NHL thursday with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Down day yesterday with a bad read on one game and a couple I think I made the right play on but just weren't gonna win that given day. The sabres was the bad read I guess the loss of Drury and Briere is having a far bigger impact on the mentality of the squad than I thought it would as they seem lost. Anyway on to today:

Bruins ml - 133 to win 2 units

Most times I would take a western squad over an eastern one but I like the make up of this bruins squad. I also like the hawks squad but it's young and have had the benefit of starting off the year with a favorable sched that saw them play 6 of 9 at home which allowed them to get off to a good start. Young teams traditionally are strong at home but prone to faltering on the road and going into Boston against a disciplined Bruins squad is a tough task. The bruins have had to face a heavy road sched to start the season and came out of it with a winning record and are as of yet undefeated at home. The bruins have the better special team units, take fewer penalties, and have a structured game plan where the hawks seem to adjust to the team they're playing. I look for Boston to impose it's defensive gameplan in this one and I'm also looking for a bounce back effort after a beatdown by the habs in which the Bruins got a bad result off a poor game by fernandez. Having Thomas back in the pipes makes a huge difference as he's been playing extremely well. Digging a bit, of the 4 games the hawks have played vs teams that would be similar in style to the bruins the hawks are 1-3, fully deserving of that 1 win but needing to pull it out with 2 seconds remaining and then winning in ot so the more defensive the game the less success they've had based on the small sample size we have to work with so far.

Bruins/Hawks U5.5 @ -105 to win 1 unit

I don't believe the hawks have a real team identity as of yet and are getting by with some hard work and good play from youngsters but they seem to fall into whatever style the other team is playing. Against teams that play tighter defense they played equally tight defense, against teams that like to open it up they opened it up. The bruins are going to want this to be a low scoring game and wanting to limit shots and chances so I look for the hawks to counter with much of the same. Both teams have been under squads for the year. Also both teams got lit up in their last games so both teams will be wanting to play tighter today.

Wild - 139 to win 2.5 units

If this were in any other spot other than a b2b, 4 in 6 night spot this would be a bigger play but at the price I'm biting. The oil have major troubles with the wild and without Pitkanen and Souray they shouldn't find it any easier tonight. Hopefully Lemaire is choked with his team for the collapse yesterday and has them ready to go tonight despite any potential drag from the sched. The stats speak for themselves tho minny is better on the pp and pk, they are putting up more offense and play better defensively, while Rolly has been good the wilds tandom has been better. Wild are 8-1-2 in its last 11 in edmonton and 13-3 in its last 16 overall with the oil. Who knows it could be a trap line suckering me in but if the wild have the legs they should win.

Duckies -.5 in regulation @ -130 to win 2 units

The sched for the duckies is finally opening up and giving them a chance to catch their breath after a torid pace to the start of the season. They aren't playing great hockey but getting a bad dogs team in your own yard seems as good a spot to lay a beating and work out some of the kinks as any. Dogs are capable of upsets from time to time but I like them more so at home or in a spot where a team is likely to overlook them. Coming off 2 straight losses isn't a spot I would think the ducks can or will overlook them. The road swing was a short one for the ducks so I'm not expecting any sort of letdown game from the return home. Not having to play a trap team for a third straight game should also help the ducks. I didn't want to lay the huge chalk, if this team can't get this game done in regulation then it's got some serious problems.

Pitt -.5 in regulation @ -117 to win 2 units

Another regulation time play but I'm trying to limit my chalk in hockey as it's getting insane. 2 teams going completely opposite directions, the leafs seem to be trending backwards with losses to chicago and atlanta at home now they hit the road. For a team with a lot of expectations at home the road can be a great place to refind your game but the leafs problems aren't expectations its beyond that and having a heart and soul guy like Tucker out doesn't help. For a team rolling like the pens now are home is a great place to play. Fleury seems to have found his form and when he's on this pitt team is scary as they'll open it up as good as anybody in the league. The last time these 2 teams met Toskala played out of his skull and the pens still got the W despite Sabourins attempt to spot them a lead. Torontos 1-10 in its last 11 road games, Pitt is a strong home squad, the fave is 7-2 in the last 9 between these 2, looking for the same result here.

NJ/NYR u5 @ +105 x 1 unit

Both teams have goalies that can shut down the opposition and both teams are struggling to light the lamps. The under has gone 7-2-2 in the last 11 in new york. I'm not fighting that trend the way these guys are playing.

Dallas/LA o 5.5 @ -116 to win 1 unit

LA is playing good hockey at the moment but defense has never been the hallmark of a Crow coached team, they'll trade chances and like to light the lamp and they have the players to do it there. They should be good for a couple at least. Meanwhile dallas will feast on the turnovers the kings give up. Dallas should be able to put up 3+. Labarbera is the question mark in this one, if he plays great this one stalls at 5, if he gives up anything soft the kings open it up and this one sails over.

GL everyone

[Angelus]

GL. Wild roll today...

[NittanyLions94]

flmm, I'm nervous about playing the Wild in that spot but I have been eyeing up the under. What are your thoughts on that? Edmonton struggles to score and so does Minnesota, and Minnesota plays awesome D. Thanks for the help.

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by NittanyLions94

flmm, I'm nervous about playing the Wild in that spot but I have been eyeing up the under. What are your thoughts on that? Edmonton struggles to score and so does Minnesota, and Minnesota plays awesome D. Thanks for the help.

yeah bro Im nervous about it as well but hopefully it goes well. I like the under and may still play it as well, Harding has been tough in the pipes and both teams offenses dont lend well to the over. GL if you decide to play it

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Down day yesterday with a bad read on one game and a couple I think I made the right play on but just weren't gonna win that given day. The sabres was the bad read I guess the loss of Drury and Briere is having a far bigger impact on the mentality of the squad than I thought it would as they seem lost. Anyway on to today:

Bruins ml - 133 to win 2 units WIN + 2 units

Most times I would take a western squad over an eastern one but I like the make up of this bruins squad. I also like the hawks squad but it's young and have had the benefit of starting off the year with a favorable sched that saw them play 6 of 9 at home which allowed them to get off to a good start. Young teams traditionally are strong at home but prone to faltering on the road and going into Boston against a disciplined Bruins squad is a tough task. The bruins have had to face a heavy road sched to start the season and came out of it with a winning record and are as of yet undefeated at home. The bruins have the better special team units, take fewer penalties, and have a structured game plan where the hawks seem to adjust to the team they're playing. I look for Boston to impose it's defensive gameplan in this one and I'm also looking for a bounce back effort after a beatdown by the habs in which the Bruins got a bad result off a poor game by fernandez. Having Thomas back in the pipes makes a huge difference as he's been playing extremely well. Digging a bit, of the 4 games the hawks have played vs teams that would be similar in style to the bruins the hawks are 1-3, fully deserving of that 1 win but needing to pull it out with 2 seconds remaining and then winning in ot so the more defensive the game the less success they've had based on the small sample size we have to work with so far.

Bruins/Hawks U5.5 @ -105 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

I don't believe the hawks have a real team identity as of yet and are getting by with some hard work and good play from youngsters but they seem to fall into whatever style the other team is playing. Against teams that play tighter defense they played equally tight defense, against teams that like to open it up they opened it up. The bruins are going to want this to be a low scoring game and wanting to limit shots and chances so I look for the hawks to counter with much of the same. Both teams have been under squads for the year. Also both teams got lit up in their last games so both teams will be wanting to play tighter today.

Wild - 139 to win 2.5 units LOSS -3.48 units

If this were in any other spot other than a b2b, 4 in 6 night spot this would be a bigger play but at the price I'm biting. The oil have major troubles with the wild and without Pitkanen and Souray they shouldn't find it any easier tonight. Hopefully Lemaire is choked with his team for the collapse yesterday and has them ready to go tonight despite any potential drag from the sched. The stats speak for themselves tho minny is better on the pp and pk, they are putting up more offense and play better defensively, while Rolly has been good the wilds tandom has been better. Wild are 8-1-2 in its last 11 in edmonton and 13-3 in its last 16 overall with the oil. Who knows it could be a trap line suckering me in but if the wild have the legs they should win.

Duckies -.5 in regulation @ -130 to win 2 units LOSS - 2.6 units

The sched for the duckies is finally opening up and giving them a chance to catch their breath after a torid pace to the start of the season. They aren't playing great hockey but getting a bad dogs team in your own yard seems as good a spot to lay a beating and work out some of the kinks as any. Dogs are capable of upsets from time to time but I like them more so at home or in a spot where a team is likely to overlook them. Coming off 2 straight losses isn't a spot I would think the ducks can or will overlook them. The road swing was a short one for the ducks so I'm not expecting any sort of letdown game from the return home. Not having to play a trap team for a third straight game should also help the ducks. I didn't want to lay the huge chalk, if this team can't get this game done in regulation then it's got some serious problems.

Pitt -.5 in regulation @ -117 to win 2 units LOSS -2.34 units

Another regulation time play but I'm trying to limit my chalk in hockey as it's getting insane. 2 teams going completely opposite directions, the leafs seem to be trending backwards with losses to chicago and atlanta at home now they hit the road. For a team with a lot of expectations at home the road can be a great place to refind your game but the leafs problems aren't expectations its beyond that and having a heart and soul guy like Tucker out doesn't help. For a team rolling like the pens now are home is a great place to play. Fleury seems to have found his form and when he's on this pitt team is scary as they'll open it up as good as anybody in the league. The last time these 2 teams met Toskala played out of his skull and the pens still got the W despite Sabourins attempt to spot them a lead. Torontos 1-10 in its last 11 road games, Pitt is a strong home squad, the fave is 7-2 in the last 9 between these 2, looking for the same result here.

NJ/NYR u5 @ +105 x 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Both teams have goalies that can shut down the opposition and both teams are struggling to light the lamps. The under has gone 7-2-2 in the last 11 in new york. I'm not fighting that trend the way these guys are playing.

Dallas/LA o 5.5 @ -116 to win 1 unit LOSS - 1.16 units

LA is playing good hockey at the moment but defense has never been the hallmark of a Crow coached team, they'll trade chances and like to light the lamp and they have the players to do it there. They should be good for a couple at least. Meanwhile dallas will feast on the turnovers the kings give up. Dallas should be able to put up 3+. Labarbera is the question mark in this one, if he plays great this one stalls at 5, if he gives up anything soft the kings open it up and this one sails over.

GL everyone

3-5 -5.58 units

just updating