JML Thursday >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

NHL YTD: 9-12, -8.05


Devils -142 vs Thrashers - 1.5 Units
Devils PL +209 vs Thrashers - 0.5 Units
Devils were playing their usual tight defensive hockey until they met the hot Rangers. They should outmatch the Thrashers and even pot a few tonight against the leagues worst defence.

Lightning -157 vs Islanders - 1.5 Units
Lightning PL +180 vs Islanders - 0.5 Units
Perfect spot for the Bolts to get their first win, playing at home against the bad Islanders. All signs point to Dipietro making his first start Saturday for the Isles, so we get to play against Macdonald, who's been bad so far this year for NY. All that TB talent up front could break out tonight.

Flyers +119 vs Avalanche - 2 Units
This has to be the first time Andrew Raycroft has been favoured since his Bruin days. Great spot for the Flyers to get their first win. Raycroft could have been the worst goalie in the league last year, and shouldn't be favoured against a good team like the Flyers who have a lot of talent up front. Budaj has not been good, but option #2 isn't the answer either. Colorado looks to be in trouble on the back end, and Philly should expose that tonight.



GL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Panthers -113 vs Wild
Pretty good number for the home team...the Wild are not strong on the road, and are still missing Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Owen Nolan and Marek Zidlicky.

1.5 Units

[FlyersFan]

JML- GL!.....liking FLA tonight as well.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Canucks/Wings Under 5.5 -138
The Canucks are one team that actually plays the Red Wings tight...over the last 3 years, 9 of 10 games between these two have gone under 5.5 goals. The only thing that scares me is Detroit really hasn't broken out yet this year, but with Zetterberg doubtful tonight, Luongo in net, and the history...I don't expect it tonight.

1.5 Units

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Stars/Blues Over 5 -142
Not sure why this is 5?? One thing STL usually knows how to do is score. They've been over all three games this year, and have been 12-4-2 on the Over in last 18. I guess its a 5 because of Dallas, but this team will score goals this year, IMO. We also look to be having a Tobias Stephan/Manny Legace goalie matchup tonight...not exactly Roy/Brodeur. STL has really played a wide open game this year, and I don't think they'll be drawing 5 totals very many times this year.

1.5 Units

With the shootouts, under 5s are hard to cash as the most popular score 3-2 pushes. So any 2-2 tie you know you're cheering for a push at best. Wagering a 5 under with 2 evenly matched teams is tough...as you really need a 2-1 or 3-1 win only. A mismatched game? Even a simple 4-1 win puches. A NJ/Van 5, I can see, but other than that it's tough to cash in the Overtime era.

[FlyersFan]

JML- not sure if you have access to them but i would encourage you to start following the 2 1/2 Overs on teams. If you like STL to score then the better play in this game is STL Over2 1/2 (team) at less juice. I have been handicapping games and playing those team totals with very good success. The one thing you don't get is the luck factor if DAL happens to win 5-1, but if you like STL to win and score goals then why not play the Over2 1/2 at less juice? It's a better play if i read your writeup correctly.

[Stifler's Mom]

What you say about 5 totals is true....so why do they put up 5's and just juice the living hell out of em when the public pounds the daylights out of the over? I see 81% on DAL/STL over, and that's pretty much pounding it i'd say.

From your write up, when you say you're not sure why it's set at 5, it seems like you are saying that at o5 -142 you think the DAL/STL over is a good play (even though it's juiced to high heaven), but it might not be so great at o5.5 and closer to -110ish juice. I mean I'm not sure where else you think they're gonna go with it other than 5.5, unless you think they should push it all the way to 6, which 6 goal posted totals have been few and far between so far this year. Hell I can't even remember when there was one, although I sorta remember 1 or 2 last week.

Anyway, the lack of the hook leads me to believe the books think u5.5 would be a real strong play that they might get taken advantage of by sharp money, so instead they just let Joe Q whack away at a "much easier looking 5" with monster juice on it, that needs the same amount of goals to cash as a 5.5, but they're raking in far more money on the ones that actually do end up staying under this way, than if they look for the more even action on a 5.5 line with closer to even juice.

So my point is that if the most likely result is a push on alot of these 5 totals, I'd rather be getting +130 than -140 or -150, cause obviously it would take alot more overs than i need unders for me to come out ahead.

Hope that made sense, lol