NHL friday with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

An ugly sched today imo, heavy chalk on the favorites and most of the other games have the better team on a back to back or playing a team thats desperate for a win. Not ideal betting conditions unless you like the dogs.

Canes are a mess at home and I dont trust them to get by anybody these days, Pitts good value but off a game last night I know I dont wanna back them.

Struggling thrash as home dogs against one of the hottest teams in the league. Can make a case for either side so im on the fence with this one too.

Wings should win but -370 you gotta be kidding me, im tempted to take the +340 just cause that price is insane.

Sabres should win, montreal needs to win badly sabres depleted. -185s a bit to steep with those factors.

Dallas off a game last night should roll over Columbus but this is 3 in 4 nights and first game off a short roadie against a team thats not exciting to play against, -250s too steep here too.

so boiled it down to 2 games...

Anaheim - 132 to win 1 unit over SJ

I would love this play and back it heavier if the ducks hadn't just gone the distance with LA last night but this is a favorable match up for the ducks imo. SJ is looking to be missing Marleau and Hannan, which makes them at best a 2 line team up front in terms of offense and removes arguably their best shut down dman. Marleau in lets Pavelski run the third line, givingthem a decent third line option but without Marleau that 2nd line is weak and I don't rate their 4th line as much of anything. Anaheims top dmen pairings are as good as there is in the league and will be able to match up with the sharks offensive lines. Without Hannan SJ is going to have to rely on McClaren, Rivet and Vlasic to be the defensive dmen, Rivets new to the system and a first game against western teams he's not used to facing with a new d partner isn't an easy transition. The sharks had trouble containing the ducks with Hannan in, a new fit and Hannan out isn't the answer, they need Rivet and Hannan both in the line up with those other 2 to give them some needed d strength. The ducks aren't terribly deep offensivly but can roll a couple strong offensive lines and the other 2 can pop in goals but they play very physical on those bottom 2 lines and the pahlson line is a nasty checking line and with Carlyle having last change you can bet Big Joes gonna have that line matched up on him all night. A couple factors play for the sharks, one I mentioned is the ducks played last night but the 2nd is they've lost a few in a row here and are hungry coming in and with new additions they are looking to make a statement. In the end for me it came down to match up, which team was a more complete team right now, healthier and how dominant that team is at home.

and

Toronto + 170 x 1 unit over NJ

Tough to go against the devils at home but these teams have played each other down to a standstill all season long. 2-1 in toronto for the devils, 7-6 in shootout for the devils in NJ. A bounce here or there and the leafs could've had a couple wins instead of a couple losses. A key in those losses was Gionta who had an assist in the 2-1 but a third period hat trick and a shootout goal to bring the team from behind in the other, he's been on the mend the last 7 games and is reportedly riding the pine again today. The devils aren't deep offensivly to begin with so his loss doesn't help matters. The leafs have 2 games in hand over 8th place montreal and 3 points to catch them so they need to win games if they want to make the playoffs. With buffalo again after this game and their major troubles with the sabres this game becomes even more important. The devils have a chance for first in the conference and that is about all they are playing for at this point. In terms of need this one is much more important to the leafs. Leafs are a much better road team than they are a home team which helps. Both these teams have similar special team numbers since the break so no decided advantage there. The big question is which Raycroft shows up for the leafs, they need the one who can steal them a game or at least not give it away. Bottom line for me is I see this as a value play, leafs need it more, a key to the 2 wins for the devils Gionta is out, Brodeurs had a history of struggles against the leafs (12-13 lifetime), they've played down to the wire both other times this season and the leafs are strong on the road. At + 170 its worth the risk.

Gl guys

[The Evil Empire]

Nice write up.i agree not much out there tonight.I am a big devils fan and I also agree with the money on toronto.But I think I like the over even better.Leafs score alot of goals and let in alot.Sometimes believe or not the devils open up their play style just to keep the goal scorers happy.So I believe the devils play crappy tonight and let up some goals and score some.Over 5.5 looks good here.4-3 5-4 type score that can go either way..Gl

[vazman05]

leaning on the ducks also....gl today flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

leafs wont stop shooting themselves in the foot with penalties, 5 to 1 ratio so far

[flmmkrz]

Devils playing dirty and games being poorly officiated as well. What a game

[vazman05]

im watching the habs/sabres game and boy is this a wild one....7 goals, and were only in the 2nd period......

[vazman05]

the hit by cam jansen on kaberle....that crap doesnt belong in the nhl....just as dirty as the drury hit....you have to start suspending these goons.....

[vazman05]

wow maple leafs take the lead......

[flmmkrz]

yup leafs take the lead and playing a bit better than the devils imo but the refs strike again and call a penalty with under 3 minutes left. This crew wants to feel a part of the game.

[vazman05]

welp there goes that lead....

[vazman05]

leafs/devils in SHO

[vazman05]

leafs win....nice call

[flmmkrz]

shootout win, leafs are money. Very lucky with the way the refs were calling this one. Way to go leafs.

[vazman05]

cant believe the refs didnt call a penalty on that dirty hit that ws put on kaberle.....

[The Evil Empire]

Got a little lucky on the over tonight sure did not look like it was going to go that way.As for the bad no call I am a devils fan. It should have been a penalty for sure the hit was 1 second too late.But scott stevens brought up a good point during the period intermission.basically said 10 years ago that was how hockey was played.Basically refferring to how kaberle pretty much did not expect to get hit ,skating backwards head down,it is the nhl that has made these players drop there guard down from plays like this.He basically called the game a no frills game . With the light checks and no hitting.the hit would have been fine if just was a second earlier.i think janseen was benched also after that play.