NHL 2008-2009 NHL Betting

[FlyersFan]

Last year was the first losing season i have had in about 5 years. I got crushed last year as did many on this site. So i have spent some time putting together what i feel is a sort of "playbook" for the upcoming NHL season. I went back over all kinds of wagers i had made, as well as many wagers from some of the other top regulars on this site.

One problem i have had is that i get into CFB and then all of a sudden hockey is starting and i haven't put any time into a gameplan or much of anything, which is why i wanted to post this early this year. I could care less if you follow it or not, use parts of it, none of it....but it is going to be the cruxt of what i will do this year at least to start.

FOR STARTERS: there is going to be a definite equipment limit with goaltender's pads this year. I read a great article that butterfly goaltenders will have a lot more susceptibility to 5-hole goals. The whole premise of the butterfly is to take away the whole bottom of the net. The reason it has been so successful is due to the fact that the pads form a basic fortress. With the rounding and contouring of the pads, there will be some defitnite 5-hole goals that you may not have seen in previous years. That may or may not effect the totals in games.

LAST YEAR's PITFALLS: I went back and looked at a lot of stuff and came up with some areas that seemed to kill myself and others.

(a) Loading up on plays.........
(b) betting props that were too clearly the right side
(c) betting on fat favorites or stupid dogs
(d) the old "have to" syndrome....ie they have to win tonight.....
(e) tossing units out on long shots ie..."giving it a shot" plays.
(f) board on the wrong side and nobody speaking up

those seemed to be the cruxt of what nailed everyone last year. So i have come up with a plan for this season.

(A)NO PLAYS ON ANYONE OVER -140........i have been as guilty as anyone in looking at SAN or DET at home to beat like Columbus or someone like that. Too many times in the regular season teams just don't show up. It is really hard to have losses on games at like -170, -200 etc...and then have winning nights. A loss on a team at -200 basically (on a 2Unit standard play) means you have to win 2 other games to just break even. I think there are times to play on favorites and that are good plays. Just within reason.

(B)NO PLAYS ON DOGS OVER +160............i think the same goes for dogs. Sure ATL is going to beat DET sometime as a +200 dog, but it isn't going to happen that often so quit trying to guess when it does. There are plenty of nice dog lines in the +140's, +120's that are great plays. Where the line is maybe just off some due to public perception. I think that it is a complete waste to "throw **** at the wall and see what sticks" with large dogs. Remember a "unit here and a unit there" doesn't seem like a lot, until you add it all up at the end of the season. Look for good teams that are undervalued like maybe a young chicago team catching +120 at home vs. a Dallas or Detroit.

(C)LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BET AGAINST THE "EXPECTED RESULT" IN PROPS.......i really got into prop betting 2 years ago and i've never had the success in it i thought i could have. One thing i noticed last year is that the books have caught up to "the right side" and have actually gone rediculously juiced on these plays. For instance, lets say PHI is the top 1st period scoring team....you usually get a prop like PHI/SO and So Over1 1/2 1P -170. I found that "the expected outcome" of prop bets really was 50/50 in the end. but the juice is a killer. So my attitude this year is to attack in the opposite direction. I am going to look for spots where the "expected outcome" isn't going to happen and i can get nice odds. For instance a night when a hot 1P team runs up against a hot goalie, a good defensive 1P team etc......Same goes for team totals. If the books want to juice the expected outcomes heavily, then i'll just fish on the other side of the pond so to speak. Especially when the non-expected result seems to turn up as much as the expected one.

(D)FLAT BETTING 2UNITS/GAME.......i did it....JML did it......we were probably the 2 biggest offenders.....the old.....OTT -160 8Units........there just is no hockey game that is any better play than another because they all get played on the ice and not on paper. You really have no way of knowing if a team really and truly is going to come to play. I can't tell you how many times i read PHI postgame morning skate blogs from coaches and they would say how ready the team was to play and how big a game it was....only for them to not show up. Every blue moon i can see betting 2x your normal units on a game if you really really think you have an angle and are willing to stick your neck out. But those should be very few and far between. I've come back to the conclusion that steady wins the race in hockey.

(E)SCHEDULING.....honestly hasn't been the factor that it once was before the changes in scheduling. HOWEVER, this year is possibly going to be back to the days of old as teams will be playing cross country more this season. The best spot in hockey still is the first game back after a long road trip and the last game of the road trip. I will continue to bet those "system plays" but i am going to steer clear of a lot of the 3I4 type bets as those really seemed to have no bearing on teams' play last year.

(F)NOT FORCING PLAYS.....had a bad habit of this last year, as did JML, IMO. I kept looking for angles that weren't there etc.. This year if i only have 1 play a day for a couple of days then so be it. I got really out there with some prop betting last year which i still think is a good money opportunity. But i was almost trying to find things too much.

(G)NO REDUNDENCY OF PLAYS.....wow was i THE prime offeneder here. Betting TAM team over, the Game over and TAM....only to have FLA beat TAM 3-0.......i essentially was losing multiple units on the same game. I am going to go with my best angle on a game this year. If i think the play is to take the team, i will take the team, if it's to take the total etc.....then i will. But it really isn't smart to bet results that are essentially "if a then b" type results.

(H)PLAYER PROPS....i hit those nicely 2 years ago and i didn't look into them much last year but i am going to go back at them. Sometimes you will really find a prop that is off.

(I)GOING WITH THE BEST..............i made a note to JML on this last year i remember at the end of the year, but it was too late for either of us...lol. I really think that having a card with like 6 or 7 plays all the time is just stupid. Way too much can happen during a season and we all play too much marginal stuff. I read writeups from people and think, that is a forced play...or not so sure about that one.......and i am guilty too. This season i am going to only come with what i feel are the strongest plays on the card. BB is good about that. Some days in baseball he only has 1 play, some days he has like 8. It's a tough discipline as you look at your card and you think..."wow, i only have 2 plays...gotta find a couple of more"....usually the couple more you find you wish you hadn't found in the long run. This means some days not having a play!

(J)TAKE SOME BREAKS.......nothing wrong with stepping away for a few days and recharging the battery. Preferably we don't all do it at the same time....lol. 6 months of cappnig hockey is a complete grind and even when you're winning it can beat you down and get old.




that is pretty much the playbook i am using this year. I wanted to post it for everyone just as food for thought if anyone is interested. Please feel free to comment either way. It's nothing earth shattering or that we probably haven't all though of....but i wanted to organize it into some sore of attack plan. It's stupid to do anything in life without a plan, including gambling.

At the end of the day, living in the states i really have no one to talk hockey with. I have 1 friend that will talk hockey so it would be nice to get some discussion going on the board this year and put our heads together to make some money. This is really the only outlet i have to enjoy the sport with anyone else.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Great stuff FF!

We were a bit lazy last year, and I got off to a horrible start by making too many plays, and playing hunches for ****s and giggles. Just dumb. Fought back a bit, but the damage was done. Not going to make the same mistakes this year, and will be looking forward to your insight as always...

Let's get 'em this year

[Skinsfan]

props to you FF.... it's not often you see someone really analyze what they are doing (in anything in life, really) and try to make objective decisions to improve performance.

As always, you will remain my first "go to" when it comes to capping/tailing hockey games

[Stifler's Mom]

Good stuff.

I have to say though, that personally I have learned that there are some plays at -200 that are excellent value (imagine that....coming from me) where the team should be favored by a ton more, and I have also found quite a few +200 dogs that should have been pick ems. Now I'm talking baseball more than hockey here, but same idea since they're both primarily ml sports.

I have actually had pretty much success playing both big dogs and big faves this year in bases....but in a manner where I actually determined they were a good play by handicapping the game, not by just using the old "Detroit is -250 tonight, so it's just a given that they'll win", or "Tampa Bay is +210, so that's value" without really thinking it thru. I think that's the key.

Way too many public Joes just think any big fave will be a winner, and I know I was just as guilty at times of just thinking anything over +200 was good "value", and it kicked my ass that one MLB season 2 years back, and even as recently as with football and basketball this past winter at times, although to a much lesser degree.

Point is, my new philosophy is to handicap all the games like normal, and then decide if the price is worth it....where as in the past, I just eliminated any fave over like -150, and then looked for any stupid excuse to take the dog, which is obviously what you're eluding to when you say throwing **** at the wall to see what sticks.

Live and learn i guess....for all of us.

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, it's funny how you mention "board on the wrong side, but no one speaking up"

You have no idea how many times I have wanted to speak up when i felt like the whole board was jumping off a bottomless cliff with a certain play in any sport. Actually, I used to be very opinionated here (well, more at the old place), but got tired of putting up with the chest thumpers when i turned out to be wrong, and even more so, when i was RIGHT, but the play still lost by bad luck, and i had to hear it.

It has gotten to the point where I just post my plays, keep my mouth shut for the most part, and people can do what they want with my posts. Follow, fade, ignore, whatever. All because a few ****faces at the old place who just couldn't ******* wait for me to have a suck ass day so they could get their ****ty little comments in....and those of you who have been around as long (or longer) than me know who i'm talking about.

It got worse when i became a mod, because i felt like i couldn't even fight back, cause then it looked like i was using my mod capabilities to my advantage if i banned someone, or whatever.

It's unfortunate really, cause i love the discussions.......and the analysis with people's plays and discussion threads are what really makes for determining winners, imho

Anyway, maybe starting now i'll start giving my opinion more again....since I know i like reading everyone else's. And ****, i don't care if the whole place disagrees with me, as long as it's in a civil manner, lol

[FlyersFan]

skins, JML- THX!...here's to a great 2008-2009 betting campaign.

Stiffy- here are my thoughts on your posts.

(a) there has never been enough discussion here, IMO. i try and always post my thoughts. i have never really understood just posting a play because you have no idea what the thought process is behind it. the WORST capper on this site (rothko, but i won't mention names...) can still have a great play on a game and the BEST cappers can still come out on the wrong side of things. Very rarely will i ever change my side on a play but there have been plentyof times where i was not fully committed to something and read a writeup and made it a no play. So IMO nobody is ever wrong and i think dialogue is a good thing. I think sometimes people perceive return contrary thoughts as criticism. I always post my thoughts if i have them on a game. In the end, they are just my thoughts and we're all right and we're all wrong some of the time.

(b) I really don't think that it is ever worth it playing teams that are -200's and +200's. My reasoning is that even though you think you get perceived value, a loss on a game like that over the course of time really adds up. When SAN plays CBJ and they are -220 at home last year, and im thinking wow...they should be about -300 and that's a great play. CBJ was traveling in their 3rd time zone in the past 4 nights worth of games. SAN was rested....list went on and on and on.......SAN didn't show up and somehow got out of the game with a 2-1 win. You would really have to have been an idiot or a "guesser" to have taken CBJ in that spot, but on the flip side, was it really worth -220 to find out if SAN was the right side on the score sheet? My answer keeps coming back to no. If you got rid of all the plays i made last year outside of that range, i had a very good season believe it or not. It was the plays outside that range on BOTH sides that made my year what it was. Which is why i am playing by that set of rules now. There are tons of games with great value inside of -150 and +150 each week.

in the end we all cap different but i just wanted to post this as food for thought.

[NittanyLions94]

FF I'm with ya on a bunch of that. Can't wait for the pucks to start droppin again

[Angelus]

Great thread FF.

I made a tonne of errors that I do not plan on repeating this season. I think my biggest problem was playing too many games and then fading the Oilers at the end of the season. That being said, after going through all my plays, the team I did the best on (either tailing or fading) is the Oilers.

Therefore, my plan for this upcoming season is to limit my plays (one or two a day) but follow the Oil closer than ever and make a play on most of their games. In fact, when betting ON the Oilers last year, I made 23 units.