JML Tuesday NHL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

NHL YTD: 216-195, +23.52


Fading the two Florida teams tonight. Both are coming off home wins against the Bruins, and both are in bad spots tonight, IMO.

Bruins -0.5 goals -130 vs Panthers
Bruins -1.5 goals +145 vs Panthers
A good playoff team like the Panthers, playing well, and coming off a win over these same Bruins getting +190 on the moneyline??? Especially with Boston scuffling a bit lately? I think the books made this line 30-40 cents higher to entice Florida money, because they have Boston winning this game easily. So do I. Boston does have revenge over that loss, and are playing back in Boston on a home-and-home series (for the Cats) where they lost both road games in the State of Florida. But Boston outshot both their opponents badly in those two losses, and I think they come out flying at home tonight. Also...Florida barely a .500 road team, and Boston one of the leagues best at home. Florida's just in a bad spot...simple as that. Very hard to beat a quality team like the Bruins on the road half of a H&H after winning the first. Everything points to a Boston win IMO...including the -200 ML.

Oilers -0.5 goals -127 vs Bolts
Oilers -1.5 goals +142 vs Bolts
TB also coming off a home win over those Bruins...but they had no business winning that game, getting badly outshot 43-18. But sometimes the puck finds a way to go in. The fact remains that TB is still wafer-thin on the backend, are generally playing horrible defensively, and have given up 40+ shots in 4 straight games (3 losses). You might get lucky once in a while and pull out a win, like last game...but it is not the norm. TB also a brutal road team...and for this game, they come off what must feel like a great home win, but then travel with only one day off, from sunny TB into frigid Edmonton where the rested Oilers are waiting, desperate for a win, and coming off a solid home effort against Calgary. Great spot for Edmonton, IMO.

Regulation Lines: 3 Units
Pucklines: 1 Unit


GL

[FlyersFan]

GL!....traditionally a terrible spot play for BOS and a good one for FLA.....always want to fade a team coming home from a roadie in the first game and take a team in the first game of a roadie like FLA's spot. On the flip side as well....they may be taking BOS money from the public with most people saying exactly what you've said. BOS has to win, they will win, no way they lose etc......we'll see. hope it hits for you...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

GL!....traditionally a terrible spot play for BOS and a good one for FLA.....always want to fade a team coming home from a roadie in the first game and take a team in the first game of a roadie like FLA's spot. On the flip side as well....they may be taking BOS money from the public with most people saying exactly what you've said. BOS has to win, they will win, no way they lose etc......we'll see. hope it hits for you...

Gotta disagree with the coming home, and first game of the roadie theory here. I think thats out the window when it's the same teams playing each other...which it is with a home and home for Florida. If they can sweep Boston...I'll gladly give up my cash. I'd play a top 5 team like Boston coming home with revenge avoiding a home and home sweep every time....I actually don't think this one is remotely close...JMO..you might be right (hope not! lol) we'll see...

Oh...and I don't think I said BOS "has to win, they will win, or no way they lose"...lol... I just think it's a good spot with the schedule... I've actually seen a ton of people with the "I can't believe they are giving a good FLA team +200, especially when they have Boston's number, and Boston is slumping" and jumping on that side. I think books are giving a huge fave line for a reason...

Thanks!

[vazman05]

GL JML!!!....Boston should bounce back....after losing 6 of 7 i beleive

[Niners<Pats]

looks great so far jml! gl hope it stays

tailing u on EDM tonight

[FlyersFan]

i played BOS as i said i would in sunday's thread. was just pointing out that traditionally this isn't a good spot. but 5-1 so far i will take it.


what are your thoughts on the NYR going forward? that team is so soft it's not funny and it's full of a bunch of figure skaters (naslund, drury, gomez, zherdev) who have never been accused of ever outworking anyone. they don't have any type of grind line that is decent or any energy guys. i am still thinking of fading them but i hate to fade the old "new coach bump" that generally comes with a new coach.

any thoughts on the TOR/NYR rematch?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Sweep!

FF, Surprised to see you on the Bruins last night! But it was an easy win like I thought it might be.


I'll be on Tortarella tonight for sure. Leafs usually stink at home in big matchups, and with the new coach, and the revenge on the home and home...Rangers are the play IMO, even if they are soft and in a tailspin. I actually think getting Avery would be a good move for them.

[JB]

Hey JML....
Thanks for all the posts man

Just wanted to let you know that I tailed you on Monday (Sharks) and again on this post (I parlayed Boston and Edmonton) and got a couple of nice winners.

I was actually sitting around Tuesday and checking in just to see if you had posted yet....lol

Anyway....thanks for all the time you put in and then taking the time to post on top of that!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks JB...appreciate it! Glad you cashed....pucks have been good this month!