward depth at all.
- Flyers do NOT make the playoffs...throwing money at a problem rarely solves said problem.

Could be a long season for the three of us, LOL!

Angelus- i fear we may be paying -240's and up for the NYR all season long. I think they may be juiced out of sight. I may actually look to play against them early before they gel as a group. Agree on SAN, especially at home. They are a streaky team so that is something to pay attention to (both ways). Good point on CAL being slow starters. didn't remember that (that is why these threads are great).

I hate to say it, but your prediction may come true. TOR needs to prove it can win when it is supposed to and cut down on all the mental and defensive blunders. OILCAN just doesn't have enough up front and i think they are at the disadvantage of playing 4 playoff caliber teams (VAN mlehhhh maybe) a bunch of times in their own division. Penner is going to be under the gun big time up there, Souray as well. OILCAN barely snuck in as an 8th seed 2 years ago with much more talent. I think it is 10th place in the West for them. And on to my PHI. Injuries all over the place already. I agree to a point that tossing money at a situation isn't always good. But at least this time they tossed money at some players who are capable of playing in the new NHL. Their problem is that unlike BUF, none of their young guys have stepped up. Carter is an enigma....great one night with 7 SOG and then disappears for 2 games. Richards is never going to be anything more than a 3rd line/4th line center. And Umberger can't stay out of the MASH unit. Eager plays hard but he is a mental midget at times and takes some really dumb penalties which offsets a lot of the good things he does. Gagne needs to prove he isn't the Reggie Miller of the NHL....set him up for an open shot he is great, ask him to create and he can't get his own shot. Defensively they are better, but how much better. Went from probably a D- to a B- in net, and an F defensively to about a C. Really depends on if they can stay healthy and gel as a unit.

but lets be honest about the East, IMO. Other than NYR, PIT and probably BUF, there isn't a single team that is guaranteed a spot. I see about 8 or so teams (PHI, NJD, CAR, ATL, WAS, MTL, TAM, TOR, and maybe even FLA) that are going to battle for the last 5 spots. They all have strengths and weaknesses. I think the East is as wide open as i can ever remember it being.

good stuff Angelus....