JML Thursday NHL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

NHL YTD: 208-190, +22.27

Devils -191 vs Bolts
Devils -0.5 goals (reg) -112 vs Bolts
Great spot for NJ playing in TB. NJ is a top 5 team, and are have been playing like it since the break. They had a little bit of a letdown against Florida 2 nights ago, but that was in a bad spot after 4 big home wins over the likes of Boston and SJ. They've now had a day off after that loss, and will not get swept in Florida, especially by a depleted TB team. The Bolts defence is still injured, missing 3 of their top 4 rearguards, and they are still missing #1 goalie Smith, forcing youngster Ramo into another start against a good team. Last game TB gave up a whopping 49 shots, letting in 5 goals. In fact they've given up 17 goals in their last 4 games because of these defensive problems. I see more of the same tonight against a very good travelling NJ team. The Devils are the NHL's second best road team, and had won 7 straight away from home before the loss against a good Panthers team on Tuesday. Bolts are the league's second worst home team, and have not looked good on this homestand at all. The Devils also own the Bolts... winning the last 8 of 9 in this matchup, including a 7-3 blowout in this same building back in November. Weekes goes for NJ, and he's been just as good as Clemmensen. Ramo's been brutal for the most part this year, in the AHL or the NHL.

Hurricanes -144 vs Ilses
I'll fade the league's worst team, on a b2b, a 3/4 and a 4/6, and off a game with their biggest rival, losing to the Rangers last night. NYR games are really the only games that can matter to NYI at this point, and I expect a letdown...especially for a tired team. They were handled pretty easily by a struggling NYR team, losing 3-1 and getting outshot 38-26. The Canes are also a pretty decent road team this year, and have won three straight away from home, including impressive wins over Buffalo & SJ. They're still in the hunt for a playoff spot, have the better talent, are better rested, and are in the better spot.

4 Units Each


GL!

[Niners<Pats]

bol happy thirsty thursday too

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thx NP


Canucks -124 vs Sens
I'm not buying Ottawa's little win streak last week...I think it was an aberration, and they are still not a playoff-quality team. Losing Captain Alfie last game doesn't help an already thin team either. I AM buying Vancouver's run lately. I have said it will take them a little while for Sundin and the others to click, and with Luongo back healthy...they've been great. They are tearing up February (6-1), scoring alot of goals, and I think the books have them favoured on the road here for a reason. Canucks have too much depth for the Sens, IMO.

Penguins -171 vs Habs
Not my favourite play of the night, but it's a TV game, and I might as well continue the Montreal fade train. The Habs on yet another tough road game (6th straight), and on a b2b after a heartbreaker of a loss last night when leading in the 3rd. For the most part they've been awful on this trip, and in this last game before heading home, I think they'll be in tough again. Pens are not exactly lighting up the league, but are still dangerous, and are playing back at home, where they play their best hockey (6-2 in last 8 home games), and are also rested...something we can't say for the well-travelled Habs. Having Gonchar back has got to help, and I think the Pens get it done at home.

3 Units Each


GL

[Niners<Pats]

glad u added that montreal game i was going to suggest it to you after your writeup from tuesday about their injuries etc and wanted to remind you of their road results but you seem to have got it already

anyways i was wondering what you meant by teams on a 3/4 or 4/5 and where you get the -.5 spreads b/c my site only gives me -1.5 and +1.5 so its really keeps me to moneylines and its hard to lay -200 on teams (like the devils today), sure detroit beat the same team 5-3 but i am worried they might play flat like they did against the panthers (eventhough they are not the lightning)...if you have time, any thoughts?

i also think the sharks might be a -.5 pick for u tonight (if u can get it??) as they need to spread their point difference against detroit and im not sure how much i buy a 'road hot streak' as any home teams crowd can take you out of the game especially at HP pavilion

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

NP... 3/4, 4/6 means they are playing 3 games in 4 straight nights, etc. Surely a hard thing to do in a sport as tough and demanding as the NHL. Especially if it's a roadtrip! I always love to fade teams in those situations. Imagine an NFL team playing 2 games in one week...similar situation...

Yeah, FF has some trouble getting the regulation -0.5 goal lines as well it seems. Pinnacle has those lines, but I'm not sure if anyone else does. It is a great way of cutting down on the juice for -200 faves for sure. Some books have regulation 3-way betting which helps a bit (Home/Away/Tie). Look for that...

I'm staying away from SJ I think...got a funny feeling about that one. SJ seems to get ALOT of teams on a b2b, coming from SCali...maybe a reason for their good home record...but they are juiced huge, and even the -0.5 goals is at -200! Better plays on the board IMO...


GL

[FlyersFan]

GL!....back out of hockey mode unfortunately....like PIT tonight....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

GL!....back out of hockey mode unfortunately....like PIT tonight....

And I'm out of CBB mode...lol...you were right, road teams killed me....I was up about 15 Units, then lost it all in the last week or so...lol...

Thx!

[Niners<Pats]

wow -200 for that? crazy not worth it

well i am going to tail you on the NJ game as well as the avs and am thinking of pitt as well but who knos with them theyre so on and off

good luck to both of us and to flyers on the pitt play gl guys lets take some bookie money home

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

And I'm out of CBB mode...lol...you were right, road teams killed me....I was up about 15 Units, then lost it all in the last week or so...lol...

Thx!

you found some winners, but year in and year out the lowest percentage of ATS winners is the group of road chalk and road favorites of +3 to about -3/-3 1/2. after that it becomes a different story when you are grabbing 6 or 7. still always hate laying points on the road. i also had a system i was playing in the really bad conferences where you blindly bet every home dog of +1/2 to +5. That system hit 2 years ago at around 67% and it was about 61 something % last year.


hopefully i can get some pucks time this weekend. going to the UCLA game tonight....

GL!

[Niners<Pats]

i think cb jax r a worthy play as well against the leafs tonight as well as nothing has changed from two days ago when u faded them and CBS seem to be hot right now home or road

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

[FlyersFan]

[Niners<Pats]

so sad he's out for the seaons

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...nothings changed with CBus except for the fact that they are on a b2b. But They are playing well, the Leafs always play ****ty at home...because so many of the Canadian kids get up for playing in the hockey centre of the universe...lol...Nash and Mason are both local kids....I'm goign to add it...wtf...

Jackets -118 vs Laughs
CBus isn't too bad on the end of b2b's (5-7-0-3), and they are streaking, and playing a bad team.

3 Units


GL

[Niners<Pats]

hope i didnt push u into it but unless there is a variable like travel it should hit where did they play yesterday? flordai?